NFL DFS RB Coach Week 16: Top DraftKings and FanDuel Picks
Published: Dec 23, 2022
Updated: Dec 24, 2022
We flip the NFL DFS page over to Week 16. This week we have Saturday as our main slate of games with a small Christmas day slate lined up on Sunday. This slate looks a good one, at least at the running back position, and we have two studs in Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry, who are rolling right now. I like them to continue that trend, but who else do I like and why? Let’s dive into the top plays, values, and fades for NFL DFS action on DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 16!
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NFL DFS RB Top Plays
Saturday Main Slate
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
CMC has found his stride has a member of the 49ers and is back to putting up the elite numbers we have grown accustomed to as he has three straight games with at least 28 DK points. He is the most expensive back, but for good reason. This matchup with the Commanders is a tough one and could leave him being a bit lower-owed, but he is in a groove and he is getting the ball a ton (32 touches last week). The floor is great, the ceiling is elite. He is still in a league of his own and there is no reason to believe he won’t have another strong game this week.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
A third straight week of rolling with Henry for me? Yes. As you can see below, the results of having him in here in Weeks 14 and 15 were successful with back-to-back games of 25+ points. He destroys the Texans, and always has, and this year was no different in their first meeting as he rushed 32 times for 219 yards and two touchdowns to finish with 38.8 DK points. Houston ranks as the number one matchup for running backs this season too, so this is just the perfect storm of a situation for Henry too, once again, have a monster game against this team.
NFL DFS RB Mid-Tier Plays
Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas Cowboys
Zeke kept up his incredible consistency last week as he logged his SEVENTH straight game with exactly 15.1 to 18.1 fantasy points and logged his SEVENTH straight game with at least one touchdown. He is who he is right now and I think that continues to make him a very strong cash game play for his price tag. He is not flashing a big ceiling, but he isn’t disappointing you either. This matchup with the Eagles is very average, but I could see this game being a bit of a shootout, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Zeke finds the end zone for an eighth straight game.
Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs
McKinnon only has 16 total carries over the last two games, but that hasn’t stopped him from going absolutely bananas in that timeframe. He has scored north of 34 points in back-to-back games and that has largely come off his very impressive work in the passing game; he has 15 receptions over the last two games with 182 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Seattle ranks as the second-best matchup in the league for running backs this season and they are 29th in DVOA against running back pass plays, which is great for McKinnon (obviously). I wouldn’t expect another 30+ point performance, but 20+ seems very reasonable at this point and that makes him a great value.
NFL DFS RB Value Plays
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
Swift has mostly been bad, but he still has upside through the passing game as he has at least three receptions in five straight games and is coming off a game with five. It would be nice to see him get 15+ touches, but that just isn’t something we can bank on. The inconsistency and low ceiling are why his price is so low, which makes him an intriguing option this week to me. This is the cheapest he has been all season and this matchup against the Panthers is not a scary one. He can be played in any format at this price, but that does not come without risk.
NFL DFS RB Fades
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
Patterson may be the Falcons starting running back and get a decent number of touches, but he is not good for DFS at all. He hasn’t cracked 13 points in five weeks and has twice failed to reach seven points in that span. There is simply no floor and no ceiling here, so why roll with him? He is nearly the same price as McKinnon, who has topped 34 fantasy points in back-to-back games. On top of all that, this matchup isn’t very good either as the Ravens rank as one of the toughest on running backs this season. Full fade for me.
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