2026 Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers: Biggest Movers Ahead Of Week 5

Week 4 of the NFL season is in the books, and I’ll remind you that it’s important to not just look at the box score when evaluating players and stating whether their fantasy football stock is up or down. Many times, the numbers under the hood can paint a more accurate or complete picture of a player’s usage, value, or role. That’s the idea behind our Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers series. Throughout the season, we’ll monitor these underlying metrics and trends to identify fantasy football breakout candidates, waiver wire targets, trade targets, sleepers, and players who have seen their fantasy football stock go up or go down. Also, be sure to check out a few players I identified as possible fantasy football buy-low and sell-high candidates! If you want to stay ahead of your league, these are the fantasy football trends and fantasy football values you need to know as Week 4 is in the rearview mirror, and we head into Week 5 of the NFL season.

Biggest Fantasy Football Risers Before Week 5

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Wasn’t 2026 finally going to be the year that Blake Corum usurped Kyren Williams as the lead back in Los Angeles? Well, that hasn’t happened yet, to say the least, as Williams is averaging over 22 fantasy points (PPR) per game, and Corum has 22.2 total fantasy points on the year. Beyond just raw output, unless the Rams are leading, Corum isn’t a factor, and Williams is clearly the more trusted back in the pass game.

Per FantasyPoints Data, take a look at the snap share for Williams and Corum based on situation:

• Snap share when Rams are trailing:
  • Williams: 76.9%
  • Corum: 16.9%
• Snap share when Rams are leading by 7 or less:
  • Williams: 61.6%
  • Corum: 37.7%
• Snap share when Rams are leading by 8+: 
  • Williams: 59.5%
  • Corum: 40.5%

Williams is averaging well over five yards per carry; his 3.02 yards before contact per attempt would be his highest mark in the past four seasons, and his 0.37 missed tackles forced per attempt is three times higher than what it was last year (0.15), per FantasyPoints Data. There’s a lot to like about what Williams has done thus far, and it should only continue.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Aside from Collins missing two games, things are breaking about as well as they can for those who drafted Collins to be their fantasy team’s WR1 or WR2. In his two healthy games, Collins has a 26.1% target share, 3.02 yards per route run, 27.3% first-read rate, and 26 fantasy points per game (PPR), per FantasyPoints Data. He’s the unquestioned alpha in this passing attack, and he is clearly the straw that stirs the drink.

Now, aside from Collins continuing to be dominant when he’s on the field, let’s look at some other items here. Houston cannot run the ball at all (more on that coming in the next section), leading Houston to have a pass rate over expectation that is triple the league average, per FantasyPoints Data! On top of that, C.J. Stroud has been excellent this season, posting a 10+ average depth of target (aDOT) and 0.0 percent turnover-worthy play rate, per FantasyPoints Data.

And beyond that, all of a sudden, the Houston defense stinks! One of my fears of drafting Collins was that everything in the offseason led Houston to being a run-first team that was going to stifle opposing offenses and be content in playing low-scoring games. Well, Houston has the third-highest pass rate and the fourth-worst EPA/rush attempt, per FantasyPoints Data.

As long as he stays healthy, Collins is an alpha WR1 whose ceiling is elevated by his quarterback playing excellent football thus far in 2026.

Biggest Fantasy Football Fallers Before Week 5

David Montgomery, Houston Texans

I will expand on this, but simply put, per FantasyPoints Data’s on/off tool:

• “With David Montgomery on the field, HST loses -0.108 EPA/play and -4.7% success rate — the run game falls most (-0.204 EPA/run).”
• “With Woody Marks on the field, HST gains +0.161 EPA/play and +5.4% success rate — the run game jumps most (+0.204 EPA/run).”

Furthermore, amongst running backs with at least 20 carries, Montgomery comes in with the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, fourth-lowest EPA per attempt,  fourth-highest stuff rate, the fourth-lowest rushing yards over expectation, third-lowest yards before contact per attempt, and the league’s worst rate of being hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, per FantasyPoints Data.

Now, Woody Marks isn’t exactly excelling in many of the categories above, but he hasn’t been as bad as Montgomery.

Unless something changes, like the Texans actually involving the RBs in the pass game or Montgomery becoming more efficient behind this crappy offensive line, he’ll need touchdowns to save his days from a fantasy perspective. However, he’s lost the goal-line work the last two weeks, as Marks has handled all of the carries inside the 5-yard line the last two weeks, after Montgomery was the preferred option the first two weeks.

Montgomery has 44.4 fantasy points on the year, and 28.9 of them (65.1%) came in Week 1.

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers will turn it around at some point, right? Right? Well, if they do, Johnston may not be a focal point of said turnaround. He’s out there a ton and has a solid 73.8% route participation rate, per FantasyPoints Data, but that’s about the only positive at this point. His 1.01 yards per route run is below average, and his 14.2% target share is less than ideal when considering the state of affairs in L.A.

His 17.6% drop rate is brutal, and amongst wideouts with at least 15 targets on the season, his -2.92 yards per target over expectation is the second worst mark in the league, per FantasyPoints Data. Tre Harris’ role is growing, and Johnston is coming off a season-low 65.9% route participation rate in Week 4; overall, Johnston has been the worst of the “big three” in L.A. See for yourself with data courtesy of FantasyPoints Data.

Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

After a strong first three weeks of the season, Kelce was quiet in Week 4, catching just two of four targets for 15 yards. He now has two receptions in each of his last two games, and actually, three or fewer receptions in all but one game (Week 2). Now, what could make Kelce an intriguing option moving forward is that the injury bug hit the Kansas City wide receiver room. Rashee Rice pulled up early against the Raiders and is now dealing with a hamstring injury, and Tyquan Thornton suffered a gruesome ankle injury. In the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Kelce’s numbers without Rice took a noticeable jump, per FantasyPoints Data:

Kelce has looked good this season, and in Week 4, he didn’t play as much inline as he did in other weeks, coming in at 29.6% (2nd-lowest mark). However, his 40.7% of his routes from the slot against the Raiders was the second-highest rate in a game this season, and for the year out of the slot, he has recorded 3.28 yards per route run and a 153.3 passer rating when targeted, per FantasyPoints Data. He’s very good inline, so we don’t want that to go away, but 45.1% of Rice’s routes came from the slot, and Kelce is a logical choice to replace some of that.

Perhaps a down game right before the team’s bye week is the perfect time to make a move for the tight end.

Makai Lemon, Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith could be slated to miss multiple games, which will effectively push Lemon up the Philadelphia totem pole for targets. In Week 4, Lemon had an 18.5% target share, and his 79 air yards over the last two weeks is far more encouraging than the 13 air yards he put forth in Weeks 1-2, per FantasyPoints Data. This Eagles passing game has its warts, but they need to get it going, and with Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby likely out of the mix in Week 5, it’s time for Jalen Hurts’ right arm to move the ball, and they HAVE to get their first-round receiver going.

Lemon had a 22.2% first-read rate in Week 4, which will play, and when Lemon lines up in the slot, he’s been a solid separator with an above-average win rate, per FantasyPoints Data. The early returns of the Sean Mannion offense are suspect to say the least, but Lemon has a solid 80.4% route participation rate on the year, and given his 91st percentile missed tackles forced per reception, it would behoove the team to get the ball in his hands and let the playmaker make plays.

Fantasy Football Sell-High Candidates

Emanuel Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Before Jadarian Price was placed on IR, he was put in the doghouse, and Wilson saw an uptick in his usage. Well, in Week 4, the first game Price missed in full, Wilson handled a 58.6% snap share, 70% of the team’s designed carries, and a 34.6% route participation rate, per FantasyPoints Data. For the year, Wilson has recorded 3.58 yards per carry, a below-average yards-after-contact per attempt mark, and the 4th-worst stuff rate amongst running backs with at least 30 carries!

Zach Charbonnet’s return looms in the near future, so you already know Wilson won’t be getting any goal-line carries, and now Joe Mixon could be in the mix in future weeks. Sure, Mixon is starting on the practice squad, but this running game needs a spark, and the last time we saw Mixon, he ran for 1,000 yards with the Texans in 2024. 

Wilson hasn’t been very efficient, and he’s going to need touchdowns, but once Charbonnet is active, those goal-line carries will be taken away from Wilson. This Seattle RB room could be an even worse time share than expected, so get out of the Wilson sweepstakes while you can still fetch a half-decent return.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Since Jordan Mason went down, Aaron Jones has been solid for fantasy managers, totaling 20+ touches in all three games! In fact, across those three weeks, he’s averaged 20 carries for 85.7 yards per game, and 4.7 targets and 22.7 receiving yards per game. Oh, not to mention just under 14 fantasy points (PPR) per game. However, the reason to sell high is that once Jordan Mason comes back, the window to trade Jones for optimal value will be gone.

Back in Week 1, Jones was the 1B team for this team, with Mason serving as the 1A. In that game, Mason had a 47.5% snap share and handled 44.1% of the team’s attempts, per FantasyPoints Data. Meanwhile, Jones came in at a 42.6% snap share and 35.3% of the team’s rushing attempts. “But Colby, surely Jones was more involved in the passing game.” While Jones had one target and Mason had zero, the two had the same route participation rate.

Jones can’t handle this type of workload, and the return of Mason gives the Vikings a competent back to handle some of the rushing load. Now, here’s your window. Mason will miss the team’s next game, the Vikings go one bye in Week 6, and Mason will return in Week 7.