Week 7 of the NFL season is in the books, and I’ll remind you that it’s important to not just look at the box score when evaluating players and stating whether their fantasy football stock is up or down. Many times, the numbers under the hood can paint a more accurate or complete picture of a player’s usage, value, or role. That’s the idea behind our Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers series. Throughout the season, we’ll monitor these underlying metrics and trends to identify fantasy football breakout candidates, waiver wire targets, trade targets, sleepers, and players who have seen their fantasy football stock go up or go down. Also, be sure to check out a few players I identified as possible fantasy football buy-low and sell-high candidates! If you want to stay ahead of your league, these are the fantasy football trends and fantasy football values you need to know as Week 7 is in the rearview mirror, and we head into Week 8 of the NFL season.
Biggest Fantasy Football Risers Before Week 8
Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears
It was later than expected, but the elite TE1 production we all envisioned from Loveland is finally starting to happen! Since Caleb Williams has returned from injury, Loveland has caught 13 of 18 targets for 134 yards and two touchdowns. What’s interesting is that his route share out wide and in the slot has dropped, and he’s lined up inline over half of the time in each of the last two weeks. Over the last two weeks, he has 2.18 yards per route run when lined up inline, per FantasyPoints Data, and 3.23 yards per route run when lined up in the slot. He’s going to get moved around the formation, and the biggest development here is that he’s been a focal point of the offense the last two weeks.
Loveland is one of just five tight ends with at least 17% of their team’s air yards and a first-read rate of at least 22%, per FantasyPoints Data. The other four are Trey McBride, Isaiah Likely, Brock Bowers, and George Kittle, and those four just so happen to be the top four tight ends in fantasy points per game (PPR scoring).
Omar Cooper Jr., New York Jets
On 50 routes run this year, Cooper Jr. has 4.96 yards per route run, and his 12 receptions have resulted in him averaging over 20 yards per reception, per FantasyPoints Data. He’s handled 32.5% of the team’s air yards over the last two weeks, not to mention a 29.3% first read rate and 158.3 passer rating when targeted, per FantasyPoints Data. Geno Smith has supported wideouts for fantasy before, and Cooper is so good once the ball is in his hands. Over the last two weeks, his 8.18 yards after catch per reception, 2.18 yards after contact per reception, 33% explosive reception rate, and 0.18 missed tackles forced per reception are all above the league average, per FantasyPoints Data.
He’s settled in as the team’s primary slot receiver, and out of the slot this year, he’s posted 0.24 targets per route run and 5.70 yards per route run, per FantasyPoints Data.
Biggest Fantasy Football Fallers Before Week 8
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Over the last two weeks, Collins has just five receptions on nine targets for 80 yards, not to mention 1.54 yards per route run, per FantasyPoints Data. C.J. Stroud is spreading the ball around a bunch, and at least over the last two weeks, Collins hasn’t been given that alpha treatment. He’s tied with Xavier Hutchinson for the second-highest target share on the team per FantasyPoints Data. However, the targets per route run really highlights Collins’ near disappearance over the last two weeks. Marvin Harrison, Xavier Hutchinson, Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, and Kayshon Boutte all have a higher targets per route run metric than Collins (0.17), per FantasyPoints Data.
Nick Caley hasn’t shown the ability or willingness to try to scheme Collins open, and if the opposing team wants to take Collins out of the game, it appears that Stroud is fine looking to some of his other weapons. In fact, Collins has had a sub-20% target share in three straight games, and the last time that happened in the regular season was Week 17 of 2024 through the 2025 season opener.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
After posting 50+ yards or a TD in each of the first four games of the season, Johnson’s fantasy relevance has faded in recent weeks. He has just five receptions on seven targets for 23 yards over the last three weeks, and he’s posted route participation rates of sub-60% in back-to-back games, per FantasyPoints Data. For a frame of reference, he was at 64+ percent in four of the first weeks, per FantasyPoints Data.
He’s likely having to stay in to help pass protect, and that has surely impacted his statistical output. The other concern here with Johnson is that Jordyn Tyson’s return looms in the seemingly near future, giving Tyler Shough another weapon, and thus, Johnson another competitor for targets. Oh, and Noah Fant and Oscar Delp also get in the mix just enough to take away from Johnson.
Of the 19 tight ends who have at least 30 targets on the year, the average route participation rate is 71%, and again, Johnson sits at 59.6% over the last three weeks, per FantasyPoints Data. That’s not going to cut it.
Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates
Dylan Sampson, Cleveland Browns
A knee injury he sustained in the season opener sent him to IR for over a month, but in his first game back, there were a lot of encouraging things. Quinshon Judkins is the RB1 for this team, but Judkins’ 51% snap share was just a tick above Sampson’s 47%, per FantasyPoints Data. Now, Sampson’s six carries pale in comparison to Judkins’ 17, but Sampson had a healthy 39.5% route participation rate, and his 72% snap share on third down trumped Judkins’ 18.2%, per FantasyPoints Data.
It was just six carries, but he averaged 7.5 yards per carry, had an explosive run, and had a solid 2.17 yards after contact per attempt in Week 7, per FantasyPoints Data. Sampson’s fantasy value isn’t based on what he’ll do on the ground, but his work in the passing game is surely his bread-and-butter. He caught all three of his targets for 32 yards in Week 7, and running backs will catch passes in Cleveland. Deshaun Watson has thrown to the RB position above the league average, and his checkdown rate is also above the league average, per FantasyPoints Data.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Henry is an RB1 in fantasy football right now, probably not to the surprise of many. So, can you really buy low on Henry? If there were any opportunity, it would be now, given that he’s scored just 11.9 fantasy points over the last two weeks. No, that’s not per game. That’s total. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4, and over the last two weeks, he’s caught just two passes for six yards, while averaging 3.03 yards per carry and not even averaging a single yard before contact per attempt (0.85), per FantasyPoints Data.
The key here is that Lamar Jackson is coming back, and Henry’s fantasy value is at its highest when Jackson is commanding the offense. Sure, maybe Jackson takes a carry or two near the goal line, but all the numbers are far better with Jackson since Henry joined the Ravens. See for yourself, courtesy of FantasyPoints Data:
| FP/Game | Rush Yards/Game | Yards Before Contact per Attempt | Explosive Run Rate | |
| Lamar Jackson (36 G) | 18.55 | 103.3 | 3.0 | 15.0% |
| Tyler Huntley (5 G) | 19.52 | 98.4 | 2.1 | 10.0% |
The fantasy points per game with Huntley is skewed by his 216 yards and 4 TDs against Green Bay last season. Without that game, he’s averaging just 13 fantasy points per game in Huntley’s starts.
The buy-low window will slam shut once the ambiguity around Jackson’s ankle injury clears, so now is the time to get in the Henry business.
Fantasy Football Sell-High Candidates
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Not much has really changed for Pollard, as the volume has been strong, but he just so happened to find the end zone three times in Week 7. He scored 51.3 fantasy points (PPR) through the first six weeks of the season, and then he popped off for 36.5 in Week 7! He’s heavily reliant on volume, and with Cam Ward leading this offense, consistently getting Pollard high-value touches may prove to be difficult. Overall, yes, he had a huge Week 7, but he doesn’t force a ton of missed tackles, is largely unimpactful in the passing game, and when shopping him around, here are the two narratives you push:
- Imagine when he gets traded and is the lead back for a better offense!
- Volume is king in fantasy football, and he’s getting bell cow usage!
If someone in your league wants to forget about Weeks 1-6 because of Week 7 or the “what could be” if he’s traded, let them have him. He was the RB40 in fantasy points per game through the first six weeks of the season, and if he stays in Tennessee, two of his next four matchups are against Jacksonville, which is not a good matchup.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Can you really sell-high on a player who hasn’t played in weeks? You can, and you do so on the back of his name value. Braelon Allen has been excellent the last four weeks, averaging nearly five yards per carry with 3.03 yards after contact per attempt, per FantasyPoints Data. Prior to Hall’s injury, he was the 1A in this backfield, outsnapping Allen 58% to 39%, and handling 68% of the team’s designed carries to Allen’s 25%, per FantasyPoints Data. So, they’ll go right back to that type of usage, right?
I do believe Hall will come back and be the team’s lead back, but I expect the split to be much closer than it was through the first three weeks. With how good Allen has been, you don’t just kick that guy to the curb! Hall was the RB13 in fantasy football through the first three weeks, though he was averaging just 3.2 yards per carry with a 2nd percentile rushing yards over expectation and 17th percentile yards after contact per attempt, per FantasyPoints Data.