NFL Week 5 is here and with it come the first bye weeks of the NFL season. With the bye weeks we have just 10 games on the NFL DFS main slate this weekend with a featured matchup of the Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the Minnesota Vikings. It's time to dig into our NFL DFS Week 5 projections and rankings. Each week we will break down our top plays, values and fades at the QB position to help you build your NFL DFS lineups for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slate.
Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!
NFL DFS QB Top Tier Picks
Chalk of the chalk as he draws this horrid Minnesota Vikings secondary. Mahomes was off his game on Monday night in New York against the Jets but he hadn't given us less than 20 FP in the three games prior which included back-to-back 25 FP efforts. I look for him to get things rolling once again in Week 5.
Tua was in the fades section of this same article last week and that turned out to be the 100% correct call as the Bills held the Dolphins passing offense in check. New week and new opponent puts Tua right back in the top tiers section. We just saw Geno Smith and Drew Lock have zero trouble against this Giants defense in Week 4 and now Miami returns home to face a reeling Giants team that might catch a case of the “Miami Flu”. Sign me up for some Tua Time this weekend.
I was warned by Howard Bender that a let down week from the Vikings was coming against the Panthers and he was 100% correct and I was 100% wrong. Thankfully, the Vikings now return home to face a Chiefs defense that just made Zach Wilson look like Aaron Rodgers. I will take my swings with Cousins here once again in a game with the highest projected total on the board.
Rushing upside is truly the king when it comes to DFS ceilings and we've seen that with Richardson so far in his brief NFL career as the Colts rookie QB now has four rushing touchdowns through what has essentially been 2.5 games of play. Throwing the football hasn't necessarily been his strong suit as the Rams held him to just a 44% completion percentage but luckily this week he is at home and gets a Titans pass defense that ranks towards the bottom of the NFL. If Richardson can keep his legs moving, he should do enough in the passing game against this defense to put him in reach of being the top scoring QB this week.
NFL DFS QB Mid-Tier Picks
It really looks like the Texans have something here with Stroud. The rookie QB threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers last weekend and the Texans have now won two straight games. What I love about Stroud's play is the fact that the coaching staff is letting their young QB lead the offense and throw the football. This matchup against the Falcons is also an interesting one as teams who usually play the London game tend to get the following week off for their bye but this isn't the case. You have to wonder if there will be any travel lag here for Atlanta this week and that could open some spots for Stroud to take advantage of.
I know, I know. I had Burrow in this article last week and touted the matchup as the best spot for him to have a vintage Burrow performance. He bombed, big time. The calf is still very clearly an issue but the team isn't going to sit him and the price tag keeps dropping as he draws another decent matchup. He is a pure GPP dart throw this week and someone that I would have in 1-of-20 lineups this week if that's how I was building them.
NFL DFS QB Value Picks
Oh my god, right? After looking like he didn't belong on an NFL field through the first three weeks of the season we saw Wilson actually put something together in Week 4 against the Chiefs. The Jets now head on the road to face a Broncos defense that let Justin Fields rip them apart for 2.5 quarters in Week 4. Am I confident that Wilson can put together back-to-back weeks? Honestly? No, not really. That said, he is just $4,900 and the Denver Broncos defense really is THAT bad that I would be willing to take a shot on the kid here if I was making multiple lineups.
NFL DFS QB Fade
Listen, people this week will definitely point out the home/road numbers for Goff and how he has been much more successful when playing in Detroit then when playing on the road over the past few seasons but he is going to be a full fade for me this week because this matchup against the Carolina Panthers is calling for 25 carries out of David Montgomery in my opinion. The Panthers have the worst run defense in football and Montgomery is cooking right now.