Looking for the best NFL TNF player prop picks for Week 9? The 5-2 Jaguars visit the 4-4 Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night, with Jacksonville a roughly 9.5-point favorite and the total near 40. Below, we break down our top Jaguars vs. Ravens player props, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.
Best NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Picks
Injuries have reshaped this game. Lamar Jackson is headed to injured reserve with a thumb injury, Tyler Huntley is out for the season with a toe injury, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano will make his first career start against a Jaguars defense that ranks first in rush defense DVOA. Jacksonville comes in after a 42-7 rout of Indianapolis. Here are the props we like best for Thursday night.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Player Props: Derrick Henry Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts
Henry leads the NFL with 158 carries (19.8 per game), but his workload has dipped as the Ravens have fallen behind, with 17 carries against Cleveland, 17 against Cincinnati, and just 11 last week in a 36-10 loss to Buffalo. He is averaging only 4.0 yards per carry, and this is a poor spot for volume, as Jacksonville ranks first in rush defense DVOA and allows a league-best 77.4 rushing yards per game. The Jaguars are roughly 9.5-point favorites with a total near 40, and a Baltimore offense averaging 11 points over its last three games is likely to be chasing points with undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano under center, which cuts into rushing attempts. The Ravens could lean on Henry early to protect Fagnano, and Jacksonville did lose defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton for the season, but a three-game stretch of 17, 17, and 11 carries and a probable negative game script make under 18.5 attempts look like a good bet.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Lawrence has been the NFL's hottest quarterback, throwing seven touchdowns and 516 yards over his last two games and 17 touchdowns on the season, including three on just 14 attempts in last week's 42-7 win over Indianapolis. He has four games with at least three touchdown passes, two of them with four, so this is a touchdown-efficiency play rather than a volume one, as the Jaguars rank third-fewest in pass attempts and Lawrence has thrown fewer than 30 passes five times. Baltimore ranks 24th in DVOA against WR1, 28th against WR2, and 29th against tight ends and runs zone coverage 78.6% of the time, and Lawrence went 7-of-9 for 167 yards and all three touchdowns against zone last week. The Ravens will start an undrafted rookie quarterback on a short week, which should give Jacksonville short fields and extra possessions. A lopsided script could trim his attempts, but clearing 1.5 touchdown passes looks very reasonable.
Thursday Night Football Player Props: Joe Fagnano Over 1.5 Interceptions
Fagnano is an undrafted rookie making his first career start on a short week, and his debut was a rough one, as he completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards with an interception and a lost fumble while the Bills sacked Baltimore's quarterbacks four times and hit them 12 times. He is also dealing with an ankle injury from that game, though he went from limited in Monday's walkthrough to a full participant on Tuesday. Jacksonville ranks fourth in overall defensive DVOA and 12th against the pass, shares the league's best turnover margin at plus-7, and forced three turnovers against the Colts, including two interceptions. With the Ravens averaging 11 points over their last three games, an offensive line that has struggled, and Jacksonville holding opponents to 77.4 rushing yards per game, Baltimore may have to put the ball in a rookie's hands. Two interceptions is a high bar, and Baltimore may play conservatively, but a rookie under pressure against a takeaway-hungry defense looks like a fair price if the Ravens are chasing points.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets: Parker Washington Anytime TD
Washington leads the Jaguars with 432 receiving yards and has four touchdowns on 27 catches and 48 targets through seven games, scoring in three of them, including a two-touchdown, 124-yard game against Philadelphia. He is Trevor Lawrence's most productive slot option and averages 16.0 yards per catch, and Jacksonville has scored 73 points over its last two games with Lawrence throwing seven touchdowns. Baltimore ranks 24th in DVOA against WR1 and 28th against WR2 and has allowed 13.7 yards per target on deep throws to the left side of the field, which suits Washington's downfield role. He has been quiet over his last two games, with five catches and no touchdowns, and last week's two targets were a season low in a blowout where Lawrence threw only 14 passes, so a lopsided script is the main risk. With Baltimore starting an undrafted rookie quarterback and Lawrence at his hottest, the touchdown chances should be there, and an anytime touchdown looks like a fair play at plus money.
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