Looking for the best NFL SNF player prop picks for Week 9? The 3-5 Buccaneers visit the 6-2 Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday night, with Chicago a 6.5-point favorite and the total near 47. Below, we break down our top Buccaneers vs. Bears player props, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.
Best NFL Sunday Night Football Player Prop Picks
The league's best defense by DVOA meets the league's top offense by total yards, with Tampa Bay riding a run-heavy approach that has produced two straight wins and Chicago coming off a dominant win in Seattle on Monday night. Baker Mayfield is still working back from a thumb injury, and Caleb Williams has not thrown an interception since returning. Here are the props we like best for Sunday night.
Buccaneers vs. Bears Player Props: Caleb Williams Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Williams is playing as well as any quarterback in the league, with 1,267 yards, six touchdowns, one interception, and a 104.6 rating in five games, and the Bears have not trailed in any of their three games since he returned from a hamstring injury. He has thrown for 305, 308, and 247 yards with one, two, and one touchdown in those games, so this is a matchup bet rather than a trend. Tampa Bay is the league's top defense by DVOA, ranking first overall, second against the pass, and first against both WR1 and WR3, and the Bears lean on D'Andre Swift near the goal line, with Swift scoring three rushing touchdowns against Seattle. Even so, Chicago leads the NFL in total yards (3,098), is a 6.5-point home favorite with a total near 47, and Williams has 36 straight games with at least 20 attempts and one or fewer interceptions. A Bucs offense that runs the ball this much could shorten the game, but a quarterback this efficient finding Burden, Loveland, or Odunze twice looks like a fair play.
Buccaneers vs. Bears Player Prop Bets: Luther Burden Over 4.5 Receptions
Burden leads the Bears with 56 targets, 42 receptions, 547 yards, and three touchdowns through eight games, and he has reached five catches in four of them, including seven against Seattle on Monday and eight against Atlanta. He averages 7.0 targets per game and has caught 75% of them, and with Williams healthy, he has 19 catches for 281 yards and two touchdowns on 21 targets over his last three games. Tampa Bay ranks first in DVOA against WR1 and WR3 and eighth against WR2, so this is not an easy matchup, but Burden tied Loveland for the team lead in targets and receptions last week and scored on the opening drive. His line sits right at his usual workload, and with Chicago a 6.5-point favorite, the Bears figure to be throwing to move the ball and build a lead. Clearing 4.5 receptions looks like a fair play on volume.
Sunday Night Football Player Props: Kenneth Gainwell Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts
Gainwell has taken on a much bigger role in Tampa Bay's run-heavy offense, going from 19 carries through his first six games to 14 carries for 88 yards against Carolina and a career-high 25 carries for 140 yards in last week's 16-0 win over Atlanta. He and Bucky Irving combined for 52 carries and 310 rushing yards last week, and the Bucs, whose passing game ranks last in the NFL and who won last week without completing a pass, have leaned even more on the ground with Baker Mayfield limited by his thumb. Gainwell's hip issue is no longer a concern after he moved from limited to full practice this week. Chicago ranks 22nd in rush defense DVOA and 21st against running backs and allows 4.4 yards per carry, though Jeffery Simmons will help, and the Bears are 6.5-point favorites, which could cut into rushing attempts if Tampa Bay trails. Gainwell has topped 6.5 carries in only two games, but he has 39 in the last two and needs just seven.
Buccaneers vs. Bears Player Prop Bets: Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions
Mayfield has three touchdowns and two interceptions through five games this season and has been limited since returning from a dislocated thumb, attempting just 14 passes in two games, including a 0-for-3 night in the rain in last week's 16-0 win over Atlanta. That volume is the biggest concern, but as roughly six-point underdogs in Chicago, the Bucs may need to throw more, and Mayfield, who can extend plays as Williams does, is more likely to turn the ball over. Chicago ranks eighth in points allowed at about 20 per game, is tied for fifth in the NFL with 11 takeaways, has five different defenders with interceptions, and added Jeffery Simmons, who helped create consistent four-man pressure in Seattle. With his thumb still a question, a Tampa Bay passing game that ranks last in the league, and a Bears defense that creates turnovers, an interception looks like a fair play if the Bucs are forced to throw.
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