The best NFL games don’t always have to come from two powerhouse teams. Sometimes you just need a couple of fairly evenly-matched teams with the ability to put points on the board. That’s what we should have this week, with a close enough spread and a decently high over/under between the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints.

Both teams are at different points in their NFL journey. The Patriots have certainly looked a little more competitive than the Saints thus far. But both teams have hope under new leadership, and they’re both coming off a win, so they’ll try to keep that momentum rolling this Sunday. 

Even if you just want to see the Patriots vs. Saints odds and have Patriots vs. Saints picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus! 

Patriots vs. Saints Predictions For NFL Week 5, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Given that these teams aren’t in the same conference, they don’t square off particularly often. They’ve played twice over the last five years, with the Saints winning both in 2021 and 2023. There have been a lot of changes to these two organizations over the last couple of years, including new quarterbacks and coaches for both teams, so there’s not much to take away there.

The Patriots are now 3-2 on the season. They’ve been in every game thus far and just managed to knock off the undefeated, AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills last week. The Saints are also coming off a win with a 26-14 victory over the Giants, though it is their only win so far of the season after losing to the Bills, Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals to start off. 

 

 

 

New England Patriots: Stefon Diggs Turning A Corner?

The Patriots as a whole have had some issues with fumbling. They’re currently fumbling at the third-highest rate behind only the Vikings and Jets. Drake Maye and Antonio Gibson have each lost two, but it’s Rhamondre Stevenson who has lost three - a trend going back to last year. With Antonio Gibson out, you can’t really bench Stevenson, but maybe it’s time we see TreVeyon Henderson, who hasn’t lost a fumble dating back to high school.

Perhaps it was the revenge game narrative vs. his former team, but Stefon Diggs seemingly found another gear against the Buffalo Bills. He has 10 catches for 146 yards, making it the second game in a row with 100+ receiving yards. He and Hunter Henry have been the most reliable options for Drake Maye as of late. 

The big question for the Patriots' defense right now is whether Christian Gonzalez will play or not. Unfortunately for us, Mike Vrabel has already stated that the decision will be made “90 minutes before the game," when the NFL requires all teams to declare inactives. They have been solid against the pass when Gonzalez plays, but have been brutal when he doesn’t. The front seven, led by offseason acquisition Milton Williams, has been solid thus far. 

New Orleans Saints: Spencer Rattler Battling For His Job

Spencer Rattler has not played particularly poorly. But this is what happens with fifth-round picks. You don’t have the job security of a first-overall draft pick, who can lose as much as they want in their debut season. He’s fighting for his job to keep second-round pick Tyler Shough at bay.  

Alvin Kamara also seems to have some worries about his role as of late. He’s still getting the receiving work, but last week was the first time in as long as I can remember that another back got more carries in a normal game-script. Kendre Miller has emerged on the scene along with other weapons Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson.

On defense, the Saints continue to lean on Demario Davis to rack up big tackles. He’s helped keep their run defense as a middle-of-the-road unit so far, though the Saints pass defense has had their struggles. They rank as a bottom-five team in DVOA per FTN Fantasy and they have especially struggled against WR1s. 

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Saints Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

As promised, the latest Patriots vs. Saints odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Saints: Rashid Shaheed Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

This is a bet we’re placing regardless of whether Christian Gonzalez is playing. If Gonzalez is in there, he’s going to face a lot of Chris Olave. If Gonzalez is out, that shifts the coverage over and gets Rashid Shaheed an even weaker assignment. Either way, we like the setup for Shaheed to make a big play or two.

Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Patriots are currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per snap while in man coverage. Despite that, they are playing man coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the league. Shaheed himself leads the Saints in productivity vs. man and has averaged 2.19 yards per route run vs. man per Player Profiler, good for WR25. He’s hit this 45.5 number in three of the last four games (the other game he had 42 yards).

We considered taking the “long boy” here and betting on Shaheed’s longest reception line of 20.5. And that’s still a decent bet. But the combination of the Patriots being decent up front, along with the data shared above on zone, has us betting on Rashid Shaheed to just have a solid overall day here.

 

 


 

Patriots vs. Saints Injury Report & Latest News

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:

NE Patriots

NO Saints

 

 

 

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