Week 5 brings the wettest Sunday slate of the season so far. A system over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast puts Giants-Commanders, Colts-Steelers, and Browns-Jets at 90 percent rain or higher with gusts of 21 to 25 mph, while Broncos-Chargers adds a windy, 40 percent rain setup at SoFi Stadium. The betting market has barely reacted. The Browns-Jets and Colts-Steelers totals are unchanged from their openers and Giants-Commanders is down just one point, so the weather may be underpriced. Here is every game and what it means for your DFS builds.

NFL Week 5 Weather Forecast

Sunday, October 11 (London)

  • Eagles at Jaguars, 9:30 AM ET, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium: 55 degrees, rain at 44 percent at kickoff and rising to 58 percent by noon ET, light 3 to 4 mph wind.

Sunday, October 11 (1:00 PM ET)

  • Bears at Packers, Lambeau Field: 72 to 77 degrees, dry, 7 mph wind with gusts to 15 mph.
  • Bengals at Dolphins, Hard Rock Stadium: 89 degrees, rain at 8 to 16 percent, 9 mph wind with gusts to 16 mph.
  • Browns at Jets, MetLife Stadium: 64 degrees, rain at 60 percent early and 90 percent from 2 PM on, 9 to 10 mph wind with gusts building to 21 mph. Some model guidance suggests light rain rather than a downpour.
  • Texans at Titans, Nissan Stadium: 69 to 72 degrees, rain at 30 percent easing to 18 percent, wind 10 mph building to 15 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
  • Colts at Steelers, Acrisure Stadium: 64 to 68 degrees, rain at 98 percent through 1 PM and 80 percent after that, 12 to 13 mph wind with gusts to 21 mph.
  • Raiders at Patriots, Gillette Stadium: 62 degrees, rain at 1 to 12 percent, 6 to 7 mph wind with gusts to 16 mph.
  • Vikings at Saints, Caesars Superdome: fixed dome closed, no weather impact.
  • Giants at Commanders, Northwest Stadium: 66 to 68 degrees, rain at 99 percent through 1 PM and 83 percent after that, 13 mph wind with gusts to 25 mph.

Sunday, October 11 (afternoon and night)

  • Broncos at Chargers, 4:05 PM ET, SoFi Stadium (fixed canopy, open-air): 65 to 67 degrees, rain flat at 40 percent, 15 mph wind with gusts to 23 mph.
  • Lions at Cardinals, 4:25 PM ET, State Farm Stadium: retractable roof closed, no weather impact.
  • 49ers at Seahawks, 4:25 PM ET, Lumen Field: 58 to 60 degrees, dry, 8 to 10 mph wind with gusts to 15 mph.
  • Ravens at Falcons, 8:20 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium: retractable roof closed, no weather impact.

Monday, October 12

  • Bills at Rams, 8:15 PM ET, SoFi Stadium (fixed canopy, open-air): 60 to 65 degrees, rain at 63 percent in the pregame hour and 40 percent from 8 PM on, 10 mph wind with gusts to 16 mph.

Worst Weather Games in Week 5

The Northeast Storm Games

Giants at Commanders has the worst forecast of the week. Jayden Daniels returns from his elbow dislocation in a brace after a rough start (29-of-51, 56.9 percent, 260 yards, and three touchdowns in two games), and he will be without Stefon Diggs (hamstring) while Terry McLaurin (hamstring) was back at practice Friday. The Giants are 3-1 and atop the NFC East despite losing Jaxson Dart for the season. Expect a run-heavy, low-scoring game.

Colts at Steelers pits two offenses that tend to give the ball away. Daniel Jones is second in the league with seven turnovers, five of them in the last two games, and he threw for only 143 yards in last week's win while Jonathan Taylor carried the offense. Pittsburgh has eight takeaways, tied for second most, while Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times and the skill group is thin, with Michael Pittman expected to miss several weeks and Rico Dowdle (toe) questionable. Short-area targets like tight ends Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth are the safest places for the ball.

Browns at Jets has the highest rain number of the three, though the model guidance leans lighter. Cleveland is 3-1 with 21 or more points in three straight games and solid play from Deshaun Watson, who did turn it over twice last week. New York is without Breece Hall (quad) and Adonai Mitchell (finger), leaving Braelon Allen, who played 94 percent of the snaps last week, as the lead back for an offense averaging 84 rushing yards per game. Cleveland's interior is thin as well, with defensive tackles Mason Graham, Mike Hall, and Kalia Davis all out.

The Wind Game

Broncos at Chargers is mostly about wind, and SoFi's canopy is open-air, so the gusts and the rain can both reach the field. Bo Nix has completed 66 of 99 passes under 10 yards but carries only a 58.2 passer rating on longer throws, which is the kind of throw wind makes harder. The Chargers are 0-4 and tied for the league lead in turnovers (10, including six Justin Herbert interceptions). They are missing tackles Joe Alt (neck) and Trevor Penning (concussion) with Rashawn Slater on injured reserve, and Quentin Johnston and Brenen Thompson are out while Ladd McConkey (foot) did not practice all week.

Also Worth Monitoring

Eagles at Jaguars in London has rain rising from 44 to 58 percent, but Philadelphia's health is the bigger factor. Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Marquise Brown, and center Drew Kendall are out, Lane Johnson retired, and Cam Jurgens was traded, leaving Will Shipley and Dameon Pierce behind a rebuilt line. Jacksonville is 3-1, and Trevor Lawrence has thrown only two interceptions in four games.

Texans at Titans pairs two 0-4 teams with moderate rain and gusts to 18 mph. C.J. Stroud has five touchdowns and no interceptions and threw for 347 yards last week with Nico Collins back, and Tennessee ranks 31st in completion rate allowed (73.2 percent).

Bills at Rams on Monday night has rain starting at 63 percent before kickoff and settling at 40 percent. Josh Allen has scored four or more total touchdowns in each of his first three games, and Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception every week. Buffalo's DJ Moore (shoulder), Ed Oliver (knee), and Dee Alford (ankle) all missed practice.

Best Weather Games in Week 5

The cleanest outdoor games are Bears at Packers, 49ers at Seahawks, Raiders at Patriots, and Bengals at Dolphins, which is hot and humid at 89 degrees but with rain no higher than 16 percent. The questions in these games are about health, not weather. Chicago's Caleb Williams remains out with a hamstring strain, so Tyson Bagent starts again, and Green Bay's guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are doubtful. Cincinnati's Ja'Marr Chase (concussion protocol) and Tee Higgins (groin and neck) are both questionable after full practices Friday, while Miami has allowed 25.3 points per game and 11 sacks.

Three games are untouched by weather. Vikings-Saints is in a fixed dome, where Minnesota is without tackle Christian Darrisaw and has Justin Jefferson (ankle) questionable. Lions-Cardinals and Ravens-Falcons are under retractable roofs that are closed by default, so the 80 percent rain and 33 mph gusts in Arizona's outdoor forecast do not matter unless the roof opens. In Atlanta, the total has dropped six points to 43.5, the biggest move of the week, with Lamar Jackson (ankle) and Trey Hendrickson out and Tyler Huntley starting.

Rain and Snow Impact on Fantasy Football

There is no snow this week, but rain is the main storyline. Heavy, sustained rain pushes teams toward the run and short passing game, hurts boundary receivers and deep shots, and raises the risk of fumbles and tipped balls. That matters most for turnover-prone offenses like the Colts and Chargers.

The useful lens is who benefits from a short, run-heavy script. Jonathan Taylor, Braelon Allen, and the tight ends in Colts-Steelers are the kinds of players whose roles hold up in the rain, and kickers in the three Northeast games deserve a clear haircut on anything past 40 yards. The moderate rain in London, Nashville, and Los Angeles is less likely to change game plans. Since the totals in the wettest games have barely moved, recheck the lines Sunday morning in case the market catches up.

Wind Impact on Fantasy Football

Wind is the second storyline. Broncos-Chargers is the clearest case, and the Northeast storm games add gusts of 21 to 25 mph on top of the rain. Texans-Titans builds to 15 mph by the fourth quarter. Wind at those speeds hurts deep passing accuracy and longer field goals. Everywhere else, gusts of 15 to 16 mph (Bills-Rams, 49ers-Seahawks, Bengals-Dolphins) are worth a glance for kickers but not a reason to move players.

NFL Games to Avoid in DFS Because of Weather

  • Giants at Commanders (top fade): the worst conditions on the slate land on Daniels' first game back, with Diggs out.
  • Colts at Steelers: heavy rain and two turnover-prone offenses make it hard to trust either passing game.
  • Browns at Jets: Cleveland's offense is steady, but the Jets are short on playmakers and the rain peaks in the second half.
  • Broncos at Chargers: driven more by wind than rain, with a depleted Chargers offense and a Nix who struggles on deeper throws.
  • Lighter downgrades: Eagles at Jaguars and Texans at Titans, where the rain chances are moderate and the injuries matter more.

Everything else, from the three dome and closed-roof games to the clean forecasts in Green Bay, Seattle, and Foxborough, should play out without weather being a major factor in how you build your lineups.