It’s easy to say “Ja'Marr Chase should bounce back”. It’s Ja'Marr Chase; it’s Joe Burrow. It’s one week. You know what is hard? Identifying which fantasy football sleeper rostered in less than 50% of leagues is going to break out this week. THAT is hard. And we are just stupid enough to try to do it.

In fact, we are going to try to do it every week. That’s what this article series is all about. We are calling attention to some sleepers who may or may not be lesser-known who could be THIS week’s fantasy football breakout. Not next month. Not in fantasy football playoffs. Now.

By the nature of that, we are going to be wrong MOST of the time. But that’s okay. Because with deep sleepers, you only need to be right once. That could change your whole season. And, at the very least, this exercise should hopefully help you recognize the convergence of talent, scheme, and opportunity that we are looking for so you can identify YOUR OWN breakout sleepers. Doesn’t that sound like fun? 

Week 1 Quarterback Sleepers

Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins

We had Malik Willis in this article last week, and we came VERY close to the breakout. We got the rushing TD, we got 220 yards passing, but he was unable to find paydirt through the air. Mobile quarterbacks are the cheat code for fantasy, and I’m telling you guys, right now that it’s much easier to get these guys stashed now than it is to go get them later. All it takes is one game where he has a rushing TD and 1-2 passing TDs, and folks will realize that there is untapped potential here. He just scored 16.7 points without throwing a TD pass, and somehow his ownership went DOWN slightly on Yahoo.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

At their heart, the Texans want to play good defense and run the rock. That’s not always great for quarterbacks. But the schedule this year really might not allow for that. Last week he threw for 274 yards and 2 TDs against the Bills, and he’s almost certainly going to have to throw again against Joe Burrow and the Bengals this week. C.J. Stroud has taken his team to the playoffs in all three years in his career, and I think folks are going to realize soon that he’s just as good as a lot of the other QBs that are highly coveted in fantasy - especially as your QB2 in Superflex. 

 

 

 

Week 1 Running Back Sleepers

Demond Claiborne, Minnesota Vikings

Draft pundits liked Demond Claiborne coming into the NFL Draft. A blazing 98th percentile 40-yard dash will do that for you. But he ended up sliding in the draft all the way to the sixth round. Luckily, he landed in Minnesota, where the future of the backfield is a little bit murky. In fact, the present just became murky with Jordan Mason going on IR with a thumb injury. 

The other RB in the room, Aaron Jones, has had chronic shoulder and hamstring issues. That’s why they needed Jordan Mason to split that workload. They may now split it between Jones and Claiborne, which will give the rookie a chance to hit a home run. The Chicago Bears, who have a great offense and not-so-great defense, could create the perfect conditions for Claiborne to break out. 

Raheim Sanders, Cleveland Browns

You don’t get the nickname “Rocket” for no reason. Raheim Sanders was an explosive prospect with solid hands coming out of Arkansas. At 6’0”, 217 pounds, he’s got the size for more work than just satellite stuff as well. He went undrafted and has since bounced around, landing with the Browns. 

The Browns just lost Dylan Sampson this past week, and the injury looks pretty serious as he was put on IR. That opened the door for Rocket to take over that role, where he caught all three of his targets. The Browns are not likely to be playing out front for a lot of these games, so Sanders could be in for a decent amount of work as the pass-down back. And now he’s next up if something happens to Judkins. 

Week 1 Wide Receiver Sleepers

Tre' Harris, Los Angeles Chargers

We think Tre' Harris is a talented player. I have a ton of him in dynasty. But the issue is the scheme for Mike McDaniel uses multiple tight ends and a fullback. That highly consolidates the snaps among two or even one WR. So Harris was the odd man out behind Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey. That’s a tough spot to be in for fantasy upside, but it’s happened to some great players when they first entered the league, like CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Chris Godwin. 

With McConkey hurting his ribs last week, Harris jumped in there and actually led the Chargers in routes run (31 for him, 30 for QJ). The Chargers adding Marquez Valdes-Scantling has me worried that McConkey could miss some time here, but that creates a chance for Harris to potentially break out. And I truly do hate cliches like this, but sometimes you can’t put those guys back in the bottle. 

Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders

Let’s double down on Tre’s here with Tre Tucker of the Las Vegas Raiders. There were some questions about who would be the “WR1” for the Raiders, but after Tre Tucker ran 87% of the routes this week and Nailor only ran 58%, even with Brock Bowers out, we are feeling pretty good about Tucker.

This offense uses a lot of tight ends and a fullback, which limits the system to only one WR at times. We saw this with Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year. And it also uses a lot of pre-snap motion to move those guys around and set up for deep chunk plays (which JSN led the league in). Tre Tucker is not JSN by any stretch of the imagination, but if they keep deploying him as they did in Week One, he could have a mini-breakout of his own at some point. 

 

 

 

Week 1 Tight End Sleepers

Kenyon Sadiq, New York Jets

One rushing touchdown on an end around is not a “breakout”. But it is good to see from the incredibly athletic rookie. And there is still a lot of meat on the bone here, as Sadiq only played 28 snaps compared to 29 for Jeremy Ruckert and 44 for Mason Taylor. Despite the snap discrepancies, Taylor ran 17 routes to 12 for Sadiq and only 6 for Ruckert, so in his limited usage, Sadiq is already skewing towards pass downs. 

We have to keep in mind that Sadiq missed a huge chunk of the offseason with a hernia issue. So we could start to see Sadiq get slowly ramped up here as the weeks go on. That’s how it went for Colston Loveland last year as Cole Kmet settled into an inline role with Loveland getting more and more WR snaps. I think Mason Taylor settles into a Cole Kmet-type role, with Sadiq having big upside if he can capture more and more pass work. 

Greg Dulcich, Miami Dolphins

We are going to give Greg Dulcich one more week here on our fantasy benches before we move on to other options. Sure, he only got two targets in Week One. But he did run 77.5% of the routes for the Dolphins, which is actually a pretty strong route participation for a guy who is available on the wire in a lot of leagues. Caleb Douglas led the receiving corps alongside Malik Washington in Week One, but there’s no guarantee that carries over to this week - one game is an incredibly small sample size for this game we play. 

Where Do We Rank The Fantasy Football Breakout Sleepers This Week?

The toughest question, week in and week out, is whether you should just start the “safe” guys you have or whether you can just throw a dart at this week’s possible breakout. Lucky for you, we rank every one of these guys for PPR, half PPR, and standard rankings every single week. So check out the Fantasy Alarm Weekly Rankings to see exactly where these guys fall compared to the other options out there. If it’s anywhere close, it’s always more fun to throw in that sleeper!