Phew, how are we feeling out there, FAmily? October football is here, and while some people were treated to performances as hot as a pumpkin spice latte, others were tricked into biting into a rotten apple. T.J. Hockenson had one of the best fantasy games by a tight end ever, Rashaad Penny decided to make his presence known, and Austin Ekeler FINALLY found the end zone. On the flip side, Kyle Pitts left a sour taste behind after another sub-par week, Javonte Williams suffered an apparent knee injury that could sideline him for the rest of the season, and DeVonta Smith fell back to Earth after skyrocketing last week. I don’t know about you, but about halfway through the day, I was feeling like my fantasy teams were treating me like Charlie Brown on Halloween.


Let’s face it, we can’t hit the jackpot every week, but much like we mapped out the houses that gave out full size candy bars and avoided the ones that gave us fruit, we can adjust our rosters so they’ll reach their full potential. In case you’re new around here, this isn’t just your regular article where we simply reflect on the week. While everyone else is giving you mini bags of candy corn, I’m giving you Reese’s. Let’s dive in.

Geno Smith is a Top Streaming Option and Should be Rostered in Your Leagues 

This shouldn’t really be considered a hot take given his fantasy ranking after four weeks, but considering he’s only rostered in 14.6% of ESPN leagues, it has to be mentioned. People, take notice! Geno Smith needs to be rostered! Through four weeks, he’s averaging just under 19 fantasy points per game, and even though today’s monster performance obviously boosted that stat line, he’s still ahead of Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr, among others. I know this may seem like something from the Upside Down, but this is real life. Seattle has found more offensive rhythm each week, and if their defense keeps playing like they have been, Smith will be forced to throw to keep up.

Seattle’s schedule isn’t a cakewalk, but they do have two dates with the Arizona Cardinals and their porous secondary in Weeks 6 and 9, which coincidentally happen to be heavy bye weeks. Get ahead of your competition before the gauntlet is laid out and grab Geno Smith now. You can thank me later.

The Lions Offense is Fantasy Gold, but Deciding Who to Play is a Dart Throw

Despite their losing record, the Lions offensive players have been fantasy studs. They’re like the kid who always showed up with a homemade costume but somehow still won the contest because it was quirky and likable. The Lions aren’t good enough to win actual games, but we don’t care about that in fantasy. Through four games, the Lions have scored 140 points, and that has translated to top finishes for everyone from the usual suspects in Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift to Jamaal Williams and Josh Reynolds. The hot take here is that we don’t know who to start from week to week. When St. Brown returns from injury, will Hockenson still be a top option at tight end or should you stream someone? Will Jamaal Williams continue to vulture touchdowns from Swift? I’m not saying don’t start your Lions, but be prepared to be kicking yourself when the wrong option goes off on your bench.

Diontae Johnson’s Fantasy Value is Tanked With Kenny Pickett

One of the selling points on Diontae Johnson’s fantasy value this offseason was his ability to consistently earn targets. Even with Mitchell Trubisky under center, it can’t be that bad, right? The truthers were on the right track through three weeks, but that train got derailed today with the change at quarterback. After Kenny Pickett entered the game, Johnson saw two paltry targets and only converted them into 11 yards. Where is that 30%+ target share? Call me Oliver Twist, but I want some more!

The truth is that Pickett’s style in incredibly different than Trubisky’s, and as he’s a rookie, he’ll likely be asked to serve more in a game manager role rather than a true gunslinger. That’s not to say Johnson can’t have spike weeks, but those who were feasting on his targets in PPR leagues may be going on a diet soon.

 

Michael Pittman is a Risky Play Until the Colts Figure Out Their Offense

October is the time of year where we start seeing skeletons and other various spooky accessories displayed, but I didn’t expect the Colts to go full on method acting with it. Their entire team is the stuff of nightmares, and Michael Pittman has become the first casualty of the downslide. We were so high on him coming into the season, and through his first two games, he lived up to the hype. Unfortunately, the Colts’ offense has regressed and it looks like Matt Ryan can’t or won’t throw to anyone who is under 6’5” with Jelani Woods and Mo Ali-Cox being his primary red zone targets. In Week 4, Pittman was basically overlooked, seeing only six targets and catching only three for thirty one yards. It seems that Matt Ryan suffered a case of amnesia and forgot that he has one of the best pass-catching options in the league.


With Jonathan Taylor likely out for at least a few weeks, defenses will key in with a heavy pass rush, continuing to put pressure on Matt Ryan and forcing him into bad decisions. I love Pittman’s talent and was excited for him to have a former MVP as his quarterback, but until the Colts figure some stuff out on both sides of the ball, it’s going to be a scary situation in Indianapolis.

Josh Jacobs Has Entered the RB1 Conversation

We all know that the FAmily is fond of pie bets, and after Josh Jacobs’ performance today, it looks like I’ll be taking a big ole’ slice of humble pie to the face. Before the season, I wrote that Jacobs was a bust at his ADP, but he demolished a Denver defense that ranked fourth in rush DVOA coming into the game, finishing with 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns with an additional 31 receiving yards. His snap share ranked ninth in the league coming into Week 4, and if he sustains this volume, he will be a valuable starter going forward. The Raiders still have a lot of questions on the offensive side of the ball, but this was a great start. With lead backs dropping like flies, look for Jacobs to take a leap into the RB1 tier in upcoming weeks.

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