This is why we play fantasy football, right? To hit on this year’s breakout sleepers? For that one shining moment where we can feel like the smartest person in the room? Sure, winning money is great and connecting with old friends year in and year out is nice. But have you ever NAILED that dart-throw quarterback pick in fantasy playoffs when the guy randomly throws five touchdowns? THAT is the best fantasy football feeling there is.

So that’s what we’ll do here. Let’s look at the best fantasy football sleeper picks for Week One. Keep in mind, some of these guys are going to absolutely faceplant. Some of them might not even play much. That’s why they are so far down in the fantasy football rankings. But there is a glimmer of hope that could have these guys down in fantasy football Week One sleeper HISTORY. And, just maybe, they can keep it going all year long. 

Week 1 Quarterback Sleepers

Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings

At a certain point, we just have to say “screw it” and shoot for upside. Kyler Murray to me represents that line. If you have Joe Burrow, then great, start him. A lot of people are in the back-end QB1 range, high-end QB2 range, where there are actual decisions to be made. I don’t really care if Kyler Murray is a “leader” or even a “winner”; this guy is QB8 all time in fantasy points per game because he’s willing to run. With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Juaan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson at his disposal, I’m throwing him in there.

Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins

We mention this start all the time, but here it is again - every QB to run five times a game and play 16 games has finished top 10 in fantasy for a decade straight. Running is broken in fantasy football at the QB position; they call it the Konami Code for a reason. Malik Willis is just a discount version of the bet we are making with Kyler Murray because his team is worse, but he should be willing to run. And, statistically, that is all that matters. 

 

 

 

Week 1 Running Back Sleepers

Chris Rodriguez, Jacksonville Jaguars

Last offseason I wrote an article on Fallacies in Fantasy Football. There is one in there called Appeal to Consequences. The idea is that we assume whatever the best or most comfortable outcome is will be the actual outcome. But that’s not always the case. Because Bhayshul Tuten is explosive and a great pass-catcher, we WANT him to get the job. That would be the most fun outcome. But Chris Rodriguez, who knows Liam Coen going back to college, could be the starting running back. Or at least the goal-line one. And he could score multiple touchdowns this week against the Cleveland Browns if that is the case, even if he’s not a great pass-catcher or flashy in space.

George Holani, Seattle Seahawks

There is a lot of debate about Zach Charbonnet vs. Jadarian Price. But Zach Charbonnet is starting the year on IR - those questions really can’t be answered for a month, minimum. For now, the question is what the split will look like between Jadarian Price and incumbent George Holani. At only 3% owned on Yahoo, I don’t think folks are giving enough credit to the possibility that split could be closer to 50/50. This is also the team that won the Super Bowl, and they will use a fullback and blocking TEs, so half this backfield could be pretty valuable. 

Week 1 Wide Receiver Sleepers

Makai Lemon, Philadelphia Eagles

With all the rookie hype this offseason, Lemon actually got lost in the sauce a little bit. This happens when a guy is hurt for most of camp and doesn’t get much of a chance to show what he can do. But he’s still a first-round pick who Howie Roseman not only picked in the first round but traded up in front of the Steelers to get (who were confirmed to have been about to pick him). With AJ Brown gone, there is a chance there for upside. 

Ja'Kobi Lane, Baltimore Ravens

Ben Johnson is one of the most creative coaches in the NFL. We saw what he’s done in Detroit and Chicago. Well, Declan Doyle is his protege. And the Ravens hired him to bring that magic to Baltimore. Zay Flowers could be in an Amon-Ra St. Brown type role (we like him too), but there is an outside role open, the one that guys like Jameson Williams and Rome Odunze occupied. Rookie Ja'Kobi Lane has gotten a lot of smoke this offseason and, if he gets that role, he could pop this week. As we mentioned in the waiver wire article, Rashod Bateman (rostered in 3% of leagues on Yahoo) and Elijah Sarratt (0% of leagues) are widely available if they get the role instead and we need to pivot for Week 2. 

 

 

 

Week 1 Tight End Sleepers

Greg Dulcich, Miami Dolphins

If there is one thing we have learned over the years, it’s that opportunity is king. Talented players end up in bad spots and maybe less talented guys in good spots. Greg Dulcich ended up on a team that is completely devoid of high-end talent. It’s also a team that uses a fullback and blocking tight ends, which can consolidate the snaps among a few key pass-catchers. This team also had both Darren Waller and Jonnu Smith running 70% of their routes from a WR spot. This is not a long term play - this guy either pops this week against the Raiders or we drop him.

Elijah Arroyo, Seattle Seahawks

People often say these articles don’t go deep enough. That the “sleepers” are all rostered in their leagues. Where do you go then - how about a guy rostered in ZERO percent of leagues on Yahoo on average? I think there is a real possibility that the Seahawks use 12 personnel as the primary offense. That could put AJ Barner inline with Elijah Arroyo lined up in more of a “big slot” role. Imagine that AJ Barner is in the role that Dawson Knox, Cole Kmet, and Michael Mayer occupy while Arroyo gets to play the one that Dalton Kincaid, Colston Loveland, and Brock Bowers are featured in. The Seahawks really do not have a super deep or strong WR group that commands targets after Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so it’s not crazy to imagine such a world. And, in that world, Elijah Arroyo has upside. 

Where Do We Rank The Fantasy Football Breakout Sleepers This Week?

The toughest question, week in and week out, is whether you should just start the “safe” guys you have or whether you can just throw a dart at this week’s possible breakout. Lucky for you, we rank every one of these guys for PPR, half PPR, and standard rankings every single week. So check out the Fantasy Alarm Weekly Rankings to see exactly where these guys fall compared to the other options out there. If it’s anywhere close, it’s always more fun to throw in that sleeper!