Looking for the best Dabble NFL picks today to close out Week 1? The Broncos and Chiefs meet at Arrowhead with both Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix returning from season-ending injuries suffered last January. Below, we break down our top Dabble NFL picks for this AFC West opener, complete with player projections and the matchup angles behind each play.

Broncos vs. Chiefs: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Kansas City missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014 after Mahomes went down with a torn ACL and LCL in Week 15, while Denver won the AFC West outright before a Bo Nix injury derailed its own title chase. Both quarterbacks are back for Week 1, and both rosters retooled heavily around them, with Denver adding Jaylen Waddle to its receiver room and Kansas City signing Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker. Denver's defense, which led the NFL in sacks a year ago, headlines a game currently sitting at Chiefs -2.5 with a 43.5 total. Here's where we're finding the value on Dabble for this one.

 

 

 

Best Dabble NFL Picks for MNF, Week 1

Jaylen Waddle NFL Dabble Pick: Higher 7.5 1Q Receiving Yards

Waddle arrives in Denver via a blockbuster offseason trade that cost the Broncos a first-round pick, and he immediately becomes one of the most efficient weapons on the roster. He's finished as a top-15 wide receiver in yards per route in three of the last four seasons, and since 2022, an eye-popping 71.7% of his catches have gone for first downs or touchdowns. With Courtland Sutton commanding attention on the outside, Denver's offense should look to get its new toy involved early to set the tone. That plan gets even easier with Kansas City ruling out starting safety Chamarri Conner, who joins a Chiefs secondary that already lost Bryan Cook and Jaylen Watson in free agency and traded away Trent McDuffie this offseason. An early-scripted target for a big-play weapon against a shorthanded secondary is a great early-game recipe.

Kenneth Walker NFL Dabble Pick: Anytime TD

Walker was the biggest offseason addition to this Chiefs offense, signing a three-year deal worth up to $45 million after winning Super Bowl MVP with Seattle against New England. He instantly becomes a massive offensive upgrade after Kansas City finished 25th in rushing yards per game a season ago behind an Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt tandem that combined for well under 4.0 yards per carry. Hunt still found the end zone often in a limited role in that offense, and Walker steps into a far bigger workload with legitimate finishing ability near the goal line. As home favorites looking to establish the ground game and ease Mahomes back into action off his ACL recovery, expect Kansas City to lean on Walker early and often, including when the offense gets into scoring position.

Dabble NFL Player Projections for Broncos vs. Chiefs

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Waddle and Walker as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Dabble pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

How to Play These Dabble NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Get Over $50 in Bonuses

Ready to build a lineup around these picks? Sign up for Dabble with promo code ALARM and unlock over $50 in bonuses to get started. Just create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and the bonus offers apply automatically- no extra steps needed. Check out all of Fantasy Alarm's active offers for even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Week 1 finale that's already stacked with value.