Looking for the best Chalkboard NFL picks today? Week 9's Sunday slate features the league's leading rusher facing a Dolphins run defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and a Cowboys back drawing the Colts, who rank 30th. Below, we break down our top Chalkboard NFL picks for this Week 9 slate, complete with player projections and the matchup angles behind each play.
Lions vs. Dolphins and Cowboys vs. Colts: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions are 7-point favorites at Miami, and Javonte Williams and the Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites at Indianapolis, with both opponents ranking in the bottom seven in rush defense DVOA. Both backs should see heavy workloads. Here's where we're finding the value on Chalkboard for this slate.
Best Chalkboard NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 9
Jahmyr Gibbs NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 97.5 Rushing Yards
Gibbs is averaging a league-best 110.4 rushing yards per game, with three 100-yard games (156, 151, and 153) and eight touchdowns through seven games, and he is coming off 23 carries for 153 yards against a Minnesota run defense that had allowed under 100 rushing yards per game. Miami ranks 26th in rush defense DVOA and 27th against running backs, with a run-stop win rate that ranks 30th, and the Lions are 7-point favorites. Detroit has leaned on Gibbs to control games, and a shoulder issue did not keep him from practicing in full Thursday. Clearing 97.5 rushing yards sits just under his average, and the matchup should help get him there.
Javonte Williams NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 72.5 Rushing Yards
Williams has 528 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 134 carries, and he has handled 24 and 25 carries in each of the last two weeks, with a career-high 155 yards against Philadelphia and 56 on 24 carries against Arizona. Indianapolis ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA, is the second-worst team in EPA per rush, and traded away DeForest Buckner, and the Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites in a game with a 51.5-point total. Williams averages just 3.9 yards per carry and has topped 72.5 yards twice, so this is a pure matchup and volume play. Over 72.5 rushing yards looks like a good play.
Chalkboard NFL Player Projections for Week 9 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Gibbs and Williams as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Chalkboard pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
How to Play These Chalkboard NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Claim Your Welcome Bonus
Ready to build a lineup around these picks? Sign up for Chalkboard with promo code ALARM and claim the new-user welcome offer to get started. Just create an account, enter the code during registration, and follow the steps to activate your bonus. Check out Fantasy Alarm's Chalkboard promo code page for the latest offer details and even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Week 9 Sunday slate that's already stacked with value.