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Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics +1.5, Total: 204.5
This is technically a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals, but these teams couldn’t look any more different than they did a year ago. The Celtics changed 11 players in the offseason, but they have lost Gordon Hayward, Kyrie Irving, Shane Larkin and Daniel Theis to injuries. The Cavaliers famously traded half of their team at the deadline, but the only mid-season acquisition who has actually contributed in the playoffs is George Hill.
Both of these teams won close seven-game series in Round 1 but won short series in Round 2. Boston is 7-0 at home in the playoffs, and Cleveland needs to win at least one road game if LeBron James is to make it to his eighth consecutive NBA Finals. Boston has struggled to find offense at times, but that shouldn’t be as much of an issue against a Cleveland team that has a 108.4 defensive rating in the playoffs. On the other end, Boston has several defenders to throw at LeBron James, just like they were able to use multiple defenders against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ben Simmons in the previous two series. Look for Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Guerschon Yabusele to all defend LeBron at some point during this series.
Pre-Game Props
Q1. The last made shot is a two-pointer.
Only the Rockets have made more threes per game in the playoffs than the Celtics and Cavs. Of the teams remaining in the playoffs, Boston and Cleveland have the most made free throws. I’m going NO.
Q2. Both teams combine for 60 or more points in the 1st Quarter.
The Vegas Total for this game is 204.5, which is 51.125 points per quarter. It is worth noting two of the three regular season games between these teams went under 204.5, and all of those games came before Kyrie Irving’s injury. NO
Q3. Which team scores more points in the 1st Quarter? Boston has a +3 handicap.
Boston is +1.5 for the game, and with the way they have played at home, I’m not sure they shouldn’t be favored. Give me BOS.
Q4. Which team wins the opening tip off.
The Celtics won the opening tip in all three regular season matchups, though it is worth noting Al Horford took each of those tips for Boston. I wouldn’t feel quite as good about this call if Aron Baynes got the start, but Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love are pretty bad at jump balls. BOS
Q5. The first made shot of the game is a 3 pointer.
As we stated above, only the Rockets have made more threes per game in the playoffs than the Celtics and Cavs. Even more important for our purposes, 29.2% of Boston’s made shots have been threes, compared to 28.8% for Cleveland. I love those odds for a x4.8 payout. YES
Q6: Both teams will make a FG by the 11:00 minute mark.
I am going to go with NO for this question. I expect the Celtics to win the tip and score first, but I don’t see both teams scoring within the first minute or trading baskets to begin the game.
Players to Watch
Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum: The rookie has scored 20+ points in seven consecutive playoff games, and Boston is 5-2 in those games. The NBA rookie record for most consecutive 20+ point playoff games is 12 by Spencer Haywood in 1970. Boston may need Tatum to challenge that record if they are to win this series.
Jaylen Brown: Brown missed Game 1 of the conference semi-finals with a hamstring injury he suffered in Game 7 against the Bucks. He averaged 15.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 27.0 minutes in Round 2, but he had had three days off to get his hamstring healthy. Boston needs Brown to play like he did in the first round when he averaged 17.9 points in 34.8 minutes per game.
Al Horford: Horford went from being underrated his entire career to somehow being overrated against Joel Embiid. He is averaging 17.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.3 blocks on 57.8 percent shooting in the playoffs. For all of that, his greatest contributions are on the defensive end.
Terry Rozier: For Boston to win this series, they almost certainly need Terry Rozier to outplay George Hill. Rozier is averaging 22.0 points on 47.2 percent shooting at home in the playoffs and 12.8 points on 33.9 percent shooting on the road.
Cleveland Cavaliers
LeBron James: James is averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks in 41.4 minutes per game during these playoffs. As mentioned above, Boston has better defenders to throw at LeBron than Indiana or Toronto. Perhaps more importantly, they have a better coach to throw at him. Brad Stevens will almost certainly try to make LeBron work more on defense than he did in the previous two series.
Kevin Love: Love was the biggest reason the Cavs swept Toronto in the second round after barely squeaking past Indiana in the first round. Love averaged 20.5 points and 11.5 rebounds against the Raptors after averaging 11.4 points and 9.3 rebounds against the Pacers.
Kyle Korver: Korver’s improvement in the second round wasn’t quite as dramatic as Love’s, but you could argue it was equally important. Korver is averaging 13.8 points on 50.7 percent shooting in Cleveland’s eight playoff wins and 2.0 points on 20.0 percent shooting in their three losses.