NBA DFS Position Coach: March 17, 2016

I realized today the saddest part about being a small business owner in Massachusetts is that by the time you pay the insurance companies, state taxes, and federal taxes, there is rarely nothing left for you. I find it rather depressing. I realized today that essentially I am working my fingers to the bone just to pay them. So in a backwards way I work for them for nothing.

In this time of political unrest in our country I try and stay focused on sports. Politics mean little to me and to be honest I pay as much attention to politicians as they do me. Which is zero. I also care about them about as much as they care about me. Which is also zero, despite what they say.

Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George Bush, Bill Clinton, George Bush Jr., and Barack Obama. Struggle, struggle, struggle, slightly less of a struggle, struggle, and the greatest struggle. I have realized one thing over the 42 years I have been alive, spanning through several presidencies: nothing seems to change for me.

I have more important things to do like see who is currently crushing left-handed pitching. At least I can trust that.

Now let’s do some NBA.

I was a little surprised to see we have an eight-game slate on a Thursday night. As far as superstars go the super-high priced players are all for the most part, taking the night off. We still have the huge minutes up for grabs with the Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia Sixers both being depleted with injuries with Chicago pulling into the mix of things as well. This is a great slate to run some cash game lineups without feeling like you have to load up on superstars and scrubs to stay competitive.

From this point, all fantasy point numbers I reference will be FanDuel specific to save me from having to keep writing it. I use FanDuel more due to the lack of scoring bonuses. But keep in mind on sites like DraftKings you do get bonus points for double-doubles, three-pointers, etc.

So with a cat that keeps jumping in my chair and trying to use my laptop (I am not kidding, he hits the keys with his paws and tries to drink my coffee), a wife that feels like she is being a bit overdramatic so early in her pregnancy (boy am I in for it), and a 4-year old who will not behave, I bring you my final position coach article until next Tuesday as I am traveling to New York City for the weekend for Tout Wars.

Point Guard

Strategy

The point guard position feels rather thin tonight. Some of the better players are in bad matchups or produce terrible fantasy numbers. Overall, this slate is fairly easy for roster construction tonight.

Core Players

John Wall tops my list today back-to-back game or not. In the last 10 games Wall has managed to score over 40 fantasy ppg in seven of them going over the 50 mark versus the Sixers (58.3), Trail Blazers (51.5), and Bulls (59). It just happens tonight he gets the Sixers again who are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. Wall has had two double-doubles and a triple-double in the last three games and the second highest usage rate on the slate. With little to pay up for tonight I already locked him into my lineup in this hard to pass up matchup.

Staying in the same game tonight the Wizards are nine-point favorites with Las Vegas setting a high 216 expected point total which is the highest on the slate. This is by far my favorite game to attack tonight and Ish Smith certainly is in play as well. In six out of his last 10 games he has managed to score over 30 fantasy ppg including two 40-point performances versus the Wizards (40.7) and the Heat (42.1). The Wizards run in the middle-of-the-road versus point guards ranked 15^th but I am a big believer in past performance which drives Smith into the number two spot tonight.

Even though his price is up to $5,500 on FanDuel I am still rolling out Shelvin Mack tonight if I move off of my Wall-Smith combo. The “Mack Daddy” is finally showing the world why I have been singing his praises long before he became popular. His usage rate is still among the upper level of point guards and he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now in three straight. It appears the Jazz finally have a DFS viable point guard who also finds himself in a great matchup with the Suns allowing the 29^th most fantasy ppg to point guards and he is also a great “late bullet” tonight to keep your lineup alive to the end. Does it help he is coming off of a long overdue double-double?

Possible Value Plays

As you may have suspected a lot of the value if you decided to use it and I see no reason on this slate to push it comes in the form of Memphis and Philadelphia players. Isaiah Canaan is starting in the two and playing plenty of minutes. In the last five games he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in four of them with two of them going over 25. The Wizards are allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards so the matchups certainly is right. If you really want to load up on the limited amount of high priced players than Canaan could be your one cheap player to make it all happen.

Briante Weber is still playing more than 30 minutes per game. The last time I was saying things like this about a near minimum priced player his name was Shelvin Mack. In two out of his last four games Weber has scored over 20 fantasy ppg scoring 28.4 fantasy points versus the Pelicans on March 11^th. The matchup kind of sucks with the Bucks allowing the seventh fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but still, Jarryd Bayless? As long as he stays the near minimum to minimum salary playing over 30 minutes nightly I see no way you do not continue to throw him in a GPP lineup.

Shooting Guard

Strategy

I see some decent expensive players but for the most part I am avoiding them at the two tonight. The Bulls are a mess and I cannot imagine them running a recently injured Jimmy Butler into the ground further great matchup or not. As far as value? No one is jumping off the page at me at this time that I am willing to roll the dice on when I see no need.

Core Players

If you are going to spend up for one player tonight at the two and I am not myself than DeMar DeRozan is the best option. I have said before that as far as I am concerned he is the best shooting guard next to James Harden aka "Fozzy the Beard." Tonight his matchup could be better with Atlanta allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to the two but when you are talking about a player with the second highest usage rate at his position who has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in eight straight games this matters little. His price is high but you get what you pay for here, consistency from a player who has scored 25 points or more in five straight.

It is not often I will use three players or more on the same team but I am not going to lie, I am tonight. Even though I more than likely will be running only one lineup tonight with my DFS NBA exposure winding down and March Madness officially starting today, three Wizards will be finding their way into my roster this evening. Bradley Beal is one of them. Even though he is always questionable he is looking like his old self a bit. In his last two games he has scored 26.5 and 36.4 fantasy points facing the Pistons and depleted Bulls. Tonight he faces the depleted Sixers who are allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards, which is just enough to move it into favorable consideration.

Rodney Hood looks like he could be the play of the day. If Gordon Hayward sits tonight than Hood of course gets a major bump. In his last nine games he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg five times. His price is low at $5,400 on FanDuel and he is facing a Suns team allowing the most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. If there is ever going to be a night for things to line up for him to have a huge game it is tonight. I still would prefer him in GPP’s because he is very inconsistent.

52.4, 35.6, and 46.7. That is how many fantasy points Lance Stephenson has scored in each of his last three games. With the Memphis Grizzlies more depleted than our federal reserve Stephenson is playing over 30 minutes per game off the bench and throwing up monster numbers. Tonight he would be facing a Bucks team allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. His price is still amazingly low at $5,600 on FanDuel and as far as cash games go I well imagine he will be 90 percent owned and for good reason.

Possible Value Plays

The value at the two tonight if you are persistent in hunting it out seemingly lies somewhere with the Brooklyn Nets. Trying to narrow down whether to play Wayne Ellington or Markel Brown (who I disown) is maddening. Now you add in Sean Kilpatrick who is eating over 20 minutes per night and it makes the whole situation seem like avoidance is the best policy. It seems Brooklyn for the time being is content using the shooting guards as bodies and nothing else while shifting the offense to the frontcourt. Outside of GPP I would avoid, avoid, avoid. Did I say I would avoid it?

Small Forward

Strategy

In what I find a huge twist of events the small forward position tonight is chalked full of plays. Most nights I find this position quite tricky to navigate properly. I also find this position one of the hardest to get consistent fantasy numbers out of without spending up. There are numerous ways you can construct your lineup tonight and a lot of it I feel will depend on how you spend here.

Core Players

The Greek God, Giannis Antetokounmpo has the best fantasy matchup on the Milwaukee side things tonight with the Grizzlies allowing the 14^th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards. Well the Grizzlies are tired and beat up and the Greek mold of basketball perfection has scored over 60 fantasy ppg four times now in his last 10 games with little in the way of stinkers. His price is up to $10,200 on FanDuel which certainly drives home the need for him to have one of them 50 fantasy point nights for the investment to pay off. Something I am not sure of but when looking at the other players on the slate I see no one with the possible upside to get me 70 fantasy points. Something he did on March 13 versus the Nets (71.2). I look at it like this, with little to pay up for why would you not have him in your cash game lineups tonight? The guy does after all only have four double-doubles and three triple-doubles in his last 10 games.

Joe Johnson is in a good matchup tonight with the Hornets allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to small forwards. Smooth Joe seems to have slid right into his comfort zone in Miami scoring 26.6, 36.3, and 28.9 fantasy points in his last three versus the Bulls, Raptors, and Nuggets. His price is cheap at $5,400 on FanDuel and he is a great way to gain some exposure to the 210 expected point total in this one.

Matt Barnes is still in line as well for heavy minutes with the Grizzlies playing hostess to the injury bug. The Bucks are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and as up and down as Barnes game log looks the up and down in the last five is much more acceptable (23.4, 58.2, 13.2 ouch, 23.4, & 35.5). So the way I see it the 13.2 was verse the Hawks who defend the three considerably better and with Barnes still having a price of $5,600 he is a viable option in all formats.

Possible Value Plays

Otto Porter seems to be picking it up here and there and his price is dirt cheap at $4,500 on FanDuel. This first sentence was from yesterday’s position coach article. Otto tops my value tonight as well. Although we have some other good cheap plays tonight at SF Porter is the safest in my opinion. Granted as of last his game log has looked shaky but for a time awhile back we were paying over $6K for him. He is starting to look like that Porter again having scored 34.9, 26.7, and 29 fantasy points in his last three games. The Sixers are the Sixers who allow the 28^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and the 29^th most fantasy ppg overall to everyone. He is the third Wizard I am running tonight in my lineup and I am not afraid to say it. As a matter of fact, I will have a blue Otto Pop.

Doug McDermott. I mean really? The thought of writing a paragraph about this guy in the first place raises my blood pressure slightly. That whole team does. But the simple truth is he is the near minimum across the industry and has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in two straight. The Nets are terrible and as long as he secures some minutes (played over 30 in last two) he is a great value.

I am not going to go crazy here on Bojan Bogdanovic because I strongly believe he will be the most over owned let down of the night. The matchup is incredible with the Bulls allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards but on no planet do I see anything to suggest another 50 fantasy point night. He is a player who has scored over 20 fantasy ppg four times in his last 10 games. That is the guy he is. He may however throw up a 25 spot which is why he made the list. I say Brook Lopez trips him if he gets hot.

Power Forward

Strategy

The best value tonight here seems to fall around the $6K range for players. There is a few cheap guys and a few expensive guys but nothing that makes me want to go Danny Kay with an umbrella (look that one up youngsters). Crap, I sound like my dad.

Core Players

The player everyone is talking about is LaMarcus Aldridge. Did you say revenge game? The revenge game theory basically says that a player has a super ability because of his hatred for another team to play better in this game than all of his other games. What is Aldridge going to become a Sith? To the dark side has he gone? The other thing that the revenge game theory also implies by this notion is that the player is “dialing it in” in the other games. If he has this ability why not piss him off then before each game. Pee in his Cheerios or something and then send him on the court. The whole thing is total hogwash if you ask me. They are professionals. The real reason Aldridge is a good play tonight is because the Portland Trail Blazers struggle to defend the frontcourt and he has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three out of his last five games. His price is low at $7,900 on FanDuel tonight and for cash game purposes I am all in. There is rule of two you know with the Sith…just saying.

Luol Deng has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now in six straight with two of them going over the 40 mark versus the Sixers (40.8) and Bucks (40.2). The Hornets are allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to power forwards and for $6,400 on FanDuel tonight I really feel like I am getting a steal here. This game does have the third highest expected point total at 210 tonight and Miami is only 3.5-point favorites. It should stay close and I seriously smell an under owned play here tonight.

Paul Millsap has a price right now of $8,000 on FanDuel. I have to be honest with his up and down fantasy production and what I perceive as limited upside (hard to get 50 fantasy points out of) I find this price rather high. He is that guy who should be around $7K. In the last 10 games he has only hit that 50 fantasy point threshold once versus the Clippers on March 5 (52.1). He has a great matchup with the Nuggets allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards but I still would only use him in a GPP tonight at that price.

Possible Value Plays

OK, Carl Landry has the second highest usage rate on the slate among power forwards and continues to play 25 minutes or more per game. He has scored 26.1, 29.7, and 29.6 fantasy points in his last three. The matchup could be better with the Wizards allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards but with the Sixers frontcourt hurting big time he is locked in for them minute’s regardless opening the door for opportunity.

Jarrell Martin is the Memphis player yesterday I stated I liked less than Alex Stepheson. I then went on to say how because I said that it would flip-flop because I am the Adam Dunn of selecting Grizzlies. They just simply hate me for some reason. Anyhow, let’s try this again. Martin has scored over 25 fantasy ppg now in two straight while playing over 20 minutes. Now play Alex Stepheson.

Center

Strategy

As always center seems the easiest to me and I also for some reason focus right in on a certain two and attack.

Core Players

So I believe sometimes you go for the throat. I truly think that the best way to go is to get the guy who could get you the most fantasy points on the night and lock him in. That player for me tonight is Brook Lopez. The frontcourt is the offense for Brooklyn and Brook is an absolute monster. He is averaging over 36 fantasy ppg and put up 56.5 fantasy points versus the Raptors on March 8. He has a great matchup tonight facing a Bulls team allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to centers and is the safest bet to get to that 50 mark at center tonight.

Possible Value Plays

Bismack Biyombo, not Biz Markie should be starting tonight with Jonas Valanciunas going from out to doubtful in the last 10 minutes (2:54 pm). He has scored 25.2 and 33.1 fantasy points in the last two games while playing 25 minutes. The matchup is not great with the Pacers allowing the 12^th fewest fantasy ppg to centers but for his price the risk is worth it.

Good luck tonight.

GO DODGERS!

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73 or you can email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com.