NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: November 6, 2015

Here in the Northeast, Western Massachusetts to be specific, we are in the middle of a bit of an Indian summer. Last night it was about 65 degrees so it was nice to sleep with the windows open for what may be the last time. I let the pillows envelop my balding head and I drifted off into dream land. All was peaceful, then the tears started.

I live with five girls. Four little girls and of course the apple of my eye, my wife Jennifer. You think you have it rough? Try walking in my shoes. Anyhow, about 3 am Ares, who is six years old, wakes up crying from a nightmare. Of course being that I sleep like a rabbit waiting to be snatched out of his hole by a hawk as it is (like I have previously stated) I instantly was awakened. She tells me she had a bad dream so I tuck her back in, give her a kiss on the forehead, and tell her I know how she feels. I had a dream the Mets beat the Dodgers in the playoffs. At this point I was wide awake so I grabbed the laptop and headed to my kitchen table to start my research off with a nice cup of dark roast and a cat that will not leave me alone.

As some of you may be starting to notice the NBA can be a real pain in the rear when it comes to real life positions vs. where FanDuel and DraftKings have the players slotted. The most discrepancies appear to be falling between the SG and SF positions. It can be a bit confusing at times if you are playing on multiple sites like myself but it is like anything else, the more you do it, the easier it gets.  You just have to remember to adjust any research you do based on the position the player is really playing from and not the one the sites have them in. Let’s try to win a few bucks tonight.

Point Guard

Stephen Curry is hotter than a summer’s day in Nevada right now. In his last three games he has scored 53, 30, and 31 points consecutively. In his last game he went 7-for-11 shooting three’s with five rebounds and four assists. Tonight he faces the Denver Nuggets who are allowing the 26^th most points to the PG position. The Warriors currently have the highest projected team total of the night at 115 and he is getting it done on a nightly basis averaging over 50 fantasy points per game. Curry will be the building block in all my cash games tonight across the industry.

Atlanta tonight is three-point favorites facing the Pelicans in what is slated to be a high-scoring affair. Although I am usually cautious with selecting players from the Hawks I love Jeff Teague tonight. The Hawks are flying high at 5-1 and Teague has scored more than 15 points in every game except one and that one was 14. He faces the Pelicans tonight who are allowing the most points to the PG position for a fair price across the industry. He averages more than 30 fantasy ppg and I see no reason why that will not continue tonight. He makes a fine cash and GPP play.

Kyle Lowry has been a force to be reckoned with so far this season. He is putting up nearly 20 points with near double-digit assists on a nightly basis. Both the Raptors and the Magic play at a faster pace of game which means more shots taken. His price is a little high and that is the only reason Lowry is coming in at No. 3 and not No. 2 today.

One of the teams I am high on with a bunch of players from tonight is the Brooklyn Nets. They are projected to score over 104 points and are playing one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Los Angeles Lakers. Jarrett Jack is coming off a horrible performance putting up only six points vs. the Hawks on Wednesday. With the Lakers surrendering the 28^th-most points to the PG position thus far in this short season, it spells a bounce-back game for Jack tonight. I say he easily puts up over 25 fantasy points tonight for a decent price across the industry.

Value, value, value. A word you will read thousands of times if you become a regular follower of mine. I cannot preach the importance of it enough. This is the key to getting -all of those huge stars in your lineup that are essential to cash games. The difference between a great DFS player and a not-so-great DFS player is the ability to spot and take advantage of value at any position to give your lineup a boost in star upside.

Tonight Jerryd Bayless is facing the New York Knicks who – let’s face it, recent upgrades aside – are still the Knicks. For the minimum salary on FanDuel averaging over 17 fantasy ppg? I am all in on him tonight. This is the guy I am pairing tonight with Curry in my cash games but I like to take a little risk.

A few other guys who just fell short of article worthiness are Ty Lawson and Jordan Clarkson, who the sites have listed as a PG.

Shooting Guard

Klay Thompson has been struggling this season. As a result his price is low across the industry. His career average is almost 18 ppg but this season so far it’s down to a touch below 14. His three-point percentage is below .300. So with all this bad news you must be asking yourself why the hell would you be using him? Simple, reason dictates this will not continue. At some point he is going to go off and why not tonight facing the team who is allowing the most points in the NBA this season to the SG position…the Denver Nuggets. I am all in on Thompson in cash games tonight for the price just like Big Papi after a week of no home runs.

I am a Celtics fan, I will admit this. I was a Lakers fan but that changed. It’s a long story that spans 35 years. For another time. Which leads me into our next play in Bradley Beal. Washington tonight is a one-point favorite in a game with an expected point total of 209. The Celtics are allowing the 29^th-most points to the SG position on the young season. You add in the fact Beal is averaging more than 30 fantasy ppg and this is money. The $600 difference on FanDuel is all that separates Beal from Thompson.

Here is our first position snafu of the night. The "Greek God," as some friends of mine refer to him, Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing in the SF position in real life but is still listed as a SG on FanDuel. Tonight the Bucks are slight underdogs to the Knicks in what should be a close game. You add in the 21 points and nearly eight rebounds per game he is averaging this season and he becomes a fine play tonight. 

Marcus Thornton remains a fine value play averaging over 20 fantasy ppg right now. He is still way underpriced across the industry and tonight faces the Kings in what should be a high-scoring affair – most lines across the industry have an over/under of 214 or higher. This is the other value play I am using in cash games tonight along with Bayless on FanDuel.

I love Avery Bradley. He is one of the guys who won me over to the green side. He was the Darth Vader of basketball temptation. Yes, I was able to get a Star Wars reference into my article.

“Ummm, such a nerd I am."   *In my best Yoda voice*

Back to Bradley. With the Wizards surrendering the 29^th-most points to shooting guards on the season and Bradley averaging over 14 ppg and coming off a 21-point, five-rebound performance it makes him a fine play. The only reason I am not using him is every time I put a Celtic in my lineup they tank. Just ask me about Amir Johnson the other night. Just in case you play him, I will not.

If you still are on the ropes the next two guys who just fell short are Kent Bazemore and the struggling Kobe Bryant. Both are playing at the three but are listed as shooting guards.

Small Forward

This is one of those positions I am choosing to go cheap on today. I see no upside in spending up. My favorite play at the position for the price today is Otto Porter. The Celtics are allowing the 24^th-most points to the SF position thus far and I see no reason why that will change today. Porter in his last two games has put up 16 and 19 points consecutively and is averaging well over 20 fantasy ppg right now. I am all in on him in cash games tonight.

On the flipside of Porter is my other cash game play tonight in Jae Crowder. With such a close expected game and high-expected point total, this game has value across the board. Crowder has been impressive this season when you compare price to production. He is averaging over 20 fantasy ppg and has double-double potential tonight vs. a team that is allowing the second-most fantasy points to the SF position…the Wizards. Hopefully I do not kill his night.

If you insist on spending up tonight at the SF position the only guy worth considering would be LeBron James. I will long go on record that I am not a fan of anyone who takes photos of themselves wearing king crowns. I find it very pretentious and assuming. The fact remains Lebron is LeBron no matter who the opponent. He averages over 20 ppg with near double-digits in assists and rebounds. He may be expensive but this is the only SF on the day who has triple-double potential tonight. He makes a great GPP play.

*LeBron is listed as a SF even though his is playing at the two in real life.

Trevor Ariza is actually playing at the four but listed as a three across the industry. He is coming off a great Wednesday night performance vs. the Magic in which he put up 19 points and seven rebounds in 41 minutes and was 4-for-7 from the three point line. For the price he makes a fine play in both cash and GPP play tonight.

Last but not least is my boom or bust play. Luol Deng is facing the Indiana Pacers who are allowing their fair share of points to the SF position this season. Deng has underperformed in my opinion and has much more upside than he is showing. His career average is more than 15 ppg and I see no reason why he shouldn’t get there tonight.

Power Forward

The PF position tonight is where I find the best plays are. Kevin Love has been an absolute monster this season averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds this season. His price is still reasonable and he is facing the Sixers who allow the 26^th-most points to the PF position. You add in the over 30 fantasy ppg and I am all in on him in cash games tonight.

The other guy I am running with Love in my cash games is Draymond Green. The Nuggets are pathetic defensively and are allowing the 24^th-most points on the short season to the PF position. With Green averaging 12 points, seven rebounds, and five assists on the season he is hard to ignore in what should be a shootout. He has had three near misses so far in the double-double department and I believe that could change tonight.

Anthony Davis makes a fine play almost every day but has a tough matchup tonight. I am believer that a good player is a good player regardless of the defense and will find a way to get it done. I just feel that with Davis not achieving value most nights so far it would be foolish to spend up on him in cash games. He does, however, for this reason make a great GPP play.

Rudy Gay seems to make my list quite often. He is awesome. He is averaging 16 points and nearly seven rebounds on the season so far and tonight faces the Rockets who are allowing the 29^th-most points to the PF position this season. Gay is both a fine cash and GPP play tonight.

If you want to save money then take a look at Kristaps Porzingis tonight. He is averaging over 12 points and seven rebounds per game right now. Not bad for a rookie. Tonight facing a Bucks team that is allowing the 25^th-most points to the PF position only enhances the greatness of this value play.

Two other guys that did not make the cut but are noteworthy are Thaddeus Young and Ersan Ilyasova. They are both in great matchups but fell just short of the top five.

Center

Andre Drummond continues to be dominant in the NBA this season. He is averaging almost 50 fantasy ppg right now. Tonight he gets a less than favorable matchup with Phoenix allowing the third-fewest points to the center position but I could care less. I expect him to dominate again tonight and leave everyone who didn’t take him behind in this category. A must play in cash games.

If you do not like the matchup with Drummond and are looking for something more favorable my next favorite play is Brook Lopez. He is averaging 20 points and eight rebounds per night right now. Tonight he faces the Lakers who are allowing the 29^th-most points to centers this season. He makes a fine cash and GPP play.

Hassan Whiteside is facing the Pacers who are allowing the most points to centers on the season. You add in his 15 points and 10 rebounds per game he averages and you have a slot machine of fantasy points here. He also makes a great cash and GPP play.

If you want to go bargain basement tonight Roy Hibbert has been playing decently as of late despite two straight games where he failed to score 10 points. Tonight is supposed to be a close game with the Lakers playing slightly behind with a high expected point total of 206.5. This makes Hibbert a fine value play facing a Brooklyn defense in the bottom 10 vs. the center.

Well that concludes today’s article. I will be back after the weekend to continue to help you win some money. I hope. As always I will be on later to answer any questions and if you need answers over the weekend hit me up on Twitter @geraldcolvin73. Good luck.