Yesterday was a profitable day for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets despite only one successful bet. The plus odds same game parlay was a successful wager, and it carried this column past two tough bets. Tyrese Haliburton made the last field goal of overtime, and it allowed the Indiana Pacers’ total to be covered. 

Russell Westbrook was on the hook, but was ejected with over six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, ensuring the prop would not be covered. The Phoenix Suns could not cover the -1.5 spread of the first quarter, and would go on to lose the game. Both were close, and both were negative odds. The chalk bets fell short on a couple tough breaks. 

Haliburton’s field goal at the end of overtime gave yesterday a +0.60 profit, as opposed to a -3.00 loss. The last field goal of overtime…the margin of victory. Yet a win is a win, and we never apologize for winning.

*Editor’s Note: Get the most favorable NBA odds and lines exclusively on BettorEdge, the leading social sports betting platform! Available in 40+ states, just enter the code ALARM to instantly claim a $10 bonus when you sign up through us.

NBA Picks & Predictions: April 27

There are several tight lines today, and two games are in a pivotal game three. The New Orleans Pelicans and Miami Heat are both playing their first playoff home game of this season. One team is a perennial powerhouse coming fresh off of an upset, the other is enjoying their second playoff series in six years. Both teams have a player featured in a player prop, and they are both at positive odds. 

The Bet of the Night comes in the Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers match, as Fantasy Alarm seeks the third successful boosted same game parlay in as many days… and good things come in three. 

 

NBA BET OF THE NIGHT, 4/27

SAME GAME PARLAY: JAMAL MURRAY 20+ POINTS, AARON GORDON 7+ REBOUNDS, NIKOLA JOKIC 10+ ASSISTS (BOOSTED TO +450 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

‘If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ is some of the best advice I have ever received. It is also advice we will apply to the Bet of the Night. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Denver Nuggets today, and this series is all but over. After all the chalk bets lost yesterday, and the same game parlays have given us our best week in over a month, another boosted parlay is on deck. This same game parlay is a Denver Nuggets PRA (Points, Rebounds, Assists) special.

The crazy part about this bet is only one of these statistics, has failed to happen, and in only two of the three games. Jamal Murray has scored 20+ points in every game of this series. Aaron Gordon has seven or more rebounds in every game of this series, usually 10 or more. Nikola Jokic has only one game with 10+ assists, but he had nine in game three. He also had four near assists late in the fourth quarter, but all the field goal attempts came up unsuccessful. 

This game is projected to be close, with only a three-point spread in favor of the Nuggets. However, this same game parlay is not dependent on the outcome of the game, just three starters for the defending champions. Murray and Jokic have played 39+ minutes in all three games of this series. Aaron Gordon has only one game below 40 minutes in this series; the game he was slapped with two fouls in the first five minutes. The playing time will be there for these three future hall of fame members. 

As long as they are on the court logging their normal playoff minutes, there is a high percentage chance this same game parlay is successful. A full unit is recommended once again, if this boost is correct it will be 4.5 units gained, and a guaranteed profitable day. 

 

NBA PLAYER PROPS, 4/27

JONAS VALANCIUNAS OVER 11.5 REBOUNDS (+105 DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK)

We are not backing away from our guy, Jonas Valanciunas, just because of one blow out victory. If anything, he is now more rested. Game two was his lowest amount of minutes since the injury to teammate Zion Williamson. The New Orleans Pelicans host the Oklahoma City Thunder in what will be a loud and rowdy Smoothie King Center. If the Pelicans want to avoid losing their third straight game, they will need a big night from Valanciunas.

The Lithuanian big man has been playing better than average during this series, and when his teammates see him, he has been slamming high percentage field goals. It is his rebounding we are concerned with though. 

He only recorded seven rebounds in game two, but also only played 23 minutes. This has caused his rebounding line to shift to positive odds, as the sportsbooks are reluctant to drop it below 11.5. He should see more minutes tonight and the Pelicans should play a tougher game against the Thunder.

Valanciunas has been splitting time with Larry Nance Jr, but that is not a bad thing. Both have strengths and weaknesses in their game, and when Valanciunas is in, he is there to rebound everything. He is also working a pick and roll game, but he is a liability against Chet Holmgren’s deep threat ability. As long as this game is close going into the fourth quarter Valanciunas will have a great opportunity to earn at least a dozen rebounds.

Put a unit on a guy that has delivered the goods throughout the Play-In Tournament, and playoffs. The Pelicans are at home, Valanciunas is much stronger than any of the Thunder’s players, and New Orleans desperately needs a big game from their big man to stay alive.

NIKOLA JOVIC OVER 5.5 REBOUNDS (+105 BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

We have already mentioned Nikola Jokic in this article, but the Miami Heat have a young role player named Nikola Jovic. Jovic is a member of the Serbian National Basketball Team, and was drafted by the Heat in 2022. He has been playing valuable minutes against the Boston Celtics, and that should continue tonight. 

The Heat gave the Celtics a surprise blow, winning by 10 despite being 14-point underdogs. These two teams know each other well, and it is one of the best rivalries of this century. If the 2023-24 Heat did not have Boston’s attention prior to game two, they definitely have it in game three. They are walking into the rowdy Kaseya Center, and this should help Jovic and the Miami defense.

Jovic recorded six rebounds in game one, and nine in game two. Safely covering this line with about 25 minutes of court time in each game. The Celtics usually have several three-point attempts and even if they are successful on 50%, half of them are available to be grabbed. Jovic is 6’ 10”, and is one of the Heat’s tallest players. 

The fact that this bet is at positive odds is a bit puzzling. If he plays over 25 minutes this bet should be successful. He is arguably the fourth-best forward (a nice way of saying last) when on the court, but he has the size to be an efficient rebounder. Look for him to do just that and secure this plus odds prop.

*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise