Two out of three correctly last night, and once again Nikola Jokic did not play the fourth quarter, a brutal way to lose a bet. It was still a positive day yesterday, thanks to the double unit on Paul George who delivered against his former team. Today there are four games with a doubleheader on TNT. Ja Morant makes his return to the NBA as the Memphis Grizzlies play the New Orleans Pelicans with a 7:30 PM ET tip-off. There is a prop bet on Morant tonight against the Grizzlies Divisional opponent. 

The second game is the Boston Celtics at the Golden State Warriors with a 10:00 PM ET start time. The San Antonio Spurs play against the Milwaukee Bucks, and the Spurs will be without rookie sensation, Victor Wembanyama. The Phoenix Suns play against the struggling Portland Trail Blazers tonight with a 10:00 PM ET tip-off. There is a parlay in tonight’s action, in addition to the two player props, but one prop leads today's column with Fantasy Alarm’s NBA Bet of the Night.

 

NBA Bet of the Night

Brook Lopez UNDER 5.5 REBONDS (-115 at BetMGM)

Perhaps being spurned by last night has led to a focus on the under lines, and today’s best bet is a once-a-week favorite that has been profitable this year. Six rebounds for a center is very low, but Brook Lopez is a center only in designation and height. He plays more like a ‘Three and D’ wing than a true center. He is averaging 4.8 rebounds per game and has gone over 5.5 rebounds once in his last four games. 

The Spurs are not a great rebounding team and will be even less of a rebounding team without Victor Wembanyama. Yet the spread is set at an unreal line of 16.5 points. The fifteen-year veteran could see more rest, as he only played twenty-six minutes Saturday in the blowout win versus Detroit. He earned only one rebound that game and could have a similar line tonight. Even if he does play over thirty minutes this line is more than achievable as Lopez will not be asked to rebound, nor play aggressive defense near the rim. Trust the under on Lopez tonight.

NBA Prop Bet of the Night

Ja Morant UNDER 24.5 Points (at -120 BetMGM)

Ja Morant makes his return to the NBA after a long suspension. He appears to be rehabilitated and although he made bad decisions, Draymond Green has fully taken the ‘bad guy’ spotlight away from Ja Morant. Morant has never been in question while on the basketball floor. He has been the best player for the Memphis Grizzlies the past two years, and one of the most electrifying players in the NBA. He is capable of high points, and double-digit assists. 

The Memphis Grizzlies were ranked second in the Western Conference playoffs last year, largely due to Ja Morant’s excellent play. This will be his first game back, and although he is likely in great conditioning, he will not be in NBA mid-season shape because he has not played a game and his opponents have played several. In addition to that, Memphis is on back-to-back games, and playing against a Divisional rival in the New Orleans Pelicans who have played Ja Morant several times. 

Also, Ja Morant has not played with this team, there will be no Steven Adams (who he had an excellent rhythm with) nor Dillon Brooks in the backcourt. He could carry this team with several field goal attempts tonight, but 24.5 points in returning to the NBA versus a Divisional opponent seems unlikely. Place a unit on the under for Ja’s first game of the 2023-2024 season. 

NBA Parlay Bet

Boston Celtics & Phoenix Suns Money Line (-106 at DraftKings)

The two late-slated games are combined together for a near-even bet. The Phoenix Suns should breeze past the Portland Trail Blazers, even without Bradley Beal who will now be out at least two weeks with an ankle sprain. He has only played six games this season though, and the Suns are not reliant on him for the win. Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Jusuf Nurkic will be playing tonight and that should be enough to get past the six-win Portland Trail Blazers.

The Boston Celtics are 5.5-point favorites and could be without Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics are playing fantastic basketball right now, and have won five in a row. They are the best team in the Eastern Conference and are playing the struggling Golden State Warriors who are 12-14. Stephen Curry’s record for at least one three made in a game came to an end in their last game. 268 games with a three made, and that record began December 1st, 2018. It is almost symbolic of their dynasty, as pieces begin to fragment away and future Hall of Fame players begin to show signs of age. 

For the Boston Celtics though, Jayston Tatum and Jaylen Brown are entering the prime of their careers and are two of the best regular season players of this decade. The Warriors will be without Draymond Green, and Gary Payton II tonight and Chris Paul is questionable due to an illness. This is the more difficult of the two money lines to hit, but the Celtics starting five are better defenders and have just as good, if not better, scorers. A late-night parlay that could have some waking up to a larger bankroll… sort of like the tooth fairy, but for betting. 

Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your NBA fantasy needs. Basketball stats, rankings, DFS picks, tools to help your lineups, and the NBA DFS show with Jon and James.

 

Thank you for reading.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise