Looking to find the edge for your Monday slate? Our NBA Best Bets Today for March 16th break down the top picks, predictions, and player props to help you beat the books. With the 2025-2026 NBA regular season hitting the home stretch, rotation changes and injury reports are creating massive value in the prop market. Whether you are hunting for a dominant big man in Dallas or a strategic fade in Houston, our expert analysis identifies the softest lines on the board.

Beat the fast-paced basketball market using our Data Edge Picks and verified Expert Picks to navigate daily rotation changes. Find soft lines on player stats instantly with the Prop Finder and Odds Finder. Stay ahead of the book.

Here are the best bets and player props for today’s action.

 

P.J. Washington Over 6.5 Rebounds

We’re starting the night in Dallas, where the Mavericks are dealing with some frontcourt thinness. Daniel Gafford is currently doubtful, and we saw what that meant for P.J. Washington last game. He slid right into the starting center role and the results were absolute elite production on the glass.

PJ has cleared this mark with ease, recording double-digit rebounds in back-to-back games. When you look at the volume, it’s even more encouraging: he has had 34 rebound chances over his last two outings. Tonight, he faces a New Orleans Pelicans squad that has been leaning heavily into small-ball lineups with Zion Williamson at the five. That keeps PJ near the rim and away from the perimeter on defense. The opportunity and the matchup align perfectly here. Lock it in.

Tari Eason Under 10.5 Points

I’m heading to the Under market for Tari Eason tonight. While Eason is a high-energy player we usually love for fantasy, he is currently in the middle of a brutal shooting slump. Over his last 10 games, he’s shooting a dismal 36% from the field and a staggering 14.9% from three-point range.

Beyond the lack of efficiency, the usage just isn't there right now at 15.6% over the last 10. More importantly, his playing time is trending in the wrong direction. Eason has played 21 or fewer minutes in three of his last four games, losing rotation floor time to the likes of Reed Sheppard and Dorian Finney-Smith. If the minutes are capped and the shot isn't falling, getting to 11 points is a massive uphill battle.

 

De'Aaron Fox Over 6.5 Assists

Swipa has been turning into a major facilitator lately. While everyone knows Fox for his scoring, his playmaking has been the engine of the Kings' offense recently. He has cleared this 6.5-assist line in 5 of his last 7 games, and he’s not just squeaking by. He has recorded 9 or more assists in four of his last five.

The process stat I love here? Fox is averaging 14.3 potential assists over his last five games. That tells us the volume is consistent and his teammates are converting the looks he’s creating. In what should be a high-paced matchup tonight, I expect Fox to keep his teammates involved early and often.

Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 Rebounds

The Celtics are back in action, and Jayson Tatum looks like he’s fully ramped up. Since returning to the lineup, he’s gone over this 7.5 rebound mark in two of his four games, but those weren't just overs. He grabbed 12 and 14 boards in those contests.

Tatum played a season-high 32 minutes in his last outing against the Wizards, signaling that any minutes limit talk is out the window. If you look at the long-term trends, Tatum has averaged over 8.0 rebounds per game in each of the last four seasons, including a career-high 8.7 last year. He’s a double-double threat every time he steps on the floor, and 7.5 is simply too low for a player of his caliber playing full minutes.

 

Tristan da Silva Over 5.5 Rebounds

We’re going back to the Orlando Magic well tonight with Tristan da Silva. The Magic are still without Anthony Black and Franz Wagner, which opens up a massive vacuum of minutes and usage.

Da Silva has been a rebounding machine in this specific scenario. He has gone over 5.5 rebounds in 8 of his last 10 games without Anthony Black active. The volume is eye-popping: he’s averaged 11.8 rebound chances over that 10-game stretch, including a combined 29 rebound chances over his last two games alone! He’s locked into 30+ minutes of playing time, and with that kind of volume near the rim, 6 rebounds should be a walk in the park.

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