What an amazing day of basketball, and another bankroll building day for Fantasy Alarm. Despite the Milwaukee Bucks versus Indiana Pacers game going to overtime, Tyrese Haliburton did not earn over 10.5 assists. In fact his nine assists were the lowest of the series, instead he made the game winning field goal to advance the Pacers to the second round.

The data coming from the Betting Bungalow delivered a winning NBA best bet with the Detroit Pistons. We mentioned the possibility of them winning in yesterday’s article, but knew the spread was safe… and it was. The Pistons not only covered a +5.5 spread, they were victorious for the second game at Madison Square Garden in this series.

The Orlando Magic only scored 89 points in their game five loss to the Boston Celtics. Despite that Franz Wagner cleared his over 23.5 point proposition by scoring 25 points, one field goal over the line. The Celtics advanced to the next round, but Wagner had an excellent series.

Jamal Murray was everything we expected him to be, leading the Denver Nuggets to a game five victory with 43 points. That is the most playoff points scored by a Nugget at Ball Arena, and Denver’s first wire to wire playoff victory on their home court. The +264 same game parlay contributed to a +4.93 unit profit on a great day of betting.

 

 

NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/30

The NBA best bet today focuses on two games, with two wagers coming from the latter game. The first NBA best bet comes from the early game.

Warriors vs Rockets Prediction: Warriors Moneyline (+140 BOOSTED to +168 on BETMGM) *BET OF THE NIGHT

The Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors and are down 1 - 3 in the series. Luckily for them the game is back at the Toyota Center where their only win of the series has come from. They are currently -3.5 favorites in a match with a point total of 204.5. 

However the data compiled from the Betting Bungalow indicates the best bet is on the Golden State Warriors to finish the series tonight. The natural inclination is to believe a good defensive team will have the advantage at home, but the Rockets are mentally defeated. Their only All-Star, Alperen Sengun, stated ‘he’s young’ and he will ‘do better next time’, not referring to the next game, but the next time he’s in the playoffs.

Meanwhile the experienced and smart Warriors know what is at stake in this match. A win tonight and they are able to rest older legs, give proper attention to Jimmy Butler’s injury, and more time to develop offensive production. Should they win and the Lakers win, the Warriors would get even more time to recuperate. Ultimately they have a better roster, have much more offensive star power, and have better coaching to get a victory and advance to the conference semifinals.

Put a unit for the veterans of Golden State to do just that. The odds are at or near +140 on most sportsbooks, but BETMGM offers an odds boost that pushes the odds to +168, with a $20 max. Take the boost and if a full unit is wanted after, place the remaining amount at +140. For those new to BETMGM make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s offer for a $1,500 bonus bet.

 

 

Timberwolves vs Lakers Prediction: LAL 1st Quarter & Moneyline (-115 on Bet365)

The Los Angeles Lakers host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Crypto.com Arena and their back is against the wall. They can not slip up, nor lose as they are down 1 - 3 in this series. Although Minnesota has won in Los Angeles for game one, the expectation is for them to lose tonight.

Not only lose but also lose the first quarter. Los Angeles is a favorite to both win the match and the first quarter. They are at -190 on the first quarter moneyline and -240 on the game moneyline, but combined are at near even odds. There is too much at stake in this match for the Lakers and they have veteran players who have been in these situations, and are not rattled by the moment.

The Lakers are also 32 - 11 at home this season (including the playoffs). They are, and have been, a great home team for the past four decades. Some joke that the Lakers often get a friendly whistle at home, and there is some validity to that. For example Lebron James made just five field goals in game four, but ended with 27 points… and that was in Minneapolis. 

Look for Los Angeles to come out fast, with aggression, and get one game closer to advancing in this series. The spread is -5.5 and it should be covered, but Minnesota has proven time and time again they can come back in the playoffs. Put a unit on it at Bet365 and for those new make sure to check out the $150 bonus at the end of this article

 

 

Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/30

The last NBA best bet today comes from the Minnesota versus Los Angeles match with a focus on the best player of this century (for now).

Timberwolves vs Lakers Prediction: LeBron James Over 10.5 Rebounds  (+136 on FanDuel) 

Lebron James is defying father time, and shows no limitations of a 40 year old man. Although basketball is a young man’s game, Lebron has dominated at the highest level of basketball since 2003. Something that even his most staunch haters have to appreciate.

The decline of Dirk Nowitzki was evident and he was essentially a spot up scorer his last two seasons. The fall of Kobe Bryant’s athletic ability was painful to watch, and he didn’t possess the power he did in his youth. Tim Duncan faded away, and Shaquille O’Neal blew up like a hot air balloon as he was released from team to team. James is still doing everything, and doing it at a high level.

He has played 40 or more minutes in every match but game one’s blowout loss, and he still played 36 minutes in that match. He has scored 19 or more points in every match, with threes, mid range jumpers, and “move out of my way or suffer” jams. This series he has 22 assists, is averaging 2.0 steals per game, has nine blocks, and 10 or more rebounds in three consecutive games. There is not a let down or drop off in James performance, in fact he could be the best player of this series. 

The rebounds are the key and on several sportsbooks his rebounding line is set at 9.5 with heavy juice on the over. Instead of taking a juiced line, a teased rebounding line of over 10.5 rebounds on FanDuel is suggested. Usually rebounding would be the first thing to disappear from a player that has spent over 20 years in the Association, but not for James.

In an elimination game the expectation is for him to attack the rim every time the ball doesn't go through the cylinder. Luka Doncic controls the scoring and pace of the Lakers offense, so James is able to contribute by rebounding against a tall and tough Timberwolves lineup. Put a unit for James to cover the plus odd proposition, and for those new to FanDuel make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotion offer.

 

 

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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy