The NBA picks and player props for Friday, February 20th are here to help you crush the sportsbooks. Today’s slate is packed with value as the season pushes toward the home stretch, offering elite NBA best bets and high-upside opportunities driven by significant injury news and rotation shifts. Beat the fast-paced basketball market using our Data Edge Picks and verified Expert Picks to navigate daily rotation changes. Find soft lines on player stats instantly with the Prop Finder and Odds Finder. Stay ahead of the books by tracking situational spots and streaks with our comprehensive Betting Trends.

 

Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction: Brice Sensabaugh Over 21.5 Points

The Utah Jazz are dealing with a decimated roster tonight, and Brice Sensabaugh is positioned to be the primary beneficiary. With Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, GG Jackson, and Jusuf Nurkic all sidelined, the Jazz are missing the vast majority of their offensive production.

The volume metrics for Sensabaugh in this specific scenario are undeniable. When those four key players are off the floor, Sensabaugh’s usage rate skyrockets to near 30%. Projected to play upwards of 30 minutes, he will be the focal point of the Utah offense. Expect him to have the ultimate green light to hunt his shot and easily eclipse this 21.5-point threshold.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Prediction: Jeremiah Fears Over 14.5 Points

Jeremiah Fears enters tonight’s elite matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks in a prime position to produce. With Trey Murphy ruled out, the New Orleans rotation opens up significantly, and Fears is the player most likely to step into that scoring void.

Fears has been incredibly active lately, posting a 25% usage rate over his last 10 games. Against a Bucks team that has struggled at times to contain high-usage perimeter threats, Fears is slated for 30+ minutes of action. Given his recent involvement and the lack of wing depth tonight, 15 points is a very reachable target in what should be a high-possession game.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Charlotte Hornets Prediction: Jarrett Allen Over 9.5 Rebounds

Jarrett Allen is in a "smash spot" tonight as the Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Charlotte. The biggest factor here is the absence of Evan Mobley; without his frontcourt partner, Allen becomes the undisputed vacuum on the glass for Cleveland.

The data confirms this trend: Allen has cleared 9.5 rebounds in four of his last five games played without Mobley in the lineup. Furthermore, the Hornets are still without Moussa Diabate, their most effective rebounder. Allen should dominate the interior against a smaller, shorthanded Charlotte frontcourt and double-digit boards feel like a lock.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Prediction: Bam Adebayo Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made

Bam Adebayo’s evolution into a floor-spacer is one of the most profitable trends in the prop market right now. Adebayo has cleared this 1.5 line in 7 of his last 10 games, showing a newfound willingness to let it fly from deep.

The volume is the key: he is averaging a staggering 6.3 three-point attempts over his last 10 outings. With a massive 243.5 game total projected, this should be a fast-paced affair with plenty of possessions. The return of Tyler Herro also helps, as Herro’s gravity and playmaking often create wide-open "pick-and-pop" opportunities for Bam.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Prediction: Herbert Jones Over 2.5 Assists

While often cited for his defense, Herbert Jones is taking on a much larger playmaking role for the Pelicans with Trey Murphy out of the lineup. Over his last three games, Jones has recorded 7+ assist chances per contest, indicating that the ball is in his hands frequently as a secondary distributor.

Slated for 30+ minutes, Jones will have ample opportunity to find open teammates in a Pelicans offense that needs his IQ and passing tonight. At a line of just 2.5, the math heavily favors the Over based on his recent uptick in potential assists and the projected minutes floor.

 

NBA Picks Against the Spread

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