The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers were unable to pull off the homecourt upsets last night. The Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves arguably played their best games of the season last night. Thus the moneyline wagers on Miami and the Clippers were unsuccessful. However yesterday’s column predicted something even more rare than winning a bet. Winning a bet due to a double technical. Draymond Green’s under 6.5 rebounds was a success due to the ejection.

Beat the fast-paced basketball market using our Data Edge Picks and verified Expert Picks to navigate daily rotation changes. Find soft lines on player stats instantly with the Prop Finder and Odds Finder. Stay ahead of the books by tracking situational spots and streaks with our comprehensive Betting Trends.

 

 

 

NBA Best Bets Today, 1/4: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Sunday

The NBA has eight games today, and they begin at 2:00 PM ET. There are not any nationally televised matches today, but there are still great lineups. Also League Pass is a great place to watch games, particularly with moneyline wagers. Today’s first best bet looks at a player who is in a special matchup. A player that wouldn’t miss this game even if he was sick.
 

 

 

Denver Nuggets vs Brooklyn Nets: Sunday 1/4

Game Time: 3:30 PM ET | TV: NBA League Pass | Location: Barclays Center | Odds: DEN -2.5 | O/U 224.5

Prediction: Michael Porter Over 26.5 Points (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) 

Michael Porter has missed the Brooklyn Nets’ last two games with an illness. But he is probable to play against his former team today. Porter Jr. gets to play the team that drafted him, and he is coming off of an extended break. Perhaps that is why every sportsbook has jacked up his point total. Never let anyone tell you that sportsbooks, and their simulators, do not take into account narratives.

Porter Jr. is the Nets best scorer, and his point line is set at 26.5 on BETMGM. Other sportsbooks have his line set at 27.5 and still negative on the over. The 26.5 point line on MGM is set at almost even odds too, which is the wise choice. The Nuggets could get Aaron Gordon back tonight as he is listed as questionable for the first time in over a month, but it won’t be enough to stop Porter Jr.

He is the best player on Brooklyn’s roster, particularly when veteran Cam Thomas is put on the bench for a rookie. Porter Jr. is averaging 25.8 points per game. He knows his former teammates' tendencies, he knows his current teammates will be looking for him, and he knows this is more than just a routine game. Revenge games produce great performances. The sportsbooks are aware of it, and so are we. Put a unit on the best bet of over 26.5 points for MPJ.
 

 

 

Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Sunday 1/4

Game Time: 2:00 PM ET | TV: NBA League Pass | Location: Rocket Arena | Odds: CLE -4.5 | O/U 237.5

Prediction: Total Under 237.5 (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) - 2.0 Units

The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Detroit Pistons in a Central division rivalry. Rocket Arena will be rocking this afternoon with the first NBA game today. The Browns are playing on the opposite corner of the state, and the Cavaliers are surging. The expectation is for a rowdy crowd in what will be a rowdy game between rivals. 

Jalen Duren is out for Detroit, and Isaiah Stewart is starting at center in his place. Stewart is what some might call a “no-nonsense” kind of guy. He was awarded the NBA December Defensive Player of the Month by leading the Pistons great defense. Stewart is the first Pistons player to receive the honor, and he takes pride in playing tough defense. He logged 28 blocks last month, and should play great defense against the Cavaliers two towers in the front court.

Evan Mobley of the Cavaliers  is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and he was injured last month. He’s healthy this month, and it’s no surprise that Cleveland’s three-game win streak coincides with Mobley’s return to playing 29+ minutes. He has played just five games since returning from injury, but he is back to being a defensive force. He’s logged 11 blocks and 28 rebounds during their three-game win streak.

Nine of the Pistons last ten game totals have been under 232 points. The fact that this total is so high with two great defensive front courts is asinine. Put two units on under 237.5 points in an early afternoon game.
 

 

 

NBA Prop Bet Today, 1/4

Mike Williams Under 8.5 Rebounds (-104 on DraftKings Sportsbook) 

Mike Williams and the Phoenix Suns host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a Western Conference scrap. Both of these teams have great defensive players, both have won six of their last ten games too. The difference is the Thunder have a +15.3 point differential and Phoenix has +2.1. Regardless, Mike Williams is expected to earn less than 8.5 rebounds today.

The Thunder will be on their third string center, Brendon Carlson, as Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams are out. However Carlson is seven-foot tall, and will be paired with seven-foot one-inch Chet Holmgren. The Suns do not have the height to box out both of Oklahoma City’s big men. One of them will be at the rim at all times defensively, and Holmgren attacks the glass offensively.

Williams is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game, and earned just 5 rebounds in the Suns most recent match against the Thunder. With two opposing 7’ players in the front court, rebounds will be difficult to come by. Put a unit on Williams to record less than 8.5 rebounds against the red hot Thunder.
 

 

 

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