Not a great day yesterday admittedly, but we look to bounce back strong today, and end the week on a high note with some winning MLB bets! My best bets of the day on Underdog Fantasy feature Cristian Javier against the New York Yankees, Freddie Freeman taking on the Atlanta Braves, and J.P. Crawford facing the New York Mets. As always, don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks. Furthermore, our MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help uncover the best matchups for MLB player props and your MLB DFS lineups this evening. Without further ado, let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Sunday, September 3rd.
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros - LOWER than 6 Strikeouts
Six strikeouts? For Javier? In this economy? No thank you! Let’s go lower. He has surpassed this line in just one of his last six starts, and he has six or more strikeouts in just seven of 25 starts this season! He’s not getting a ton of swings out of the zone, hasn’t been great at getting ahead of batters, and while his swinging strike rate is still respectable at 11.1 percent, it’s a far cry from the 13+ percent mark he posted each of the prior two seasons. He’s not striking out left-handed batters, which has hurt him, and while the Yankees are a right-handed dominant lineup, I don’t envision Javier putting forth a big-time strikeout game, even with some of New York’s offensive woes of late. In the beginning of August, Javier struck out four Yankees across 4.2 innings of work, and his struggles of late have prevented him from working deeper into games. The last time he recorded an out beyond five innings of work was on July 28th against the Tampa Bay Rays, and he’s recorded more than 15 outs just twice over his last 111 starts, posting a 7.46 ERA and 2.13 HR/9 during that stretch. This line seems to be overvaluing the recent struggles by the Yankees, rather than taking into account equally Javier’s dearth of strikeouts and other woes in 2023.
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers - HIGHER than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Before I talk about Freeman’s dominance of Morton and his numbers overall of late, I’ll give Morton some credit here. He has been solid on the road this year, and away from his home park, home runs haven’t really been an issue for the veteran right-hander. However, the strikeout numbers are less impressive on the road, and throughout his career, this particular left-hander has given him some fits. For Freeman’s career, he’s 10-for-18 with three doubles, three home runs, and seven RBI against Morton, good for a .556/.556/1.222 slash line and 1.778 OPS. This year, he’s 2-for-3 with a double and a home run against Morton, and dating back to 2020, he’s 7-for-9 with three home runs and two doubles. Over his last 14 games, Freeman is hitting .368 with seven doubles, two home runs, nine runs scored, and six RBI. He’s very familiar with what Morton has to offer, and while Morton has been very good of late, he didn’t fare too well against the Dodgers earlier this season, and he doesn’t have a great track record against the Los Angeles Dodgers star first baseman.
J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners - HIGHER than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Over his last eight games, Crawford is hitting .448 with a .599 wOBA, four home runs, two doubles, 13 runs scored, and seven RBI. Also, during this eight-game run, he’s surpassed today’s line of 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in six of those eight games! He’s atop the Seattle order, and as a left-handed bat, we have to love his outlook against New York Mets right-hander Tylor Megill. In five starts in the month of August, left-handed hitters posted a .356/.377/.610 slash line against him, and for the entire 2023 season, those numbers sit at .302/.375/.464. Megill posted a 5.61 ERA and 1.75 HR/9 in the month of August, and while he typically fares better at home than on the road, his struggles with left-handed hitters follows him everywhere. Crawford has been an on-base machine of late, and so long as that trend continues, he should find himself in advantageous spots to surpass this line.
MLB Best Bets
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