Although we have a small slate of Major League Baseball games tonight, there are still plenty of MLB Underdog Fantasy picks and plays to target for Thursday evening. Our top MLB picks feature New York Yankees outfielder Harrison Bader as he stays hot in place of the injured Giancarlo Stanton. Plus, we're fading Arizona Diamondbacks starter Tommy Henry against the San Francisco Giants. Check out these free MLB player props and MLB daily picks on Underdog Fantasy for “Pick'Em” contests tonight. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props and MLB DFS lineups. Now, let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Thursday, May 11th.


MLB Underdog Fantasy Top Picks May 11

Harrison Bader, New York Yankees – OVER 7.5 Fantasy Points

In case you haven’t noticed, Harrison Bader has been on fire since returning from the Injured List at the start of May. The New York Yankees outfielder is batting .429 (12-for-28) with a 1.341 OPS, three home runs, 11 RBI, and seven runs scored over his first eight games. Yes, it’s a small sample size and Bader will eventually cool off as he’s only a career .248 hitter. Still, we have to ride the hot hand as long as Bader is filling in for the injured Giancarlo Stanton. He’s been over 7.5 fantasy points in six straight games coming into tonight. The Yankees will face Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen, who’s been good again this season with a 3.11 ERA. It’s a tough matchup, but Bader has a couple of other factors in his favor here. For one, he gets to play at home in Yankee Stadium, where he’s hitting .311 with 11 homers over 14 games in his career. Bader hit .286 in the ballpark last year after the mid-season trade. Plus, there is good hitting weather in New York today with hot temperatures and the wind blowing out. 

Tommy Henry, Arizona Diamondbacks – UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts

Taking the under for pitcher strikeout props against the San Francisco Giants is definitely risky. To play devil’s advocate, here are some numbers that support the over. The Giants’ 26.1% strikeout rate is the second-highest in the MLB and it’s even worse against left-handed pitching at 28.5%. We’ve been targeting this matchup for K props all season, but we’re looking in the other direction tonight. Why? Well, Tommy Henry isn’t exactly a strikeout pitcher. The Arizona Diamondbacks lefty has been under 4.5 strikeouts in all three starts this season while maxing out at three Ks. He also went under this line in six of nine big-league starts last year. Henry has a low 10.4% K rate this season and was at 17.6% in 2022. Plus, he may run into some trouble against a Giants offense that’s having much more success against left-handers lately. Since the start of May, the San Fran lineup boasts a .346 wOBA and lower 22.2% K rate against southpaws. Having Mitch Haniger and Austin Slater back healthy helps, and rookie Casey Schmitt has also boosted this offense against lefties. The Giants are also a tougher matchup on the road than at home, not to mention Henry’s 5.17 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this year.


MLB Best Bets

If you are looking for some MLB Best Bets today, make sure you check out our MLB betting picks for today's slate of games.

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