First and foremost, thoughts and prayers to those that have been or could potentially be affected by the devastating impacts of Hurricane Ian. While this catastrophic storm may have some impacts on some Major League Baseball games today, let us not lose sight of the bigger picture, and keep those affected in our thoughts. One of those games that could be impacted by Hurricane Ian is the twinbill in Washington, although it seems as if the first game has a good chance to be played, but the second game could be in danger. However, in the first game, Bryce Harper is going to be our BvP hero today, so his pick'em is incredibly advantageous for us. Then, we look to the bump with Minnesota’s Joe Ryan and Arizona’s Merrill Kelly, in matchups that may surprise you, for better or for worse. Check out our weather center prior to locking in any MLB player pick'ems or daily fantasy baseball lineups today. Here are my favorite MLB pick'em and plays of the day over on Underdog Fantasy for Friday, September 30.

 

 


Underdog Fantasy MLB Player Pick'Ems September 30

Bryce Harper OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Weather is a concern for this game, but given that the team is slated for a doubleheader today, and there’s virtually no chance the evening game is played, I think they push the boundaries with the first of the twinbill to get one game in. Erick Fedde is slated to start for Washington, and he is 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 HR/9 over his last starts. Furthermore, at home this year, he has a 5.37 ERA and 1.58 HR/9. Now, in struts Harper, who is 10-for-19 with six home runs against Fedde in his career, and the veteran slugger has a .316 average and .973 OPS versus righties this season. Lastly, he has a .984 OPS on the road. Trust the BvP numbers and take the over with Harper.

 

Joe Ryan UNDER 6 Strikeouts

Over the last two weeks, the Detroit Tigers have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and they have an average 98 wRC+ against righties during that stretch. Ryan has a 4.66 ERA on the road this year, and his strikeout rate is nearly 12 percentage points lower on the road than at home! He’s been under this mark in three of his last four starts, and if you look just at his road starts this year, he’s surpassed this mark just once in his last four starts, with that time coming all the way back on July 29th against San Diego. He does have at least seven strikeouts in all three starts against Detroit this year, but the Tigers have been better heading into this matchup compared to those times. I’m taking the under here and buying into Detroit’s ability to limit strikeouts of late.

 

Merrill Kelly OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

Over the course of the 2022 season, you may look at Kelly’s 6.96 K/9 on the road this year and wonder why I’m taking the over this evening. Since July, he has a 7.6 K/9 on the road. Since the start of August, he has an 8.6 K/9 on the road. Over his last nine starts, he has six or more strikeouts in eight of them, and he gets to face a San Francisco team that has the eighth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Kelly is no stranger to this San Francisco squad, and here are his strikeout totals in each matchup against the Giants in 2022: 6, 7, 6, 7, and 4.

 

 


 

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