Time to start off the new week of Major League Baseball action with some winning picks over on Underdog Fantasy, so without further ado, it’s time to analyze the board of MLB player props and sift through the data to find those winning picks! My best bets of the day on Underdog Fantasy feature Aaron Nola taking the mound against the San Francisco Giants, Paul Goldschmidt taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the red-hot Rafael Devers facing off against the Houston Astros. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report, as there is a lot of weather on the radar tonight, and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks, and our MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help uncover the best matchups for MLB player props and your MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Monday, August 21st.


Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies - HIGHER than 6.5 Strikeouts

Nola has at least six strikeouts in eight straight starts, and has at least seven in half of them. While four of his last eight may not seem like a good trend to attack, his floor over the last two months sits right at this line, and he’s on the best side of his splits, as he has a 27.9 K% and 3.59 ERA at home this season. Over his last eight starts, he’s posted a 42.7 percent O-Swing% and 12.4% SwStr, which is very reliable for strikeout production, and likely a big reason for his higher strikeout floor of late. Since July 1, the Giants have the seventh-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, along with the league’s worst batting average (.206) and wRC+ (70). 

Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals - HIGHER than 8 Fantasy Points

Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter has been better than his 0-7 record suggests, but I expect Paul Goldschmidt to get the best of him this evening. Right-handed hitters have a .286/.324/.446 slash line against him, and Goldy has a .292 average and .337 wOBA against southpaws in 2023. Since July 1, he’s hit lefties at a .311 clip with an .863 OPS, and if we only look in the month of August (23 PA), he’s hitting .400 with a 1.078 OPS against lefties. An extra base hit or two with an RBI and we are cruising to another double-digit fantasy point day for the veteran slugger.

Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox - HIGHER than 1.5 Total Bases

Not only has Devers surpassed this line in four straight games, but he has three straight contests with three hits! He feasted on New York pitching in the team’s most recent series, and he now gets to kick off the new series against Houston Astros right-hander Cristian Javier, whose struggles against left-handed hitters are well-documented. He cannot get lefties to swing and miss much, and left-handed hitters have a .275/.343/.486 line against him this season. Devers has hit righties at a .417 clip in August with seven extra-base hits, and if we date back to July 1, he has a .667 SLG, 1.120 OPS, and .322 ISO against righties. Simply put, we have a left-handed hitter who is crushing right-handed pitching of late, going up against a right-hander who has notable struggles this year against left-handed hitters.


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