After going 2-1 with yesterday's MLB Underdog Fantasy picks, let's find some more winners for Tuesday's daily fantasy baseball slate of games. One of our top MLB picks today focuses on Baltimore Orioles rookie Grayson Rodriguez making his home debut. We'll also target MLB player props for Gerrit Cole and Matt Chapman. Let's now dive into free MLB Underdog picks for “Pick'Em” contests tonight. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props and MLB DFS lineups. Now, let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Tuesday, April 11th.

 

MLB Underdog Fantasy Top Picks April 11

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees – UNDER 7.0 Strikeouts

Betting against a pitcher of Cole’s pedigree is always risky, but the numbers point to a lower strikeout total for the NYY starter tonight. Yes, Cole has started this season strong with eight and 11 strikeouts in his first two starts. However, those outings came against the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants – two of the top five most strikeout-prone teams in baseball so far. Plus, he benefited from pitching at home for both starts. Some negative regression is likely coming. Cole now has to go on the road and face a feisty Cleveland Guardians lineup. The Guardians strike out just 19.8% of the time (7th-best in MLB) with a 12.3% walk rate (2nd). Only one opposing starting pitcher has eclipsed six strikeouts against Cleveland this season (Logan Gilbert with seven over a week ago). The Guardians should give Cole some tougher at-bats than both the Giants and Phillies did – limiting his Ks below this prop.

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles – OVER 5.0 Strikeouts

If you’re an Orioles fan, you’re probably pretty excited about tonight’s game for one main reason: Grayson Rodriguez. The 23-year-old rookie is making his home debut in Baltimore on Tuesday night and Camden Yards should be rocking. Rodriguez was solid in his first 2023 outing with five strikeouts and two earned runs allowed over five innings on the road against the Texas Rangers. He’ll face a much easier lineup tonight in the Oakland Athletics. Against right-handed pitching this season, the A’s have a 27.1% strikeout rate (2nd-highest in MLB) and a .263 wOBA (3rd-lowest). Rodriguez should best his five-strikeout performance from last week. The righty has legit swing-and-miss stuff with a high-90s fastball, a biting slider, and a good changeup. He had a 35.8% K rate in Triple-A last season and a 39% K rate at Double-A two years ago. Oakland’s subpar lineup should run into trouble tonight with Rodriguez going over his strikeout prop. 

Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays – OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI

Chapman continues to swing a scorching hot bat for Toronto. The third baseman is hitting .475 this season (19-for-40) with homers in back-to-back games coming into tonight. Chapman has over 1.5 combined hits/runs/RBI in eight of 10 games so far and multiple hits in six of those. When you have a hitter as hot as Chapman right now, it’s a good bet to simply continue riding him until there’s a clear cooldown. He can go over this prop on his own with a couple of hits, but the opportunities for runs and RBI are much more prevalent with Chapman batting cleanup in the Toronto lineup. He’s hitting behind George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and has Daulton Varsho, Whit Merrifield, and others following him up. Tonight, the Blue Jays face Detroit Tigers starter Matt Manning, who gave up six hits and two runs to Houston in his first 2023 outing. Manning could run into trouble on the road here in Toronto. He has a career 5.73 road ERA and struggled to a 4.94 ERA on the road last season. 

 

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