Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Our Underdog MLB Pick'em predictions for Wednesday, September 23, spotlight two MLB player props worth targeting on today’s action-packed MLB slate. The lines for Aaron Nola’s walks allowed and Yordan Alvarez hits + runs + RBI both come with clear situational edges backed by current form, matchup data, and recent trends. If you are building your Underdog Pick'em entry for today’s MLB slate, here is the full case for where we land on both and why the MLB DFS projections are set up the way they do.

What are the Best Underdog MLB Pick'em Picks Today?

Today’s two best Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick'em plays are Aaron Nola over 1.5 walks allowed and Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI. Both props are supported by matchup data, current streaks, and favorable line construction heading into an action-packed day of baseball. Read below for the complete analysis on each.

 

 

 

Aaron Nola OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed

Nola has walked multiple batters in four of his last five starts, and since the calendar flipped to August, he’s walked multiple batters in seven of nine starts! Despite his ERA being far better in the second half, his walk rate is up two percentage points, and his Zone% and first-pitch strike rate are both down two percentage points. 

Nola draws a tough matchup against a Milwaukee offense that has the second-highest walk rate in Major League Baseball this month, coming in at 11.9%. Furthermore, since August 1, Nola has an 11.1% walk rate against left-handed hitters, and I’d expect the Brewers to field at least five lefties in their lineup.

Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

Alvarez is on another heater, posting an .875 SLG over his last seven games, not to mention swatting three home runs. Whenever Alvarez is taking on a RHP, he’s in consideration for any play on the day, given that he has a 1.113 OPS and .311 ISO against RHP in 2026. Alvarez and the Astros will take on George Kirby, who has struggled in the second half (5.13 ERA). Lefties have been Kirby’s kryptonite this season, and despite Kirby toeing the rubber in the pitcher-friendly confines of his home park, I don’t think that’ll be enough to overcome this matchup.

 

 

 

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If you have not yet signed up for Underdog Fantasy, there is no better time than tonight. New users who register using promo code ALARM will receive a free pick plus $50 instantly, giving you real money to work with on this slate and every MLB game going forward. Visit fantasyalarm.com/offers to lock in your bonus before the evening games get underway.