From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Bryce Miller’s hot start, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Jr.’s recent success. On the other hand, Johan Ovideo’s recent struggles have tanked his fantasy baseball value, while Cleveland’s Andres Gimenez is shaping up to be a fantasy baseball bust. Injuries to Drew Rasmussen, Luis Garcia, Jose Alvarado, and Tyler Mahle have rocked the pitching landscape a bit. A pair of Texas Rangers are tied with Trea Turner for the longest active hit streak in the majors at this juncture. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

 
AVGOBPSLG
1Luis Arraez.3861Luis Arraez.4441Brent Rooker.673
2Ronald Acuna Jr..3452LaMonte Wade Jr..4372Patrick Wisdom.607
3Elias Diaz.3303Ronald Acuna Jr..4343Sean Murphy.591
4Matt Chapman.3294Ian Happ.4304Randy Arozarena.577
5Bo Bichette.3215Brent Rooker.4285James Outman.574
xBAxwOBAHard Hit%
1Ronald Acuna Jr..3441Sean Murphy.4681Matt Chapman66.7%
2Bo Bichette.3412Ronald Acuna Jr..4562Aaron Judge60.9%
3Luis Arraez.3323Matt Chapman.4473Joey Gallo60.4%
4Freddie Freeman.3264Brent Rooker.4404Juan Soto59.0%
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Jr..3165LaMonte Wade Jr. Jr..4305Patrick Wisdom58.3%
Hit Streaks
StreakPlayerABRHitsHRRBIBBKAVG/OBP/SLG
11Jonah Heim471018210112.383/.396/.596
11Nathaniel Lowe44101217710.273/.373/.432
11Trea Turner4761223317.255/.300/.468
10Randal Grichuk4081413410.350/.409/.500
10Yandy Diaz407122458.300/.391/.525
9Ty France365141425.389/.450/.500
9Eddie Rosario351120619.343/.361/.457
9Yordan Alvarez345113835.324/.378/.676
8Eloy Jimenez336142835.424/.472/.636

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Miller has been excellent at the big-league level thus far, posting a 0.75 ERA and 15:1 K/BB ratio. He’s posted quality starts in both of his outings, which have come against Oakland and Houston, and all but two of his strikeouts have come via his fastball. Ideally, you would like to see his secondary offerings generate more whiffs, and be more effective overall, because as the book gets out on him, it’s hard to imagine that his four-seamer remains this effective. Seattle needs him in the rotation, and after throwing 130+ innings last year between the minor league ranks, he should be able to handle 140-160 innings of work this year.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks

Gurriel has hit safely in each of his last seven starts, and for the month of May, he’s slashing .433/541/.933 with four home runs, three doubles, 11 runs scored, and seven RBI! He’s easily on pace for his best season, and his 2023 campaign is shaping up to be quite the bounce back from a quiet 2022 season. The surface-level metrics are nice, but his strikeouts are down, barrel rate is back up, and both his quality and quantity of contact are up! Gurriel remains available in 31.2 percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues, so go scoop him up!

Honorable Mention: Harrison Bader, Yennier Cano, Alex Lange, Jason Adam, Eury Perez, Casey Schmitt

 

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

It was only a matter of time, and I say this as a Pirates fan. From 2020-2022, Oviedo had a 4.34 ERA (4.68 FIP, 4.90 xFIP), and he came out of the gate in 2023 posting a 3.03 ERA and 8.8 K/9. Well, that came to a crashing halt, as he has now posted a 10.22 ERA over his last three starts, and the walk rate is becoming insurmountable. He has 20 walks in just 42 innings this year, including multiple walks in not one, not two, not three, not four, but five straight outings! He has more, or just as many walks as strikeouts in each of his last three outings. Left-handed hitters have given him fits, and that will only continue. I hope you were able to sell high on Oviedo while that window was open.

Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Guardians

This fantasy baseball faller, like the one above, pains me. I loved Gimenez coming into the year and was expecting him to build upon last year’s excellent season. I knew there was some concern about his power overall for this season, but what he’s done this year is even worse than my worst-case scenario outcome for the season. His barrel rate is nearly extinct, his hard-hit rate has absolutely cratered, and his ground ball rate is up to 50 percent! On top of that, he ranks in the seventh percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel rate, chase rate, xSLG, and xwOBA. I don’t want to drop him, as he does still have six stolen bases and he could bounce back, but it’s getting tougher and tougher to be in that boat.

Honorable Mention: Jack Suwinski, Luis Garcia (IL), Drew Rasmussen (IL), Jack Flaherty, Graham Ashcraft, Vaughn Grissom, Jose Miranda, Tyler Mahle (IL)

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com

 

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