Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch: Risers & Fallers For This Week July 31st, 2026

As we close out July and steamroll toward the trade deadline, the fantasy baseball landscape is shifting faster than ever. The second-half sample size is growing by the day, and the more data, the better. Whether you are riding sudden power surges from surprising everyday bats, watching hyped starting pitchers find their elite gear, or navigating the terrifying collapse of dependable arms and bats, holding on to early-season priors will cost you a playoff spot. From breakout surges in Seattle and Toronto to alarming arm concerns and bullpen demotions in Minnesota and Arizona, let’s break down this week’s top fantasy baseball stock watch risers and fallers. 

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Risers This Week

Dominic Canzone, OF Seattle Mariners

Dominic Canzone has transformed from a fringe roster option into an absolute run-producing force for the Seattle Mariners. Over his past week of play, the outfielder has been scorching hot at the plate, belting three home runs while driving in nine runs, which is tied for the major league lead. For managers searching for immediate mid-summer power, Canzone’s recent outburst has made him one of the hottest waiver wire additions in the format.

Historically viewed as a strong-side platoon player, Canzone’s rising stock is anchored by a massive development: his performance against southpaws. Rather than being benched against left-handed pitching, Canzone has forced his way into a full-time role by crushing lefties when given the opportunity. While the sample size against left-handed pitching remains relatively small, a .270 AVG (higher than it is versus righties) and a 1.059 OPS are very notable numbers for someone who started the year in a platoon.

George Springer, OF Toronto Blue Jays

After an uninspiring first half, George Springer has burst out of the All-Star break looking like the elite top-of-the-order force that fantasy managers originally drafted. Over his 12 second-half contests, the veteran outfielder has completely flipped his narrative as he slashed .326/.392/.565 with a .412 wOBA. The hot stretch isn't just empty batting average padding, either. Springer is driving the ball with authority and serving as a run-producing machine, racking up three home runs, six runs scored, and 12 RBIs in those 12 games.

The most encouraging element of Springer’s mid-summer surge is what he’s doing within the strike zone. Rather than selling out for pull-side power or over-expanding during deep counts, his approach has been pristine. A 1:1 K:BB ratio over a multi-week span indicates a hitter who is seeing the ball cleanly and punishing mistakes. Let’s not overlook the fact that George Springer could be dealt at the deadline and inserted into a much better lineup.

Jared Jones, SP Pittsburgh Pirates

Dare I say, Jared Jones is ALL the way back. Well, maybe not all the way back because he still hasn’t thrown more than 83 pitches in a game. But despite that fact, Jones has fired off two straight quality starts and has three in his last four outings. Jones hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any start since June 15th (seven starts).

In July, Jones has a 2.00 ERA and has held his opponents to a .120 BAA, .188 wOBA, while posting a robust 33.7% K and 6.1% BB rates. Jones’ stock is at an all-time high right now, and the 13.3% SwStr suggests the strikeouts are going to continue to stick around, and the pitch count is only going to build up from here.

Roki Sasaki, SP Los Angeles Dodgers

After early-season volatility left fantasy managers hesitant, Roki Sasaki has rapidly shifted from a high-variance project into an absolute fantasy asset. The right-hander’s recent outings showcase a pitcher locking into precise location and deep-game efficiency. Sasaki has allowed 3 ER or fewer in four straight starts, tightening that down to 2 ER or fewer in his last three outings.

Sasaki has now piled up 16 strikeouts over his last two starts alone while posting five-plus strikeouts in four consecutive starts. The driver behind this July surge is top-tier whiff generation. Sasaki is getting hitters to chase and miss at rates that rival the most elite arms in baseball:

When a pitcher maintains a SwStr% consistently north of 14% to 17%, high-K totals aren't a fluke, and that is the number one indicator for strikeouts to come in bunches. Sasaki’s splitter and high-velocity fastball are missing barrels completely, rendering opposing lineups helpless late in counts.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Fallers This Week

Brandon Marsh, OF Philadelphia Phillies

After a sensational first half that saw him outplay virtually all expectations, Brandon Marsh’s bat has hit an icy-cold wall. Over his last seven days, Marsh has managed just two hits in 22 at-bats. The second half as a whole has been a painful ride for managers relying on his everyday production:

• Post-All-Star Break Slash Line: .116/.174/.186
• Strikeout Rate: 30.4%

When a hitter pairs a sub-.200 slugging percentage with a strikeout rate above 30%, fantasy managers start sweating and with good reason.

The underlying metrics always harbored red flags, but the luck factor was covering them up. Marsh spent the first half living on an unsustainable .377 BABIP. While Marsh historically runs higher-than-average BABIP, nearly .380 is a high-wire act that rarely ends without a fall. A .143 BABIP is an extreme regression in the opposite direction, but it highlights just how fragile his overall baseline is when balls in play aren't finding grass. With his strikeout rate creeping back over 30%, he isn't putting enough balls in play to offset the regression. Jump ship while you can.

Trent Grisham, OF New York Yankees

Trent Grisham’s mid-season surge provided brief fantasy utility, but his bat has completely plummeted over the past month. After teasing managers with a .361 batting average in June, July has been an unmitigated disaster:

• July Batting Average: .173
• Post-All-Star Break Average: .109
• Recent Stretch: 3-for-24 with just one home run in the second half.

The slump isn't just limited to his hit totals because even when he was struggling to begin the year, he was getting deep into counts and he was getting on base. He had a .355 OBP in May, and it was a robust .425 in June. Grisham’s fantasy viability in OBP formats traditionally relies on his ability to draw walks and work deep counts to offset a volatile batting average. However, his collapse since the break has completely erased his floor:

Joe Ryan, SP Minnesota Twins

Joe Ryan was a dependable rotation anchor for the first four months of the season. Through his first 20 starts, he surrendered just 10 home runs total. However, the long ball has suddenly become a massive problem as he’s allowed seven home runs in his last two starts alone.

Compounding the performance drop is the most alarming development of all: physical health. Ryan had his latest start pushed back due to arm fatigue. For fantasy managers, this is the second arm-related concern for Ryan this season (following an elbow scare earlier in the year).

The surface-level numbers in July paint a picture of a pitcher who is simply not missing bats. A 22.4% K-rate represents a season-low for Ryan. Without his signature swing-and-miss stuff working at elite levels, opposing hitters are making louder contact, driving the ball with authority, and racking up damage across the board. Just in July, opponents are batting .287 with a .606 SLG% and .382 wOBA.

Paul Sewald, RP Arizona Diamondbacks

After blowing a save in two of his last three chances while allowing earned runs in three of four, Paul Sewald has officially been removed as the Arizona Diamondbacks closer, and it’s probably coming far too late. Sewald has a 5.26 ERA and is allowing a 2.6 HR/9, which is an awful trait of any pitcher, but especially one in the ninth inning of games. The Diamondbacks didn’t officially name a closer, but the two clubhouse leaders are Juan Morillo and Bradyn Garcia. Sewald’s days as fantasy-relevant are gone. Totally gone.