We put our MLB PrizePicks top player prop plays in the FREE Discord over the weekend and finished 6-for-2 which included a 4-0 sweep on Saturday. We look to carry that momentum into today's slate which has some early games to target including a favorable matchup for Mariners starter George Kirby against the Baltimore Orioles.

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PrizePicks Top Plays

 

George Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts

We've talked about this before with Kirby but for some reason the books just do not give him the respect when it comes to his strikeout props and in turn that has won us a lot of money this season. Please don't be fooled by his 23.3% strikeout rate or 8.63 K/9 because he has had a few unlucky draws against teams that do not typically strike out however when facing teams that do strike out he has not disappointed. Tonight's matchup is one of those teams as he faces the Baltimore Orioles for the second time this season. In his first matchup against Baltimore, he finished with eight strikeouts. Kirby has gone over tonight's strikeout total in four of his last six starts and during those six starts he has a 25.7% strikeout rate and a K/9 of 9.53. On the season the Orioles have the eighth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and over the past two weeks they've even been worse, owning the second-highest strikeout rate at 27.3%.

 

Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Ok, I'm going to ask you just to trust me on this one. I know the recent performances from Giolito are like a horror show with the White Sox starter allowing 19 earned runs over his last 15 innings pitched as the month June just hasn't been quite it for him. That being said, we are looking at an Angels lineup that has the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season and over the past two weeks rank 20th in batting average and 21st in wOBA. No question the top part of the Angels lineup is intimidating as you face Taylor Ward, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Jared Walsh but Giolito does have a 27.2% strikeout rate this season and a K/9 of 10.8. I'm not saying he isn't going to give up runs tonight but I'm betting on him getting seven strikeouts before they take him out of the game given his opponent. 

 

Kevin Gausman Under 6.0 Strikeouts

Over his last five starts Gausman has just a 19.8% strikeout rate and a K/9 of 8.61. Tonight he faces a Red Sox lineup that has been firing on all cylinders and is far different than the Red Sox team that he dominated during his two starts all the way back in April. Over the past two weeks the Red Sox have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in baseball at 17.1% while ranking 3rd in wOBA, 4th in OPS and 2nd in batting average. Gausman isn't missing many bats and he's facing the wrong team for that tonight. 

 

Adam Wainwright Over 18.5 Outs

So we need at least 6.1 innings pitched from Waino tonight to hit the over. We've seen him hit this mark in six of his last nine starts which includes four of his last five. We also get Wainwright at home tonight where he has historically pitched better which includes this season as well where he has a 2.68 ERA while holding opponents to a .278 wOBA. The Marlins are a better hitting team against right-handed pitching this season than left-handed pitching, ranking 3rd in average and seventh in wOBA this season but those numbers do drop when on the road down to 21st in average and 18th in wOBA. Let's bank on the Marlins poor road numbers and Waino's strong home numbers to get us over the mark here tonight.

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