We've had some tough luck of late, getting hooked a few times but we charge forward and turn the page to today's slate of player props over on PrizePicks where there are some solid props worth targeting today, especially given the pitching matchups on the board.

Make sure you join our FREE PrizePicks Discord and join the #FAmily as we discuss additional plays to help build winning tickets each day! 

New to PrizePicks? Check out our offer below!

 

PrizePicks Top Plays

 

Kyle Freeland Over 17.5 Outs

We need six complete innings out of Freeland today which is something he has completed in five of his last six starts. He had tossed four no-hit innings in his last outing before the Dodgers finally got to him and chased him out of the game after 5.2 innings pitched. Freeland has been much better on the road this season than at home, posting a 3.40 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP on the road compared to a 5.23 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP at home.  Freeland tossed six shutout innings against the Diamondbacks in his lone meeting against them this season and Arizona ranks 25th in wOBA and 24th in average against LHP this season.

 

Framber Valdez Over 18.5 Outs

This is an interesting prop for Valdez today because on paper this an absolute plus matchup for Valdez as he faces the A's in Oakland. This will be his second start against the A's in Oakland this year and in the first appearance, he tossed a complete game. The lone worry for me here is the fact that Valdez has only thrown more than six innings in just seven of his 16 starts this season. Five of those seven starts have come on the road where Valdez has been significantly better this season, posting a 1.69 ERA on the road compared to a 4.04 road ERA. The A's rank 27th in average and 28th in wOBA over the last 30 days against left-handed pitching. 

 

Kyle Wright Under 4.5 Strikeouts 

Wright has been a great pitcher for the Braves this season and he averages over a strikeout per inning on the year but over his last three starts, he has finished with four or fewer strikeouts in each outing. Today he faces a Nationals team that has the second-lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball at 19.2% and over the last two weeks that number is even lower at 17.9%. 

 

Hunter Greene Over 5.5 Strikeouts

This is a pretty low strikeout total for Greene today and it's likely due to the fact he is pitching at home and against a Rays offense that could do some early damage here and get him out of the game. That being said,  Greene has finished with six or more strikeouts in 12 of his 16 starts this season and in 11 of his last 12 outings. The Rays still have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against RHP on the year at 24.8%.

 

Madison Bumgarner Over 3.0 Earned Runs

Bumgarner is due for a blowup start. He has managed to pitch to a 3.74 ERA on the year through 17 starts but his xERA is 4.82, his FIP is 4.68 and his xFIP is 4.87. He has a career-low 6.5 K/9 with a career-worst 3.09 BB/9. Today he faces a Rockies team that ranks 1st in batting average, 2nd in OPS and 2nd in wOBA against left-handed pitching over the past 30 days. I know that three earned runs is a pretty high number but this matchup seems prime for Bumgarner to get hit early and often.

Fantasy Alarm is the home of expert MLB Fantasy content. We also bring you all of the best online sportsbook free bets & promo codes and fantasy sports bonuses. 

Follow me on Twitter for more PrizePicks discussions! @jimpemba777

Related Links