Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Tuesday, July 28th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's slates have multiple different directions with some elite pitchers in Chris Sale, Gavin Williams, and Gerrit Cole all taking the mound. It's also a Sutter Health Field and Great American Ballpark slate. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 9-Games on DK, 8-Games on FD | Lock Time: 7:10 pm ET, Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

Vegas Totals: BOS/ATH (highest-projected game), SEA/LAD (second-highest game total), CLE/CIN, KC/MIN, CHC/STL (tied for third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Chris Sale 7.5 O/U (+110), Taj Bradley 6.5 O/U (-107), Gerrit Cole 6.5 O/U (+109), Reid Detmers 6.5 O/U (+116)

MLB Weather Today, 7/28

Braves vs Mets - This game has been postponed.

Guardians vs Reds - There are 5-10 MPH winds blowing out. Helps the bats.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Gerrit Cole (NYY)

Analysis: Cole’s missed-bat metrics have taken a massive leap forward. He posted an 11.7% SwStr% two starts ago before exploding for a season-high 22.6% SwStr% in his last outing. Unsurprisingly, the strikeouts have followed closely behind. The strikeout surge has translated directly into fantasy production, with Cole reaching or exceeding 22+ DraftKings Points in three of his last four starts. The White Sox carry a 23.2% K-rate against RHP into this matchup.

Gavin Williams (CLE)

Analysis: Williams enters tonight on a absurd strikeout surge, racking up 11 strikeouts in three straight starts. His 30.7% K-rate ranks 3rd among all qualified starting pitchers in the league. The Cincinnati Reds present the single best matchup in baseball for high-K righties. Cincinnati carries MLB’s highest K-rate against RHP at 24.9%, giving Williams maximum opportunity to pile up punch outs. The Reds' offense has struggled significantly to generate runs, ranking dead last in the majors with a 30th-ranked 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I almost don't believe the field isn't going to play him but if they don't, he's the best pitcher on the slate.

Justin Wrobleski (LAD)

Analysis: Wrobleski has notched 7+ strikeouts in three straight starts, backed by a sustained jump in missed bats. He has generated an 11.7% or higher SwStr rate in each of those three outings, which is a massive shift considering he had only two such games prior to this current run. The Mariners remain one of the most vulnerable matchups in MLB against southpaws. Seattle ranks near the bottom of the league versus LHP, sitting 26th in wRC+ (89) and 29th in OPS (.642). Along with their lack of offensive production against LHP, Seattle strikes out at a high 23.8% rate versus southpaws.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Taj Bradley (MIN)

Analysis: Bradley has been on a tear, eclipsing 20+ DraftKings Points in five of his last six starts. Bradley has recorded 5+ strikeouts in six straight starts and in seven of his last eight outings. The Royals offense has struggled heavily against right-handed pitching, ranking in the bottom-10 in MLB vs. RHP this season. Kansas City's lineup is missing its focal point with Bobby Witt out, drastically reducing their overall run-creation threat and elevating Bradley’s path to a win and quality start.

Reid Detmers (LAA)

Analysis: Detmers possesses raw swing-and-miss stuff capable of breaking slates. His pitch profile generates elevated whiff rates, giving him a massive strikeout baseline whenever he steps on the mound. The betting markets are heavily leaning into his missed-bat upside tonight, posting an aggressive strikeout prop that signals high upside for DFS managers looking for punch out volume. Oddsmakers are heavily backing Detmers to pitch deep into this outing, positioning him as a strong favorite to clear six full innings (18+ outs). Working late into the game significantly boosts his win probability, quality start bonus, and overall points floor. The only thing I'm worried about is the Angels pulling him early because they've done it in two straight starts.

Michael King (SD)

Analysis: King is locked into a highly effective groove, allowing 2 ER or fewer in four straight starts. During this stretch, he has delivered three QS. Colorado's offense drops off dramatically when playing away from Coors Field. While they hold a modest 95 wRC+ overall against right-handed pitching, that number dips to a 91 wRC+ on the road, alongside a lackluster .695 team OPS (ranking 20th). Despite King's reduced punch out totals this year, Colorado provides an ideal matchup to elevate his floor, as they have struck out at a 23.7% clip on the road vs. RHP. He's safe.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Logan Henderson: 31.8% K% (11 K/9)

Gavin Williams: 30.7% K% (11.1 K/9)

Reid Detmers: 27.6% K% (10.2 K/9) 

Taj Bradley: 26.8% K% (10.1 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Willson Contreras (1B, BOS) & Ceddanne Rafaela (OF, BOS)

Analysis: Willson Contreras has a robust .307 ISO and .383 xISO against left-handed pitching this year. Rafaela also has a .223 ISO and .360 wOBA against righties in his own right. Two of the best per dollar plays of the day.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC)

Analysis: I'm anti-Michael McGreevy until the end of time. His underlying numbers are horrible and I'll take that to the grave. Lefties have a .227 xISO and .369 xwOBA and he's facing the possible NL MVP in PCA here. PCA has a .293 ISO and .406 wOBA vs. RHP.

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) & Trevor Larnach (OF, MIN)

Analysis: The righties have REALLY done damage but lefties have good numbers against Seth Lugo too. Buxton is reverse splits in his own right with a .326 ISO vs. RHP while Larnach has been an ELITE OBP guy for Minnesota and against righties. They're a nice mini stack.

Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD) & Max Muncy (3B, LAD)

Analysis: I'm good with any and all Dodgers today but they're very expensive. Lefties have a .231 ISO and .356 wOBA against Luis Castillo this year. They're going to hit side-by-side in the Dodgers order and both have crushed righties. Freeman has a .211 ISO and .405 wOBA while Muncy has a .240 ISO and .367 wOBA.

Jackson Merrill (OF, SD)

Analysis: Over his last 10 games, Jackson Merrill is hitting .333 with an OPS north of 1.100. The power is where my interest lies because he's hit five bombs over that span and is now up to 15 on the year. Lefties have killed Lorezen this year to the tune of a .275 ISO and .436 wOBA.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Jahmai Jones (OF, BOS), Caleb Durbin (3B, BOS) & Romy Gonzalez (1B/2B, BOS)

Analysis: Jahmai Jones has a certain set of skills and whether or not it's similar to Liam Neeson is none of my business. He hits lefties hard and has a chance at leading off today. Durbin's cheap and has been awesome for some time now. Romy Gonzalez; noted lefty killer too.

Pedro Ramirez (3B, CHC)

Analysis: Ramirez has just been a really good major league hitter lately. He's riding a seven-game hitting streak and is up over .300 for the year. He's going up against a pitcher who simply continues getting lucky and I don't buy it.

Luis Rengifo (3B/OF, SD) & Jake Cronenworth (2B, SD)

Analysis: The moral of the story is lefties against Michael Lorenzen. He's allowed a .275 ISO and .436 wOBA to lefty swingers and the Padres have two cheap lefty bats. Rengifo is on a tear since joining the Padres and it's been an extended period of time in which Jake Cronenworth has been a solid bat for San Diego.

Paul Goldschmidt (1B, NYY) & Jasson Dominguez (OF, NYY)

Analysis: Anthony Kay struggles with righties and here are two of the better values the Yankees have to offer. Goldy has gaudy numbers against left-handers this year. Dominguez has been good from the right side of the plate posting a .172 ISO.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Boston Red Sox vs Gage Jump (ATH RHP)

Targets: Willson Contreras, Romy Gonzalez, Curtis Mead (if active), Caleb Durbin, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jahmai Jones

Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Luis Castillo (SEA RHP)

Targets: Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Dalton Rushing

Primary Stack: Minnesota Twins vs Seth Lugo (KC RHP)

Targets: Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers, Brooks Lee

“Contrarian” Stack: San Diego Padres vs Michael Lorenzen (COL RHP)

Targets: Luis Rengifo, Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis

"Contrarian" Stack: Chicago Cubs vs Michael McGreevy (STL RHP)

Targets: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Pedro Ramirez, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Cole (SP, chalk)Williams (SP, lower owned)Low-owned stud with 11 Ks in three straight starts.
Guardians (Chalk)Cubs (pivot stack)Maybe I'm still the only person on the planet that doesn't believe in any McGreevy surface level stats.
Bazzana + Rocchio (chalk)Merrill + Rengifo (lower owned)The Guardians have given us no reason to stack their offense. Pads offense has clicked lately.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Gavin Williams (SP1)
  2. Taj Bradley (SP2)
  3. Willson Contreras (Core Bat)
  4. Ceddanne Rafaela (Core Bat)
  5. Max Muncy (Core Bat) 
  6. Jahmai Jones (Core Value Bat)
  7. Caleb Durbin (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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