Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Sunday, October 4th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 2-Game Main | Lock Time: 4:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 4th, 2026

Vegas Totals: ATL/LAD & SD/MIL (tied for highest-projected game total)

Highest K-Projections: Blake Snell 6.5 O/U (-134), Logan Henderson 6.5 O/U (+116), Michael King 5.5 O/U (+117)

MLB Weather Today, 10/4

No weather issues. 

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 10-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Blake Snell: 31.8% K% (11.6 K/9)

Chris Sale: 30.9% K% (11.1  K/9) (if he starts)

Logan Henderson: 29.6% K% (10.1 K/9)

Michael King: 21% K% (7.7 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

San Diego Padres Breakdown

The Padres are sending Michael King to the mound for Game 2 of this series and is coming off a monster first postseason outing with seven scoreless and eight strikeouts. The Brewers strike out a bunch against the righties (24.5%) but have had a 115 wRC+ since the break. Tough spot.

The offense is in a tricky spot because Logan Henderson is so good. He misses a ton of bats. Lefty power has given Henderson the most issues this season (.182 ISO) which means Jackson Merrill & Gavin Sheets are the two power options. Of course you can play Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, or Ty France, but I prefer the lefties.

Milwaukee Brewers Breakdown

Logan Henderson has a tough draw today as the Padres are the BEST offense in baseball vs. RHP since the All-Star break but Henderson has the second best strikeout odds behind Snell as well as second best odds to win a game.

For the season, lefties had better underlying numbers against Michael King but over the last 30 days, they leaned towards the righties (105 pitches, .205 ISO & .368 wOBA) which means there's a lot of variety you can go to. Brice Turang and Jake Bauers are the top-two on the numbers front vs. RHP while Jackson Chourio and Garrett Mitchell aren't far behind.

Rounding out my stack, Christian Yelich and David Hamilton are solid value options. Yelich has a long history vs. RHP and Hamilton has speed that could change the game.

Atlanta Braves Breakdown

We still, at this point in time, don't know if Chris Sale is starting today or not. If he starts, things change quite drastically. If he doesn't start, well, none of this matters. TBD on what the Braves are doing.

The offense is just in a BRUTAL spot. They face Blake Snell who decimates everyone, but we'll show off which Braves hit lefties well;

Los Angeles Dodgers Breakdown

Sending Blake Snell out to the mound is a good feeling if you're the Dodgers as he has the best numbers in Vegas today. Best strikeout odds and best odds to win the game. The Braves offense hasn't been good against lefties this year posting an 89 wRC+ since the break.

It's hard to talk about the Dodgers offense without knowing if Chris Sale will pitch this game or not. If it's not Sale, the Dodgers are likely the best stack on the board. If it's Sale who starts, I don't see myself going too heavy into the Dodgers.

Dodgers good vs. LHP;

Dodgers good vs. RHP;

  • Shohei Ohtani - .227 ISO, .260 xISO, .378 wOBA, .408 xwOBA
  • Will Smith - .192 ISO, .247 xISO, .369 wOBA, .408 xwOBA
  • Max Muncy - .236 ISO & xISO, .359 wOBA, .360 xwOBA