Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Thursday, May 14th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS projections, running lineups through our DFS optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. Today's seven-game main slate has multiple different directions to go because there is quality depth on the mound, led by Chase Burns, Nolan McLean, and Kyle Harrison. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 7-Game Main  |  Lock Time: 12:35 PM ET, Thursday May 14, 2026

Vegas Totals: STL/ATH (highest-projected game), SEA/HOU (second-highest), MIA/MIN (third-highest)

Highest K-Projections: Chase Burns 6.5 O/U (-128), Nolan McLean 6.5 O/U (-106), Kyle Harrison 5.5 O/U (-140)

MLB Weather Today, 5/14

The only thing weather related today is Colorado/Pittsburgh and winds are blowing out around 15 MPH.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Chase Burns (CIN)

Analysis: Burns' strikeouts haven't been on full display like they were last year, but he still has a 26% K-rate and has been the best pitcher on the slate. He's been incredibly consistent putting up 15+ DKP in all but one start this year and has 20+ in five of his eight overall.

Nolan McLean (NYM)

Analysis: McLean is my top pitcher today and is being owned as such. He's the highest rostered pitcher of the day. The Tigers have been an awful offense in May ranking 26th or worse in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against righties. They've also struck out nearly 25% of the time too.

Kyle Harrison (MIL)

Analysis: The Padres have simply done nothing against left-handed pitching this year ranking 27th in wRC+ with a 78 mark. Horrible. They've also struck out 23.5% of the time. Harrison has shown a MASSIVE ceiling this year putting up a 40 DKP outing in which he struck out 12. Harrison has the second-highest K-rate in the league.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Chase Dollander (COL)

Analysis: Dollander has been elite on the road this year pitching to a 2.63 ERA and .198 AVG. He's an elite strikeout arm for his price point. He's getting ownership because his price is suggesting he's pitching in Colorado, but Pittsburgh is far from Colorado.

Braxton Garrett (MIA)

Analysis: Minnesota has been a league average offense against left-handed pitching and Braxton Garrett has pitched REALLY well at the minor league level this year. Garrett's been at 9.2 K/9 and has pitched to a 2.3 ERA. He's half the ownership of Chase Dollander.

Top Options For Strikeouts

The three top strikeout targets in today's MLB DFS projections each carry a K/9 above 10.9 and favorable opponent strikeout splits. K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the nine-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Nolan McLean: 32.6% K% (11.3 K/9)

Kyle Harrison: 29.3% K% (10.9 K/9)

Chase Burns: 26.1% K% (9.2 K/9)

Chase Dollander: 26.1% K% (9.8 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carry K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU)

Analysis: Luis Castillo has had an elevated flyball rate and has served up a bunch of home runs. Alvarez has a .282 ISO, .374 xISO, .430 wOBA, and .474 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this year.

Jordan Walker (OF, STL)

Analysis: The flyball rate is elevated for Jacob Lopez and it's in the day time with warm weather. The ball typically carries really well in Sacramento. Righties have a .250 ISO and .398 wOBA against righties this year. Walker's demolished lefties this year posting a .324 ISO and .369 wOBA.

Nick Kurtz (1B, ATH)

Analysis: The luck probably runs out for Michael McGreevy today in Sacramento. Lefties have a .123 ISO but a .265 xISO, .360 wOBA but a .380 xwOBA. Kurtz has a .232 ISO, .316 xISO, .423 wOBA, and .458 xwOBA against righties this year.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Christian Walker (1B, HOU)

Analysis: Walker has mashed right-handed pitching this year posting a .256 ISO and .393 wOBA and eight of his homers have come off them. Righties have a .391 wOBA and despite only allowing a .117 ISO it's a .172 xISO.

Josh Naylor (1B, SEA)

Analysis: Lefties have killed Mike Burrows this year allowing a .247 ISO and .419 wOBA. The fact that Naylor's price is still sitting at where it is across the industry. Naylor has a .184 xISO and .368 xwOBA against righties this year.

Carson Benge & A.J. Ewing (OF, NYM)

Analysis: Some of the Mets rookies are VERY interesting today. Keider Montero isn't the greatest pitcher and doesn't miss many bats. The expected stuff against lefties looks pretty bad. He has allowed just a .118 ISO but .198 xISO and has generated only 7.5% SwStr. Benge is really heating up hitting .375 with an OPS of 1.000 over his last 10 games and Ewing has been electric since being called up.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Athletics vs Michael McGreevy (STL RHP)

Why: The luck is going to completely run out for Michael McGreevy and it's very possible it happens in a minor league park in Sacramento. McGreevy's ERA is 2.18 and his xERA is 5.05. He's also allowed just a .200 BABIP too. Lefties are the preferred option considering the underlying stuff looks really bad for him against LHH (.123 ISO, .265 xISO, .260 wOBA, .380 xwOBA). Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Carlos Cortes are their best hitters from the left side, but I'd throw in Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, and Henry Bolte if he's in the lineup.

Primary Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs Jacob Lopez (ATH LHP)

Why: Jacob Lopez is a major flyball pitcher and that doesn't bode well for him in his home ballpark. He's allowed a 6.75 ERA at home along with a .482 SLG% and .364 wOBA. I really like the right-handed hitters here such as Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Jose Fermin stand out from the right side. If finishing up a five-pack, JJ Wetherholt or Alec Burleson makes sense.

Primary Stack: Seattle Mariners vs Mike Burrows (HOU RHP)

Why: The Mariners offense has been much better late and has been top-10 against righties in wRC+, which adjusts to part factor. Lefties have killed Mike Burrows this year and the Mariners have no shortage there as they're likely throw Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Brendan Donovan, Luke Raley, J.P. Crawford, and Dominic Canzone at him and Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena from the right side.

"Contrarian" Stack: Houston Astros vs Luis Castillo (HOU RHP)

Why: This is such an elite spot and the Astros are getting zero ownership. Righties are hitting .351 with a .391 wOBA against Castillo while lefties have a .512 SLG% and .374 wOBA. This is such an elite spot and they're so cheap outside of Yordan Alvarez. Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, Cam Smith, and Zach Cole all look great.

"Contrarian" Stack: New York Mets vs Keider Montero (DET RHP)

Why: Now that we know Juan Soto's in the lineup, things look much better and the lineup looks much deeper. Montero's flyballs are WAY up to 55.6% and that's 18% higher than last year. Flyballs are up, hard-hit rate is up, and groundballs are down. The Mets are REALLY cheap and Montero continues to run extremely lucky this year. Juan Soto, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Mark Vientos, and Bo Bichette are a fantastic alt stack.

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
McLean (SP, chalk)

Burns (SP,

similar tier)

I like McLean as my top arm, but there's a big ownership gap and Burns has arguably been the better overall pitcher this season.
SEA + MIA as primary stacksHOU + ATH as contrarian stacksI love that Houston isn't getting ownership because Castillo gives up a lot of power. The A's have the third-highest implied total and nobody's playing them.
Hicks + Raleigh (chalk)Alvarez + Kurtz (lower owned)Nobody's playing two elite talents? I guess I'm nobody.

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Nolan McLean (SP1)
  2. Chase Dollander (SP2)
  3. Yordan Alvarez (Core Bat)
  4. Nick Kurtz (Core Bat)
  5. Jordan Walker (Core Bat)
  6. Josh Naylor (Core Value Bat)
  7. Isaac Paredes (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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