Following yesterday’s light transition day, we have the full start of the weekend series, and with it being the final ones before the NFL season starts taking over for some fans, you’re going to want to cash in with our MLB home run picks more than ever! After all, it will help set us up for a successful football season as well. We’ll tell you now that the Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sanchez showdown isn’t going to be our priority, but there are still worthy spots. As always, we’ll share both the names of our top MLB home run predictions today plus a full breakdown of each one!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Beyond the two lefty studs in the same game are plenty of other strikeout props to consider, game markets, and more. That means having more than just MLB home run picks, so be sure to check in with our MLB expert picks. We should also note that we have a Friday afternoon game, and rather than the classic Wrigley Field one, it’s in the AL Central with Tigers vs. Guardians. One last thing before we start getting into each of our MLB home run predictions: enjoy our exclusive, updated MLB home run prop tool for even more options!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/4: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We noted that Wrigley Field wasn’t on the menu this weekend, but just because that wind won’t be impacting MLB home run picks, our MLB weather report is still a must-have with such a huge slate on tap. Coors Field is indeed up for grabs, and with Kyle Leahy vs. Ryan Feltner, starting pitcher metrics need to be broken down.

That means their righty/lefty splits, home/road splits, expected ISO allowed, hard-hit rates, and more. Hitters have many of the same analytics to consider, along with others like launch-angle sweet-spot rates, barrel rates, and more. Along with bullpen considerations, you’ll see all sorts of factors for our MLB home run picks below!

Jake Bauers (+303)

It feels like we just got to enjoy one of our favorite trios, and it’s already back - Cincinnati Reds righty Rhett Lowder, their terrible bullpen, and the Great American Ball Park. What’s even better is that we love targeting the lineup facing that trio - the Milwaukee Brewers! You’ve seen us cash MLB home run picks with Jackson Chourio quite recently, so how could we not love their lineup?

It’s one that has also come through for us from the left side of the plate, and that’s where we’re focusing our attention tonight. That’s because Lowder vs. lefties is a dream; southpaws have a .231 expected ISO against him. Normally, this is where we say pick-your-poison, but this time, we are very locked in with Jake Bauers.

Not only has he been stronger than Brice Turang as of late, but he’s also homered off Lowder in back-to-back starts! He’s got his number, so we love leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Jake Bauers hitting a HR (+303 at DraftKings). 

Esmerlyn Valdez (+560)

Brandon Lowe let us down yesterday at PNC Park (of course, that means he’s going yard tonight), but we’re still going to go back to Pittsburgh. That’s because the Pirates are now hosting a different Cali team - the Los Angeles Angels. That means a bad bullpen, and before we even have to rely on that unit for MLB home run picks, it means facing Ryan Johnson.

The righty has terrible metrics across the board, including a sixth percentile barrel rate. Seeing that righties have the better power numbers against him is why we’ve pivoted away from Lowe and Oneil Cruz. The rookie we’re rolling with has insane power with what would be a 100th percentile barrel rate if he had the appearances to “qualify” for it.

We’ll admit he’s a boom-or-bust type of hitter, but with Johnson on the mound and the LA bullpen, we see more boom tonight to add to our top MLB home run picks today with Esmerlyn Valdez hitting a HR (+560 at FanDuel). 

Jac Caglianone (+400)

If we had Jameson Taillon healthy all season, he’d all but certainly be leading the league in homers allowed. We saw him allow multiple in three of five starts in April, five in a SINGLE start in May, multiple in both his July starts, and we could go on and on. Now with Toronto, we expect him to allow some MLB home run picks to cash against the Royals.

The game is in Kansas City, which we already love, and we’ve seen Carter Jensen have an amazing week at his home ballpark. We’re going to swap to a different lefty that we’ve also loved thanks to his 98th percentile hard-hit rate, leading to his .221 ISO vs. right-handed pitching with a .244 expected ISO.

Bobby Witt Jr. is your added-value play in this spot, but with Taillon allowing a ridiculous .299 ISO to lefties, we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks today with Jac Caglianone hitting a HR (20%, so +400, at Novig).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

There really are so many solid spots for MLB home run picks today, and for even more exciting Friday night fireworks, here’s our favorite longshot…

One of the spots that we love for both teams to hit HRs is Diamondbacks vs. Astros, and with Cristian Javier still far from looking like his usual self, this is a spot for the Arizona switch-hitter to smash his 10th homer of the season, and most importantly, cash our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

For the ultimate Friday night fireworks, let’s go for an even bigger potential payout than with that longshot. That’s by piecing together a few MLB home run picks into a for-fun parlay…

Leading off with a guy who has become quite boom-or-bust but can always smack multiple HRs in a game, Nolan is an under-the-radar play for us today, and the Cardinals lefty gets to enjoy Coors Field. With all that under your belt, all that’s left to do is lock in the best MLB home run picks for today!