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There are some days you can bargain shop for hurlers and there are some days you just have to suck it up and pay for pitching. Today would be the latter. You’ve got some real nice talent with solid match-ups at the top and you’ve got some dogs at the bottom. Not just dogs, but dogs with fleas. Street dogs with fleas and probably worms too. So let’s not screw around and just talk about who we like for today.
***UPDATE: Stephen Strasburg has been scratched tonight due to an illness and is being replaced by Tanner Roark. Obviously the skill sets of each pitcher is quite different, but it is still a very favorable match-up against the Braves. I would consider him for GPP play, though many will likely pivot to him because of the price. I'm not ready to trust him in cash lineups.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||
| Name | Team | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | FD | DK | Aces |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | R | A | TB | 183.2 | 10.58 | 2.11 | 0.88 | 3.63 | 2.66 | 1.07 | 51.2% | 29.8% | 1.72 | 0.277 | 0.283 | $10,200 | $11,900 | $6,700 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | R | H | TEX | 169.2 | 8.33 | 2.12 | 1.33 | 4.56 | 3.82 | 1.20 | 38.6% | 39.0% | 0.99 | 0.310 | 0.312 | $8,800 | $10,000 | $6,100 |
| Drew Smyly | TB | L | H | CLE | 66.2 | 10.39 | 2.70 | 1.48 | 3.10 | 3.47 | 1.17 | 36.8% | 44.3% | 0.83 | 0.227 | 0.324 | $8,700 | $10,400 | $5,500 |
| John Lackey | CHC | R | H | CIN | 218.0 | 7.22 | 2.19 | 0.87 | 2.77 | 3.77 | 1.21 | 46.0% | 33.3% | 1.38 | 0.326 | 0.269 | $8,500 | $8,300 | $6,100 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | L | A | MIN | 139.1 | 8.98 | 4.59 | 0.71 | 3.75 | 4.03 | 1.44 | 46.8% | 29.8% | 1.57 | 0.247 | 0.350 | $8,500 | $9,500 | $5,900 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | R | A | OAK | 135.1 | 7.71 | 2.33 | 1.60 | 4.46 | 4.16 | 1.26 | 39.2% | 42.4% | 0.92 | 0.316 | 0.337 | $8,400 | $5,400 | $5,900 |
| Yordano Ventura | KC | R | A | HOU | 163.1 | 8.60 | 3.20 | 0.77 | 4.08 | 3.60 | 1.30 | 52.2% | 27.2% | 1.92 | 0.319 | 0.295 | $8,200 | $8,500 | $6,100 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | R | A | BOS | 184.0 | 8.22 | 3.33 | 0.98 | 4.11 | 3.83 | 1.36 | 49.1% | 28.8% | 1.70 | 0.308 | 0.333 | $7,900 | $7,600 | $6,050 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | R | H | BAL | 134.1 | 7.37 | 3.28 | 1.00 | 4.82 | 4.08 | 1.44 | 45.6% | 29.4% | 1.55 | 0.305 | 0.365 | $7,800 | $6,100 | $5,350 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | R | A | TOR | 160.2 | 8.74 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 4.37 | 2.95 | 1.23 | 48.2% | 29.9% | 1.62 | 0.318 | 0.326 | $7,700 | $8,900 | $6,400 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | L | H | NYY | 172.0 | 7.90 | 2.35 | 0.84 | 3.61 | 3.69 | 1.27 | 41.6% | 34.1% | 1.22 | 0.294 | 0.307 | $7,600 | $7,700 | $5,800 |
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | R | A | CHC | 187.0 | 5.63 | 3.27 | 1.16 | 5.05 | 4.78 | 1.44 | 43.6% | 34.6% | 1.26 | 0.369 | 0.320 | $7,600 | $5,800 | $5,250 |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | R | H | KC | 108.1 | 5.07 | 2.24 | 1.08 | 3.90 | 4.09 | 1.31 | 48.9% | 27.5% | 1.78 | 0.287 | 0.354 | $7,300 | $5,900 | $5,650 |
| Alex Wood | LAD | L | H | ARI | 189.2 | 6.60 | 2.80 | 0.71 | 3.84 | 3.90 | 1.36 | 49.5% | 27.5% | 1.80 | 0.228 | 0.343 | $7,200 | $6,900 | $5,800 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | R | H | CHW | 155.1 | 5.45 | 0.93 | 1.68 | 4.40 | 4.31 | 1.29 | 35.3% | 40.4% | 0.87 | 0.326 | 0.369 | $6,900 | $7,300 | $5,850 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | H | MIL | 192.0 | 5.58 | 2.30 | 1.03 | 3.70 | 3.93 | 1.16 | 51.8% | 26.6% | 1.94 | 0.314 | 0.274 | $6,700 | $8,100 | $5,800 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | R | H | SD | 51.0 | 8.65 | 2.29 | 0.88 | 2.65 | 3.60 | 1.04 | 37.9% | 40.0% | 0.95 | 0.353 | 0.203 | $6,600 | $7,900 | $5,650 |
| Jake Peavy | SF | R | A | COL | 110.2 | 6.34 | 2.03 | 0.98 | 3.58 | 4.47 | 1.12 | 37.9% | 45.1% | 0.84 | 0.280 | 0.312 | $6,600 | $6,400 | $5,700 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | R | H | MIA | 47.2 | 7.36 | 2.83 | 1.13 | 3.59 | 4.15 | 1.03 | 44.6% | 39.2% | 1.14 | 0.283 | 0.243 | $6,600 | $5,600 | $5,450 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | R | A | SEA | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $6,200 | $7,900 | $5,550 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | L | A | NYM | 67.0 | 7.93 | 2.82 | 0.94 | 3.76 | 4.21 | 1.28 | 40.6% | 40.6% | 1.00 | 0.344 | 0.308 | $6,100 | $6,800 | $5,400 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | R | A | STL | 152.2 | 6.54 | 2.36 | 1.06 | 4.30 | 4.17 | 1.30 | 42.0% | 34.4% | 1.22 | 0.325 | 0.325 | $6,000 | $7,500 | $5,500 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | R | A | WAS | 109.0 | 5.94 | 3.30 | 1.32 | 4.71 | 5.10 | 1.46 | 33.6% | 43.2% | 0.78 | 0.419 | 0.284 | $6,000 | $6,800 | $5,500 |
| Rubby De La Rosa | ARI | R | A | LAD | 188.2 | 7.16 | 3.01 | 1.53 | 4.67 | 4.10 | 1.36 | 49.1% | 32.8% | 1.49 | 0.404 | 0.266 | $5,900 | $7,100 | $5,550 |
| Shane Greene | DET | R | A | PIT | 83.2 | 5.38 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 6.88 | 4.76 | 1.55 | 43.8% | 33.1% | 1.32 | 0.425 | 0.327 | $5,800 | $5,200 | $5,300 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | PIT | R | H | DET | 135.0 | 7.20 | 3.87 | 1.13 | 4.67 | 4.55 | 1.47 | 44.7% | 36.1% | 1.24 | 0.383 | 0.300 | $5,600 | $6,300 | $5,750 |
| Colin Rea | SD | R | A | PHI | 31.2 | 7.39 | 3.13 | 0.57 | 4.26 | 3.93 | 1.26 | 46.2% | 30.1% | 1.54 | 0.289 | 0.331 | $5,000 | $7,000 | $5,350 |
| Jordan Lyles | COL | R | H | SF | 49.0 | 5.51 | 3.49 | 0.37 | 5.14 | 4.40 | 1.49 | 49.7% | 24.5% | 2.03 | 0.353 | 0.306 | $4,900 | $5,000 | $5,200 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | L | H | LAA | 3.1 | 10.80 | 2.70 | 5.40 | 10.80 | 4.32 | 1.50 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 1.50 | 0.795 | 0.272 | $4,800 | $6,000 | $5,300 |
Investing Heavily
Stephen Strasburg, WAS – The best pitcher on the board also has the softest match-up.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE – The win could be up for grabs facing Smyly, but the Rays have a 24.9-percent strikeout rate against right-handers this year, so there’s still obvious DFS upside.
Moderately Priced
Taijuan Walker, SEA – Love the home start for Walker against a Rangers team that has a 23.6-percent strikeout rate, a .282 wOBA versus righties and very subpar .107 ISO. They also have just a .316 slugging percentage for those who prefer that over ISO as a stat.
Drew Smyly, TB – First off, RIDICULOUS bargain on Fantasy Aces today. His price is just criminal. The Indians have a 24.8-percent strikeout rate against southpaws this season and are posting a .272 wOBA with below-average power against them. Might be tough to nail down the win if Carrasco is in top form.
John Lackey, CHC – I’m looking at a bounce-back performance from Lackey here and facing the Reds whose 66 wRC+ ranks 29th in the league, is a nice confidence-builder. It also helps that they’re posting a lame .283 wOBA with a very unhealthy .114 ISO versus righties.
Carlos Rodon, CHW – I am totally crushing on Rodon today as the price is reasonable and the Twins are terrible. They’ve got a 23.1-percent fan rate against southparws and are sitting on a dreadful .250 wOBA against them. And of course, let’s not forget the .057 ISO which is downright laughable.
Matt Shoemaker, LAA – Time to pick on the A’s again, people. Against right-handers, they’ve posted dismal .258 wOBA, just a .321 slugging percentage and they strike out 24.1-percent of the time. His price on Draft Kings is insanely low.
Middle Class
Scott Feldman, HOU – The Royals aren’t exactly off to a killer start here with a .274 wOBA and 20.4 percent strikeout rate against right-handers. But what I like most is Feldman’s 1.78 GB/FB rate he’s shown in the past going up against the Royals current 51.3-percent ground ball rate.
Phil Hughes, MIN – While he’s going to have trouble outdueling Rodon for the win, Hughes can still make a positive impact for you in the daily formats. The White Sox .083 ISO ranks 29th in the league while they rank 27th overall with a .266 wOBA against righties.
Jerad Eickhoff, PHI – Bit of a dart here and a guy only for a flier in GPP tournaments, but Eickhoff has a positive match-up on paper against the Padres. The 24.6-percent K-rate, the .275 wOBA and the .114 ISO all point in Eickhoff’s favor, but we might be asking for too much here.
Bargain Basement
I trust no one down here.
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