In a bit of a change of pace, we have a shorter 9-game DFS MLB slate that has a roster lock of 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT tonight.
Weather could be an issue in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, but I wouldn’t be too certain about it unless there’s updated information that comes out closer to roster lock.
Clayton Kershaw will undoubtedly be the most popular choice at pitcher tonight, so there will be an extreme need for quality value options on both DraftKings and FanDuel. For those who are looking to pair up Kershaw and Strasburg or Kershaw and Bumgarner on DraftKings though, good luck!
So yes, given the multitude of premium options at pitcher tonight, I am including A LOT of value plays. Don’t take it in the sense that I’m saying Steven Moya is better than Mike Trout. He is not. He is just a better play than Mike Trout if you’re looking for value. I am also not saying that the three Pirates in my lineup are better than all of the Red Sox. Let’s be realistic here. The Red Sox are incredibly expensive on every single site. So in that sense, no, I am not saying that Daniel Nava is better than Mookie Betts.
Of course, as lineups come out, more value plays will come out. If you want to hear my opinion regarding any players in particular, please don’t be afraid to let me know. I can easily be reached on Twitter @kle18.
| CATCHER | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Team | Bats | Opp | Opp Pitch | AB | H | HR | R | RBI | BB | SB | AVG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | LD% | Hard% | Z-Cont% | FD | DK | Aces |
| Evan Gattis | HOU | R | LAA | Jhoulys Chacin | 178 | 38 | 11 | 23 | 28 | 17 | 0 | .213 | .725 | .225 | .229 | .303 | 14.8% | 35.2% | 82.5% | $3,000 | $3,600 | $4,200 |
| Nick Hundley | COL | R | MIA | Paul Clemens | 76 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 0 | .250 | .808 | .184 | .279 | .343 | 11.1% | 34.4% | 83.2% | $2,300 | $2,700 | $4,450 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | R | STL | Jaime Garcia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | .000 | 2.031 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | $2,200 | $2,000 | $3,400 |
| Steve Clevenger | SEA | L | DET | Mike Pelfrey | 61 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 0 | .230 | .647 | .098 | .271 | .291 | 20.4% | 30.6% | 92.5% | $2,100 | $3,000 | $3,400 |
Evan Gattis went on a horrific run, going hitless in six consecutive games prior to breaking through on Saturday against the Reds. He has now homered in back-to-back games, and is still priced extremely cheaply throughout the industry.
Nick Hundley will likely get the start tonight against Paul Clemens of the Marlins. Huntley has been solid, reaching bas safely in seven of his last 18 plate appearances, and is only $2300 on FanDuel.
Willson Contreras will get the start tonight against Jaime Garcia and the Cardinals. Contreras batted .350/.439/.591 with nine home runs in Triple-A Iowa, and homered in his first career MLB at-bat last night against the Pirates. Gotta love his price throughout the industry, and I have to think he’s going to have heavy ownership tonight at a minimum price throughout the industry.
Steve Clevenger has been very productive in recent weeks even though he’s rarely in the starting lineup. He has hits in each of his last seven starts, going 8-for-24 (.333 AVG) with three doubles and five walks.
| FIRST BASE | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Team | Bats | Opp | Opp Pitch | AB | H | HR | R | RBI | BB | SB | AVG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | LD% | Hard% | Z-Cont% | FD | DK | Aces |
| David Ortiz | BOS | L | CHW | Miguel Gonzalez | 231 | 79 | 18 | 32 | 59 | 32 | 2 | .342 | 1.133 | .368 | .349 | .463 | 21.8% | 47.2% | 90.9% | $4,400 | $5,500 | $5,400 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | R | BOS | Steven Wright | 268 | 71 | 10 | 28 | 42 | 21 | 0 | .265 | .760 | .172 | .296 | .320 | 17.6% | 32.9% | 88.0% | $3,600 | $4,000 | $5,150 |
| Matt Adams | STL | L | CHC | John Lackey | 157 | 47 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 11 | 0 | .299 | .882 | .236 | .349 | .372 | 20.7% | 33.9% | 86.0% | $3,100 | $3,200 | $4,650 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | LAD | L | WSH | Stephen Strasburg | 248 | 68 | 6 | 24 | 32 | 29 | 0 | .274 | .737 | .113 | .337 | .318 | 23.3% | 31.6% | 86.8% | $2,600 | $2,600 | $4,650 |
| Prince Fielder | TEX | L | BAL | Kevin Gausman | 245 | 49 | 5 | 18 | 34 | 22 | 0 | .200 | .579 | .110 | .221 | .255 | 18.7% | 26.6% | 91.5% | $2,300 | $3,400 | $4,450 |
David Ortiz can be a copy/paste anytime he starts at home against a right-handed pitcher. Just as a reminder, Big Papi is now batting .424/.525/.899 at home against righties. If you can’t afford Ortiz, you have my blessing to pivot to Hanley Ramirez, who has hit two homers in his career against Miguel Gonzalez.
Jose Abreu has been historically amazing against the knuckleball, and according to PITCHf/x, he has been the 4th best hitter in Major League baseball against the knuckleball since he joined the Majors back in 2014. He is 2-for-5 with a homer, triple, and three RBIs throughout his career against Steven Wright.
Matt Adams has one career at-bat against John Lackey, and that one at-bat resulted in a two-run homer off of the veteran right-hander. Very good price point throughout the industry.
Adrian Gonzalez will be in play tonight thanks to his great price on both DraftKings and FanDuel. You’re going to need to get some value somewhere in your lineup if you’re rostering some of the big boys at pitcher, so why not give A-Gon a shot? He is a respectable 4-for-9 (.444 AVG) with a double against Stephen Strasburg in their previous meetings.
Prince Fielder at only $2300 on FanDuel? Sure, why not? After all, he’s a solid 4-for-8 (.500 AVG) wth a homer, lifetime, against the fireballer, Kevin Gausman.
| SECOND BASE | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Team | Bats | Opp | Opp Pitch | AB | H | HR | R | RBI | BB | SB | AVG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | LD% | Hard% | Z-Cont% | FD | DK | Aces |
| Robinson Cano | SEA | L | DET | Mike Pelfrey | 286 | 86 | 19 | 51 | 53 | 19 | 0 | .301 | .915 | .262 | .299 | .387 | 19.3% | 34.6% | 92.5% | $4,000 | $5,300 | $5,300 |
| Logan Forsythe | TB | R | CLE | Josh Tomlin | 149 | 45 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 16 | 4 | .302 | .881 | .201 | .367 | .378 | 25.4% | 38.6% | 82.5% | $3,000 | $3,800 | $4,600 |
| Howie Kendrick | LAD | R | WSH | Stephen Strasburg | 187 | 45 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 17 | 6 | .241 | .622 | .080 | .275 | .274 | 18.6% | 32.1% | 89.5% | $2,500 | $2,600 | $4,100 |
| Josh Harrison | PIT | R | SF | Madison Bumgarner | 240 | 72 | 3 | 28 | 32 | 10 | 12 | .300 | .732 | .104 | .333 | .316 | 22.7% | 29.4% | 83.3% | $2,200 | $2,600 | $4,650 |
Robinson Cano when going up against the brutal Mike Pelfrey may be like taking candy from a baby. The Mariners are a favorite tonight in a game where Vegas set an O/U of 10. Cano has been rock solid lately, going 16-for-48 (.333 AVG) with three homers, seven runs, and five RBIs.
Logan Forsythe is a pretty safe play tonight, and especially so on FanDuel at just $3000. He is now 10-for-29 (.345 AVG) with a homer, triple, and double with four runs, two walks, and a stolen base over his last six games.
Howie Kendrick has come out of his shell and is now one of the hotter Dodgers in the lineup (sorry, “hottest” belongs to Justin Turner). Kendrick is in the middle of a 6-game hitting streak, where he has gone 8-for-18 (.444 AVG) with a homer, double, three walks, six runs, two RBIs, and a stolen base.
Josh Harrison is an exceptional value tonight going up against Madison Bumgarner. He is dirt cheap throughout the industry, but has a good history against MadBum, going 4-for-7 (.571 AVG) with a home run.
| THIRD BASE | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Team | Bats | Opp | Opp Pitch | AB | H | HR | R | RBI | BB | SB | AVG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | LD% | Hard% | Z-Cont% | FD | DK | Aces |
| Nick Castellanos | DET | R | SEA | Nate Karns | 252 | 75 | 13 | 34 | 39 | 14 | 1 | .298 | .856 | .226 | .356 | .360 | 25.1% | 35.8% | 84.3% | $3,600 | $4,000 | $4,600 |
| Travis Shaw | BOS | L | CHW | Miguel Gonzalez | 251 | 68 | 7 | 37 | 37 | 23 | 3 | .271 | .790 | .179 | .343 | .339 | 20.1% | 34.1% | 84.0% | $3,100 | $3,800 | $4,900 |
| Jefry Marte | LAA | R | HOU | Doug Fister | 50 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | .320 | .986 | .320 | .387 | .414 | 28.6% | 51.4% | 84.1% | $2,400 | $2,900 | $3,900 |
| Jung-Ho Kang | PIT | R | SF | Madison Bumgarner | 119 | 34 | 9 | 14 | 26 | 7 | 1 | .286 | .931 | .294 | .291 | .390 | 22.1% | 46.3% | 89.3% | $2,300 | $3,300 | $4,900 |
Nick Castellanos is the best hitter on the Tigers roster against the knuckle curve ball, which is Nathan Karns’s bread and butter. Prior to yesterday’s rough 0-for-5 outing, Nick has been hit or miss, going 9-for-35 (.257 AVG) with two homers, six runs, and four RBI. Consider him more of a GPP play.
Travis Shaw has reached base safely in 10 of his 22 plate appearances in this current homestand. He has excelled at home this season and his recent struggles definitely have him at a reasonable price tonight. He may be one of the cheaper ways to get exposure to the Red Sox tonight.
Jefry Marte will get extra consideration tonight given the fact that we are all looking for value. He has good upside for someone who is below $3000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Still, I wouldn’t touch him if he plays in the outfield, mainly because he has been subbed for defensive purposes every single game he has played out there. If he plays first, third, or DH, feel free to give him a shot against Fister.
Jung-Ho Kang has cooled off a bit, but is only $2300 tonight on FanDuel as he matches up against Madison Bumgarner of the Giants. He has batted .333/.417/.476 this season at home, so I like his chances to reach value tonight.
| SHORTSTOP | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Team | Bats | Opp | Opp Pitch | AB | H | HR | R | RBI | BB | SB | AVG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | LD% | Hard% | Z-Cont% | FD | DK | Aces |
| Francisco Lindor | CLE | S | TB | Drew Smyly | 260 | 80 | 7 | 42 | 35 | 26 | 11 | .308 | .816 | .138 | .335 | .351 | 22.2% | 24.3% | 89.6% | $3,900 | $4,600 | $4,900 |
| Javier Baez | CHC | R | STL | Jaime Garcia | 146 | 39 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 4 | .267 | .750 | .178 | .306 | .320 | 16.8% | 29.0% | 82.6% | $2,900 | $3,800 | $4,050 |
| Trevor Story | COL | R | MIA | Paul Clemens | 266 | 70 | 17 | 39 | 45 | 21 | 4 | .263 | .862 | .278 | .349 | .362 | 22.6% | 43.9% | 82.2% | $2,800 | $4,700 | $5,350 |
| Ketel Marte | SEA | S | DET | Mike Pelfrey | 205 | 54 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 8 | .263 | .638 | .083 | .319 | .277 | 23.9% | 22.6% | 86.7% | $2,500 | $3,700 | $3,900 |
Francisco Lindor is batting .337/.376/.477 this season against left-handed pitching. He is a little pricey, but provides some exposure to the Indians who face Drew Smyly, who has allowed eight homers over his last five games.
Javier Baez excels against left-handed pitching, but is even better at home against southpaws. He is batting a ridiculous .526/.609/1.000 this season at home against lefties, and is a pretty reasonable price across the industry.
Trevor Story predominately has my attention tonight on FanDuel where he is only $2800. I definitely would have preferred if he faced Justin Nicolino, who has given up a pitiful line of .337/.385/.483 this season against right-handed hitting, but instead, he’ll face Paul Clemens, who has given up a career 5.08 xFIP over 98 innings pitched in the Majors.
Ketel Marte is probably a little over priced on DraftKings but he is only $2500 on FanDuel tonight. There are going to be a lot of runs scored in Detroit tonight, and playing Marte can absolutely help you get some cheap exposure to that game. While there weren’t necessarily any fireworks, Marte did go 3-for-3 against Pelfrey in their previous meeting.
| OUTFIELD | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Team | Bats | Opp | Opp Pitch | AB | H | HR | R | RBI | BB | SB | AVG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | LD% | Hard% | Z-Cont% | FD | DK | Aces |
| Carlos Gonzalez | COL | L | MIA | Paul Clemens | 259 | 81 | 15 | 46 | 37 | 18 | 1 | .313 | .913 | .243 | .369 | .384 | 20.2% | 33.0% | 81.2% | $4,000 | $3,800 | $5,500 |
| Rajai Davis | CLE | R | TB | Drew Smyly | 217 | 57 | 7 | 35 | 26 | 20 | 20 | .263 | .753 | .157 | .329 | .328 | 17.7% | 28.3% | 84.8% | $3,700 | $4,400 | $4,550 |
| Mark Trumbo | BAL | R | TEX | Derek Holland | 270 | 75 | 20 | 38 | 51 | 18 | 1 | .278 | .879 | .274 | .320 | .372 | 18.8% | 36.5% | 81.2% | $3,600 | $4,500 | $5,600 |
| Kole Calhoun | LAA | L | HOU | Doug Fister | 257 | 74 | 9 | 42 | 38 | 29 | 1 | .288 | .818 | .167 | .330 | .354 | 25.4% | 33.0% | 85.5% | $3,500 | $3,900 | $4,650 |
| Marcell Ozuna | MIA | R | COL | Jorge De La Rosa | 257 | 82 | 13 | 42 | 41 | 22 | 0 | .319 | .917 | .226 | .365 | .388 | 19.3% | 38.1% | 87.5% | $3,400 | $4,800 | $4,500 |
| Leonys Martin | SEA | L | DET | Mike Pelfrey | 176 | 45 | 10 | 24 | 23 | 19 | 9 | .256 | .789 | .205 | .299 | .339 | 15.1% | 35.7% | 81.0% | $3,400 | $4,200 | $4,450 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | L | MIA | Paul Clemens | 214 | 61 | 7 | 36 | 30 | 21 | 6 | .285 | .809 | .173 | .309 | .349 | 27.4% | 34.2% | 91.3% | $3,400 | $4,400 | $5,300 |
| Matt Holliday | STL | R | CHC | John Lackey | 226 | 58 | 12 | 30 | 38 | 22 | 0 | .257 | .810 | .221 | .263 | .346 | 13.9% | 39.0% | 92.2% | $3,100 | $3,100 | $4,600 |
| Nomar Mazara | TEX | L | BAL | Kevin Gausman | 239 | 70 | 11 | 29 | 30 | 17 | 0 | .293 | .789 | .159 | .312 | .338 | 26.0% | 25.0% | 92.1% | $2,800 | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| Andrew McCutchen | PIT | R | SF | Madison Bumgarner | 267 | 65 | 10 | 39 | 28 | 29 | 2 | .243 | .734 | .169 | .301 | .317 | 22.8% | 34.2% | 81.7% | $2,700 | $3,000 | $4,900 |
| Jayson Werth | WSH | R | LAD | Clayton Kershaw | 228 | 57 | 10 | 35 | 37 | 23 | 1 | .250 | .747 | .180 | .290 | .322 | 16.3% | 39.5% | 86.5% | $2,400 | $3,100 | $4,650 |
| Steven Moya | DET | L | SEA | Nate Karns | 45 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .311 | .859 | .222 | .419 | .362 | 31.3% | 40.6% | 88.6% | $2,300 | $2,400 | $3,300 |
| Daniel Nava | LAA | L | HOU | Doug Fister | 49 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | .224 | .589 | .082 | .263 | .264 | 25.6% | 35.9% | 91.8% | $2,000 | $2,800 | $3,400 |
Carlos Gonzalez at UNDER $4000 on DraftKings against a career minor league right-hander in Paul Clemens. Sign me up every day of the week.
Rajai Davis has been accumulating points left and right thanks to his ability to use his speed on the base paths. Davis has a 4-game hitting streak, going 7-for-15 (.467 AVG) with a homer, two doubles, five runs, and most importantly, five stolen bases. He has even homered against Drew Smyly in the past.
Mark Trumbo happens to be in the middle of a slump right now, so I’m a little surprised he’s still quite pricey, but he gets a great matchup against Derek Holland, who he has hit .311/.354/.711 against with five home runs in 48 career plate appearances. Probably avoiding him in cash, but I like him a lot in GPPs.
Kole Calhoun has reached base safely in each of his three previous plate appearances against Doug Fister, and has even homered off of him. He has excelled away from Angel Stadium this season, killing it to the tune of .347/.411/.565 with six of his nine home runs. He gets a huge park boost at Minute Maid Park tonight, so I really like his chances to do some damage.
Marcell Ozuna is too expensive to play outside of GPPs on DraftKings, but remains a reasonable price on FanDuel, and a bargain on Aces. He hit a huge 3-run homer to break open the game yesterday, and has homered against Jorge De La Rosa in the past.
Leonys Martin will likely be back in the leadoff spot for the Mariners. He hasn’t been able to recapture the run of his life, which took place prior to his DL stint a few weeks back. Still, over his last six games, he has gone 7-for-23 (.304 AVG) with a homer, double, and a stolen base. And as a reminder, Mike Pelfrey has given up a line of .336/.401/.503 against lefties this season.
Charlie Blackmon can be part of a Rockies GPP stack on all sites, but I prefer him on FanDuel where he is reasonably priced at $3400. Again, Paul Clemens isn’t too good, and I think it could be a good way to get some exposure to some Rockies bats.
Matt Holliday is more of a DraftKings play tonight at just $3100 (more of a value there even though he’s the same price on FanDuel). He homered yesterday against Martin Perez of the Rangers, and has hit his home runs in bunches this season.
Nomar Mazara will gladly return to Arlington where he has done the majority of his damage this season. While his batting average is a rough .239 on the road, he has put up a line of .351/.409/.456 at home in Arlington.
Andrew McCutchen’s price has dropped significantly over the last few weeks, but it has dropped even more due to his matchup against Madison Bumgarner tonight. Cutch has a 4-game hitting streak where he has gone 6-for-15 (.400 AVG) with a homer, double, three RBIs, and a stolen base. I know it’s difficult in the sense that he’s the third Pirate I have listed tonight in a tough matchup, but value is value, and if you’re paying for one of the top pitchers tonight like you probably should, you do need value in multiple spots in your lineup.
Jayson Werth is in play on both DraftKings and FanDuel thanks to DK’s anti-ace pricing, and FanDuel’s anti-Kershaw pricing. Not only is he swinging a hot bat, but he is actually one of the few players in baseball that has a decent history against Clayton Kershaw. He has batted .310/.394/.517 with two homers in 33 career plate appearances against the Dodgers ace.
Steven Moya will get plenty of playing time against righties as long as J.D. Martinez remains on the Disabled List. Moya has gone 5-for-13 (.385 AVG) with a homer and a double since being recalled from Triple A-Toledo. He’s a great source of value throughout the industry.
Daniel Nava will likely be back in the lineup tonight for the Halos against Doug Fister of the Astros. He is an absolute minimum price on FanDuel and gets a great matchup tonight against Fister, who he has crushed to the tune of .417/.500/.667 and three doubles in 14 career plate appearances against the former Tigers and Nationals right-hander.
Be sure to keep an eye on the Fantasy Alarm Daily Lineups page to confirm that your players are starting.
If you guys have any questions, you can always reach me on Twitter @kle18. Good luck!