The Angels acquired the 33 year old Yunel Escobar from the Nationals in December for RHP Trevor Gott and RHP Michael Brady. The only fantasy relevant player for 2016 is obviously Escobar. At this point Yunel’s slated to play third base though that could change of the Angels decide to bring back David Freese in which case Yunel would move to second base (that doesn’t sound very likely at this point). We all think, at least I believe we all do, that Escobar will see a regression in 2016. Just how significant will that pullback be is the question we will tackle in this report.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

BATTING AVERAGE

Escobar was 8th in baseball in batting average last season at .314.

The only time, in his 9-year career, that Escobar had hit .300 was in 2007 when he batted .326 over 319 at-bats.

Escobar has hit .281 for his career.

From 2012-14 he hit .253, .256 and .258, remarkably poor but remarkably similar.

For his career Escobar has a .306 BABIP. From 2012-14 his BABIP was between .273 and .282. Poor, below average at least, but remarkably similar. So where did the .347 mark he posted last season coming from? Good question. That was a career best in a season of 350 at-bats by the way. The mark had never been over .317 previously. It was a boost that he’s unlikely to hold on to.

For his career Escobar has a 19.3 percent line drive rate. That’s below the league average of 20 percent. Though he posted a mark of 20.0 percent in 2014, the previous five years he failed to reach that mark. So last season, of course, he went out and posted a mark of 22.3 percent. What makes the 22.3 percent mark even less tenable than at first blush is the fact that his hard hit ball rate of 27.8 percent last season was a tenth below his career average of 27.9 percent. He also pulled the ball at a rate of 37.6 percent, down from his 40.3 percent mark in ’14, and just slightly above his 35.2 percent career rate.

His walk rate was 7.6 percent last season. His career mark is 8.8 percent though the walk rate last season was a 3-year low.

Escobar posted an 11.8 percent strikeout rate last season. That was the fourth time in five years that the mark was in the 11 percent range and for his career the mark is 11.3 percent.

There is obviously little here to support another .314 average. Moreover, there is little to suggest that he will hit .300 again. Yunel has hit .288 five times in nine years, so it’s not a certainty that he will automatically return to the .250 hitter he was 2012-14. There’s also no reason to expect another .300 run. The good news is that he doesn’t have huge splits as he hit has hit .284 against lefties and .279 against righties for his career.

POWER

There is none to speak of.

He’s hit double-digit homers three times, but he’s failed to hit 10 big flies each of the last four seasons. Only once in the last four seasons has he posted a .370 SLG. That’s a pathetic number. He hasn’t reached that SLG mark in seventy five percent of the last four seasons. His career mark of .385 speaks to his lack of pop. The guy doesn’t even have a single season with 28 doubles. There’s nothing to see here.

SPEED

In nine seasons Escobar has never stolen more than six bags.

Do I need to write more?

RUNS

He’s never scored 90 runs. Lots of guys don’t do that though so it’s hardly a deathblow.

He’s scored 70 runs just four times in nine seasons.

That’s not great.

Per 150 games he’s averaged 71 runs scored. Ho-hum.

That number isn’t a lock in 2016 either. Not only does history suggest that, but there’s also the fact that in three of four seasons Escobar has failed to post a .333 OBP. He did post a mark of .375 last season, just two points off his career best. But look at the AVG to OBP gap. There was a .061 point unpick in OBP over AVG for Escobar last seasons. For his career that mark is .069. Escobar was the same guy as always getting on base. He just got on base more because he produced more hits.

RUNS BATTED IN

He’s had 60 RBI twice in his career. The last time he hit that number was 2009.

Three of the last five years he’s had 51-56 RBI so at least he’s consistent. He’s just consistently blah is all. 

BATTING ORDER

It really depends where he suits up - at the top versus the bottom. You lose roughly 15-20 plate appearances per spot in the batting order, and given that he doesn't have a big game by any objective matter, he desperately needs to hit near the top of the lineup so that he can pile up the at-bats so he can produce in the counting categories.

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Escobar is who he is – A guy who won’t steal bases or drive the ball into the seats. He’s also run and RBI challenged really limiting him to being a 1-category bat. Given that his one skill in the fantasy game – producing batting average – is spotty at best, it’s pretty obvious that Escobar shouldn’t be a target this season.

10-team Mixed: As only third base eligible there’s no reason to draft Escobar in this format.

12-team Mixed: I can’t say that taking him in the reserve rounds is a mistake, but I know that I won’t be doing that.

15-team Mixed: He just does so little in the hitting categories. Per 162 games he’s posting a .281-10-60-77-4 line for his career. Even in a league this deep, that isn’t enough to make him a corner infield starter. Without qualifying at second base allowing him to suit up in the middle infield, there’s no way to look at Yunel as anything other than a reserve round, or injury, add.

AL-Only: He has a full-time role. He’s pretty stable. Expecting the batting average regression still allows Escobar to remain viable given the depth of this league. Only roster if cheap. There are numerous option for third base that could end up out-producing Escobar.

To see where Escobar ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).