From Year One to Year Two
Contributed By Kyle Elfrink
There is a very good chance that 2015 will go down as one of the more historic rookie seasons in baseball. We were given clear warning that such a wave was about to hit, but over the course of so many hyped prospects, hyped debuts and hyped single-week efforts, many were numb to the idea that a slew of rookies could all be successful at the same time. Well, that happened last year.
Players like Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant seem nearly generational. A much-needed jolt of electricity and skill came to the shortstop position. And, to continue a trend, such a load of young pitching ascended up the ladder that some are starting to wonder if the old adage of “You can never have enough pitching” might eventually be put out to pasture.
Here’s a look at 21 (there could have been 30 or more) of the best from a season ago and where they might go from here.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
2015 Numbers – .279 BA, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 52 R, 14 SB, .345/.512/.857 in 99 games
There is probably no other player in baseball who drums up more anticipation for the future than Correa. The concoction of youth (just 21 entering 2016), potential, current production and position make Houston’s young star a fantasy centerpiece for owners everywhere. Correa will be trying to overcome some concerning history though. Only 32 of the 99 positional players to win a Rookie of the Year award, followed-up with a better WAR in their sophomore season. But, of course, not all of those 99 positional ROYs were Correa. Outside of the surprising spike in his home run mark, Correa proved to be the guy everyone thought he would (eventually) become.
For his second go-round, he should continue to sport a strong speed-power combo, although his sky-high HR/FB ratio of last summer (over 24 percent) should recede. That means that even with an extra 45-50 games, Correa could come in with a similar number of home runs. On the bright side, his average figures to push higher as he lifts his first-year BABIP (.296 in ’15) to his usual minor league standards. That’s definitely possible because he sprays the ball all over the field with a good assortment of grounders and liners. All in all, Correa is one of the top fantasy ballplayers in all the land for 2016.
Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
2015 Numbers – .313 BA, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 50 R, 12 SB, .353/.482/.835 in 99 games
Covering just as many games, playing the same position, and earning just three more at-bats, Lindor is likely to be forever compared to his fellow 2015 rookie, Correa. Comparisons regarding the respective value to their teams will probably be fair. Conversely, comparisons from a fantasy-perspective likely won’t hold up as well. That said, Lindor deserves credit for what he did accomplish last season. Some prognosticators thought he might never reach the mid-teen’s in home runs, but he nearly did that in his first rodeo.
Another check mark in his column is that Lindor started quite slow (near the Mendoza line after 19 MLB games), before toppling the early struggles and streaking to the finish line. His final 80 games found him hammering out a near .340 average. The overall offensive game was impressive with five-category production. But things probably came too easily for Lindor. The average should take pullback, as will the sky-high .353 BABIP. In fact, with 150 games in 2016, we might see some of those above marks ascend just a tad, while the batting mark slips. That will probably register as a disappointment in some quarters, but even with a dip in his overall efficiency Lindor would still be an upper-echelon fantasy shortstop.
Miguel Sano, 3B/DH, Minnesota Twins
2015 Numbers –.269 BA, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 46 R, 1 SB, .385/.530/.916 in 80 games
Sano arrived on the scene with a whisper of the hype that heralded the arrival of Kris Bryant … but he was almost as good. In fact, if you gave him the same 151 games played that the North Sider got, you might have had a superior rookie season from the Twins youngster. Sano doesn’t mind going on a fishing expedition for the long ball. He has swings aplenty (41 percent of all pitches), hits a load of fly balls (42 percent of his balls in play), and whiffs in the extreme (over 35 percent). Nowadays, though, that’s just the cost of doing business.
A concern moving into this season is that Sano will become even more power hungry, crave 30 moon shots, and totally give up his impressive 16 percent walk percentage. Beyond that, the biggest stumbling block he’ll need to overcome in Year Two is an inevitable fall in his near .400 BABIP of a year ago. His average could certainly fall .020 points, but you can survive that if the power and RBI numbers keep climbing. And, finally, worth noting … he’s expected to spend a lot more time in the outfield than at the hot corner in 2016.
Billy Burns, OF, Oakland Athletics
2015 Numbers – .294 BA, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 70 R, 26 SB, .334/.392/.726 in 125 games
Last October, we witnessed the national media’s unending fawning of Alcides Escobar’s propensity to swing at the first pitch in at-bat after at-bat. Well, Burns did that his entire rookie season! Heck, he also had more success hitting .470 with an OPS over 1.000 on 0-0 pitches. He started 118 games and put the ball in play on the first pitch 118 different times … so, yeah, in every game he was up there to hack. That aggressiveness speaks to his entire profile. Burns is absolute energy as soon as the final notes of the National Anthem are played. He pushes the envelope on the base paths, is pure hustle for nine innings, and provides a good outfield glove, to boot.
Frankly, Burns’ level of help in all five-categories is what Billy Hamilton is still hoping to become. Burns will lead off again for Oakland, but he doesn’t offer much upside beyond last years’ marks. In fact, his wimpy hard-hit percentage (13.6 percent) was the lowest in all of baseball by four percentage points. Also, he needs to walk more (26 times in 2015) or the bottom could fall out in 2016 on his runs and steal totals.
Carlos Rodon, SP, Chicago White Sox
2015 Numbers – 9 wins, 3.75 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 139 Ks (9.0/9) in 26 games (23 starts) covering 139.1 innings
Rodon’s arrival in a late-April callup was a relative surprise. Most had figured the Sox would make use of another half-season in the minors before bringing up their top prospect. Then, another slight surprise. After a few appearances in relief, he shifted exclusively to the rotation rolling up 23 starts. The future, as they say, was now. However, that present/future was a little maddening. There were moments of pure dominance (more than a quarter of his starts ended with at least eight punch outs), but just as many moments of pure misfires (another quarter where he left early because of a high pitch count or too many free passes).
Still, as mid-summer gave way to late-summer, Rodon became one of the top American League starters. Over the final six weeks he fired eight consecutive quality starts. He covered nearly 55 innings in the streak, limited his walks (3.5 per nine), got whiffs (just under one per inning), and fashioned a superior 1.81 ERA. So, yeah, he can be an upper-echelon guy at this level. There’s still ground to be covered for full emergence and his immense leap in innings pitched from one year to the next is a red a flag (nearly 150 total innings in ’15 versus less than 25 as a pro in ’14), but Rodon is an exciting arm who’s trending upwards and ready to offer a big lift in the middle of your fantasy rotation. Overall, he’s in a similar position to where Danny Salazar was a season ago.
Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
2015 Numbers – .274 BA, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 47 R, 4 SB, .319/.392/.712 in 84 games
Young backstops are rarely where you turn for fantasy production. And, for the first month-plus of Swihart’s big league career, he appeared overmatched. His K-rate was extreme, his power was nowhere to be found, and his average had settled to a Jason LaRue-like level. Then, something clicked. From early-June forward, Swihart became a bottom-of-the-order threat posting an average over .300 and an OPS closing in on .800. He was “lucky” in that time (a .397 BABIP), but he showed some lumber skills. And, again, when you’re a 23-year, first-year catcher, in a losing situation, that comes out as an overall win.
All in all, Swihart is “OK” defensively and “a little-better-than-most” offensively. He should start over 120 games for Boston in 2016 (as a switch-hitter he was a non-factor against lefties) which is a key component for any catcher you might want on your squad. If you keep expectations as “Average across-the-board … for a catcher,” then your expectations should be met.
Luis Severino, SP, New York Yankees
2015 Numbers – 5 wins, 2.89 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 56 Ks (8.1/9) in 11 starts covering 62.1 innings
The Yankees are not considered a “build from within” kind of franchise, but Severino is at the front end of an organizational game plan that should start to take shape over the coming seasons. Have no doubt that the Pin Stripers will still go out and spend, but their plan also calls for a strong mix of home grown talent. Severino probably isn’t a frontline-hurler-to-be, but he does possess the talents that make for a key rotational piece … a very good 1-2 punch (fastball-change), a developing third pitch (slider), and guts. He will challenge hitters and he showed that consistently in his late-season chances.
A glance at his game log will show that New York did a fine job of limiting his exposure, not letting him go more than six innings until his final start of the season. On the negative side of things, he had some home run issues (nine in 62.1 innings), has been hammered by scouts for refusing to his lower half, and there’s the off-chance that he could be ticketed for the bullpen in future seasons. For now, though, with New York failing to add impact starters in the offseason, Severino must open in the rotation and be a nice backend fantasy starter.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
2015 Numbers – .209 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 16 R, 2 SB, .250/.356/.576 in 46 games
Buxton’s introduction to the fantasy world was a huge letdown. While other freshmen were lacing the ball around the diamond or racking up dominant frames, the supposed “top prospect in the game,” struggled mightily. Minnesota didn’t necessarily rush him to the 25-man roster, but they did call him up before a full load of seasoning. Understand that he had missed nearly all of 2013 with injury and had about two weeks at Triple-A before joining the Twins’ roster in May. He was immediately handed the starting centerfielder’s job and, just as immediately, he struggled. His first 11 appearances were all in the starting lineup and they all looked rough as he managed just seven safeties in 27 at-bats, while also striking out 15 times.
A thumb injury then popped up, taking him out of the lineup and taking some heat off his rocky start. Upon returning in late-August, he was a tad better, but still showed little of the much-hyped skill. Minnesota was competing for the postseason at the time, so Buxton also didn’t get a whole lot of regular playing time down the stretch. Moving into 2016, he’s the favorite for the Opening Day job in center, but he has got to make more contact after whiffing in more than one-third of his rookie at-bats. If he were a 30-home run bat, you could swallow it, but he’s not right now and may never get there. From a five-cat fantasy perspective, the second year for Buxton offers some stolen base and runs potential, but after that, it’s a real toss-up. Eventually, he’s likely to settle in as a top-30 outfielder, but his real-life value will likely always top his fantasy worth.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs
2015 Numbers – .275 BA, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 87 R, 13 SB, .369/.488/.858 in 151 games
Perhaps the most impressive thing about Bryant is that he met expectations … and, in some respects, exceeded them. A year ago, excitement raged for his arrival and when North Side fans got their wish in mid-April, Bryant proved to be worth the hype. The round-trippers and RBI were in line with the best of hopes. But, the average that flirted with .280 all season, plus a surprising total of steals, were the eye brow lifters. There’s no doubt that he struck out too much (an NL-leading 199 times), but that’s overwhelmed by his walks (77) and his top-notch power.
His contact rate was just about the biggest concern on his expressway through the minors, so I don’t expect the approach to really change moving forward. And, as long as he continues to show power from foul line to foul line, Bryant’s constant hard-hitting way make that concern mostly a quibble. Of course, there’s also the opportunity for dual-eligibility (3B/OF) on your roster. All in all, we’ve already got a star on our hands.
Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
2015 Numbers – .280 BA, 14 HR, 50 RBI, 45 R, 1 SB, .343/.497/.840 in 80 games
Franco’s first trip through an MLB season showed many of the same features that we saw in Bryant. In fact, if he had received the same 150-plus games as Bryant, his numbers (beyond stolen bases) could have been incredibly similar to his NL counterpart. Just like Bryant, he’s also expected to be a featured part of the heart of the Phillies’ batting order.
The problem is that Philadelphia doesn’t provide much around their top asset. They started the selling last year and are in rebuild-mode for 2016. That fact shouldn’t destroy Franco’s value, but it does chip away at the possibility of a 100 RBI season. If Franco can maintain his decent-enough K-rate, he could actually be the best of Bryant-Sano-Franco trio in terms of batting average. He probably does not feature the 30-homer upside of the other two, but so many other things impress enough to make Franco still another young, upper tier asset at his position.
Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, Chicago Cubs
2015 Numbers – .246 BA, 16 HR, 43 RBI, 52 R, 3 SB, .355/.487/.842 in 69 games
Schwarber’s numbers not only entertain, but so does his roly-poly physique. He’s every beer leaguein’, soft-ball crushin’, nacho muchin’, pant size 42-wearin’ buddy that you would want to belly up with at the bar. Schwarber hit some legendary shots in the regular and post-seasons. He should have some more of those in the upcoming calendar, but there have got to be some growing pains around the bend.
Positionally, Schwarber is going to be on the move for the Cubs and he is certain to lose late-game at-bats as they protect late leads. If they could grow him as a catcher (a big if), and he still carried this kind of bat to the dish, you’d be talking about a player who is slightly better than the prime time years of Mike Napoli (and, remember, those were some nice seasons). Schwarber will always have whiffs, will always have fly balls, and will always be a good bet for the three run shot. Ratio-wise, it will be difficult for Schwarber to top the 21 percent HR/FB over a full season, but Wrigley plays small, and that’s perfect for a big man like Schwarber.
Addison Russell, SS/2B, Chicago Cubs
2015 Numbers – .242 BA, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 60 R, 4 SB, .307/.389/.696 in 142 games
When you come up in the same season as teammates like Bryant and Schwarber, you’re bound to be overlooked. Of course, it’s also easy to overlook a middle infielder who struggled to find a path to success, while manning the No. 9 spot in the batting order. But give Russell credit. He overcame some rough beginnings (an average under .230 through nearly 250 ABs) to figure things out in the late going (.259 over his final 230 at-bats while also punching out eight of his 13 HRs).
Like many of his rookie brethren, Russell had major K-numbers (going down on three strikes in over 30 percent of his at-bats), but unlike so many of his celebrated classmates, he didn’t provide much pop (a sub-.400 SLG). The good news is that the Cubs’ dugout is totally sold on Russell as an everyday player, as evidenced by their offseason flip of Starlin Castro to the Yankees. He’s going to receive every opportunity to grow and perform. He must connect with the ball more, drive it through the infield more, and cause more havoc with his speed. Russell is a strong talent, but without the power marks to rely on, he sports a dangerous floor that keeps him from being a certain up-and-comer.
Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets
2015 Numbers – .270 BA, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 30 R, 0 SB, .335/.506/.841 in 56 games
By the mid-point of last season, the Mets’ “faithful” were begging for Conforto’s call-up. The major league team’s offense was frozen and perhaps the only thing that could spark it to life would be a new face. Well, Conforto did eventually get the callup and the Mets offense did start to hustle behind a new face, but it was Yoenis Cespedes – not the rookie outfielder – that was the force behind the push.
Still, Conforto had some memorable at-bats in the second half. His bat – not any kind of speed or glove work - is what can set him apart. He’s hit at every level, going back to his collegiate days, and he profiles as a “good power/decent average” type of player. He has a starting spot (with no Michael Cuddyer to hold him back this year) versus righties … but, we’ll have to wait and see when a southpaw hits the hill. In 2015, the lefty swinger sat and received only 14 total at-bats against opposing lefties. The Mets claim that they’ll test him with more chances in 2016, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he avoids most of them and struggles to top 500 official at-bats.
Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
2015 Numbers – 6 wins, 3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 68 Ks (7.9/9) in 13 starts covering 77.2 innings
In a campaign where most everything spiraled out of control and ended up as a disaster, Nola gave the Phillies something to be happy about. The 22-year-old had a few haphazard games, but his final kick in September was a thing of beauty. He allowed one or zero earned runs in five of his last seven outings. You have to, of course, give him credit for such success, but a closer look shows that he was facing some flabby hitting competition … Atlanta (twice), San Diego, Miami, and a white-flag waving Washington team.
Nola’s K-rate probably doesn’t have much more growth in it and he still has some tricks to learn (just two professional seasons after being drafted in the summer of ’14), but Nola sports incredible command (2.2 walks per nine). He will never be a team’s ace (unless that team is, well, a 65-win Philadelphia team!), but he has two-plus offerings (fastball, curve) that should lead to decent numbers all across.
Taylor Jungmann, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
2015 Numbers – 9 wins, 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 107 Ks (8.1/9) in 21 starts covering 119.1 innings
First off, it’s pronounced “Young-men,” and not “Jung-men.” We just wanted to make sure that you avoid being “that guy” at your draft day table. With the pronunciation out of the way, what other notable facts do we have with the right-hander? Well, he was a slightly above-average prospect coming into 2015. Overall, he was inconsistent throughout the minors and had really struggled with his control.
Upon getting a call-up to help out a decimated Brewer rotation, Jungmann started out sky high and continued to post a seasonal ERA in 2.00’s for over three months. But the wheels came off in September when he got blasted in each of his final five starts (an ERA well over nine with eight bombs allowed in under 23 innings). This leads to a question… was he just tired at the end of his first MLB season or did teams know what they were getting by September and were, thus, ready to pounce on nearly all of his offerings? I actually would side with the latter. Jungmann has nothing that can be considered a plus pitch (hey, nowadays, even hitting the mid-90s with your fastball isn’t anything special), he’s still not over his control issues, and he’s in a ballpark that punishes pitchers. Jungmann should shape up as a back-of-the-fantasy-rotation arm in 2016.
Matt Duffy, 3B, San Francisco Giants
2015 Numbers – .295 BA, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 77 R, 12 SB, .334/.428/.762 in 149 games
In a year where there was no shortage of great rookie seasons, Duffy’s was hugely surprising. NO ONE could qualify him as an upper-end prospect, yet by the end of 2015, he was good enough to finish second in NL ROY voting. Notably, he was one of just 20 guys in all of baseball to hit at least .280 while going double-digits in both homers and stolen bases. Is there possibly more than that? Simply put, no.
Even an unremarkable 12 homers stands out for Duffy who never even hit 10 in three minor league seasons. His average was definitely on the higher-end of expectations, but .280 isn’t impossible with his batted ball profile. Steals can also hold. One of the larger keys to how smooth his road will be this year revolves around his spot in the Giants’ batting order. After starting out in the bottom-third, he spent most of the second half in either the two or three hole. If things go well for San Francisco this year, there’s little chance of him holding on to either spot. Perhaps Duffy proves all doubters wrong again, but overall, he features a very average skill-set that also makes for a mostly average fantasy player.
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
2015 Numbers –.337 BA, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 17 R, 2 SB, .425/.561/.986 in 27 games
“Bring him up! Bring him up! Bring him up!” Outside of the “Get Puig outta the lineup!” or the “Put Pederson on the bench!” chants, no fan-led mantra was uttered more in the summer of 2015 than the pleadings to bring up Seager. Eventually, the Dodgers admitted the obvious and finally benched the aged, Jimmy Rollins. Seager got the call-up and continued to hit the blazes out of the baseball. The overall minor league numbers are quite prolific … a .307/.368/.523 slash, that includes 62 homers and nearly 280 RBI in 390 games. And, again, this is coming from a shortstop (Are you starting to pick up on any sort of “It’s a new era”-trend with last years’ rookies, yet?).
Replicating the immense success of his first real exposure should prove challenging, though. Despite immediate success last year, Seager is still a question mark when it comes to the K/BB ratio (he swung a lot and even missed a lot which can prove dangerous over a full season) and with a bloated BABIP (.387) it appeared to be too easy. But he still has a good shot to finish in the upper echelon of his position because his good average/solid power/decent speed/everyday player profile in 2016.
Odubel Herrera, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
2015 Numbers – .297 BA, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 64 R, 16 SB, .344/.418/.762 in 147 games
A Rule 5 selection in the offseason, Herrera was a massive surprise for the Phillies and for fantasy players. On offense, he might have been the best overall player for Philadelphia. Honestly, though, that says more about the seven hitters around Herrera than it may say about Herrera, himself. But numbers are numbers and Herrera’s were good enough to earn his stripes as a full-year starting option for fantasy owners. I say “option” because it’s critical to realize that Herrera played only one position last year … outfield.
He actually was most valuable in 2015 because he came into the season with multi-positional eligibility (with a huge “SS” or “2B” next to his name in many leagues), but that is gone for 2016. The 23-year-old managed a full season in the bigs and showed plenty of resilience, rescuing himself from a batting mark in the .240s to finish the year with a push. He’ll be given another full go-round for this year and unless he truly crumples, he should be near 500 at-bats, yet again. There’s not much more to be found here, but perhaps some extra steals, but he still deserves a late-draft look.
Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets
2015 Numbers – 9 wins, 3.24 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 166 Ks (10.0/9) in 24 starts covering 150 innings
The Mets right-hander polished off about as fine a rookie campaign as anyone had a right to expect. “Thor” was brutally efficient in September, punching out a robust 37 hitters in under 28 innings, to help lift the Mets to the NL East title. During the final month showing, Syndergaard also provided just two free passes and that continued an impressive feature of his first year in the league. Overall, he handed out under two walks per nine innings over the entire season. That number alongside a massive 10 K/9 led to a K/BB ratio of 5.35. You don’t see that in many flame-throwers, especially rookie ones.
Syndergaard didn’t throw enough innings to qualify as a league leader in that department, but the number would have ranked as sixth best in the NL. Where his future gets quite interesting is in his pitch selection. He was fastball/curve/change all season, but then started to showcase a slider in October. Of course, next to nobody is a master of four pitches, but Syndergaard now has a new weapon to bring to the table in 2016. Something to, at the very least, keep the opposition wondering what he will throw next. Syndergaard is ticketed for many special outings in the upcoming year and he makes for an excellent ‘safe, despite the youth’ pick at your draft.
Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
2015 Numbers –.210 BA, 26 HR, 54 RBI, 67 R, 4 SB, .346/.417/.763 in 151 games
How can something so good be so incredibly ugly? Pederson was the toast of LA and of baseball at the start of his rookie season. He was hitting moon shots, he was playing good defense, and he was doing it all in a town that mints the rich and famous. Of course, it’s also a town where very many of those same “rich and famous” hit the skids and disappear. Pederson met the same agonizing fate, but his tailspin and disappearance proved legendary. Strikeouts were a major concern to anyone with a brain even during his early-season homer binge and eventually they led to his downfall.
There was a stretch from July 1 through the end of August where Pederson hit .151, whiffed 52 times, and dinked his way to three home runs … in nearly 140 at-bats! That was mostly the end of the line for him as a starter and he comes into 2016 looking to re-establish his role in the Dodgers’ outfield hierarchy. There was a silver lining to his disappointing finish. He still saw a lot of pitches in each at-bat and actually produced a solid walk percentage (16 percent). Still, even when he was on-base – and, he was on-base a lot thanks to his .346 OBP – he didn’t run. In fact, he should be embarrassed with the 4-for-11 success rate on theft attempts. Indefensible. So, yes, there’s a lot to do here. He must cut down on the homer-itis in his swing, he needs to hit more line drives, he needs to run, etc. … but Pederson still plenty of potential that could be realized … just don’t count on it being fully realized in 2016.
Stephen Piscotty, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
2015 Numbers – .305 BA, 7 HR, 39 RBI, 29 R, 2 SB, .359/.494/.853 in 63 games
Piscotty ended up playing a fairly big role in the Cardinals march to 100 victories last year. With injuries throughout (Matt Holliday, Matt Adams, Jon Jay, Randal Grichuk), the then 24-year-old came up with a load of pivotal hits while batting second, fifth, seventh, and eighth in the batting order. All of that flip-flopping should come to a close this year as the team has handed him a corner outfield spot and will slot him into a consistent batting slot once they find a home for their other hitters (Matt Carpenter and Holliday, chief among them).
As a player, Piscotty showed surprising pop with the bat and consistently made hard contact. But putting the lumber to the bat was occasionally a challenge, with the rookie whiffing in well over one-fifth of his total plate appearances. Before arriving in the majors, he made a concerted effort to lift the ball more and to add a more flat and level cut as his bat made its way through the zone. It worked for the most part, but you have to wonder how much power upside Piscotty really has. He hit just a homer for every 10 minor league games over the course of four seasons. If he sustains 90 percent of his first-year marks over the course of a full 162 games, you’ve got a definite fantasy starting outfielder.
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