Quick Summary of Today’s Top Chalkboard MLB Picks: 

The 2026 MLB season rolls into another weekend of baseball. It’s been a fun first half of the campaign with plenty of highlights, storylines, and All-Stars emerging. Let’s now dive into our Chalkboard MLB Picks Today for Saturday, July 4th. We’ll dish out a pair of MLB DFS projections to lock in as you enjoy the action. 

 

 

 

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Chalkboard Fantasy MLB Picks Today: Saturday, 7/4

Parker Messick MLB Chalkboard Fantasy Pick: Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Cleveland Guardians’ starter Parker Messick has run into a few bumps recently. However, he’s still putting together an All-Star-caliber season. The left-hander owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.06 WHIP through 17 starts. In today’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox, he has the upside to pile up strikeouts. 

The White Sox own the fifth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season at 24.9%. That number has also climbed to 26.6% over the past month. During this same span, Chicago has the league’s lowest walk rate against southpaws at just 3.7%. The matchup gives Messick a solid opportunity to avoid walks and generate strikeouts. 

As for the Guardians’ lefty, Messick has posted a 26.5% strikeout rate that ranks in the 75th MLB percentile. He’s also recorded 106 strikeouts across 101 innings pitched, while averaging 6.2 punchouts per start. Though this 6.5 strikeout line is a bit high, it’s well within reach for the matchup. Plus, Messick has six or more strikeouts in 10 of 17 starts, including seven of more Ks in four of his last 10 outings. 

Wilyer Abreu MLB Chalkboard Fantasy Pick: Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI

When considering left-on-left matchups in baseball, it typically gives a pitcher the edge. Today’s meeting between the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels, though, presents an opportunity to capitalize on some reverse splits. The numbers suggest Wilyer Abreu can produce against Sam Aldegheri in this matchup. 

Aldegheri has struggled this season, posting a 4.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the Angels. The left-hander also hit a rough patch in June, allowing five and six runs in consecutive starts. His biggest issue, interestingly, has been against left-handed hitters. In those matchups, he’s surrendered a .387 batting average and 1.099 OPS. Compare that to just a .212 BA and .612 OPS allowed to right-handed batters. 

That sets up well for Abreu, who has excelled against left-handed pitching this season. The Red Sox outfielder owns a .359 batting average and .934 OPS vs. southpaws. Meanwhile, his production has been noticeably lower against righties. Abreu is also hitting well on the road, with a .277 average and .819 OPS away from Fenway. It’s just another reason to like this spot.