And just like that, our new stolen base prop article is a rousing success. While we missed the first two days and chalked it up to research, we hit both Austin Martin and Bobby Witt yesterday, which is two bets with odds greater than +300, and after three days, we’ve got profit. Now it’s not going to be like that every night. Remember, stolen base props are a high-variance market similar to home run props, which Mark Lammey has been crushing on the regular. Now it’s still early, so there’s no need to get ahead of ourselves. The process stays exactly the same. Let’s dive into the research, and then let’s get to the MLB stolen base picks today.

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Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities, and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below, but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values. 

Also worth mentioning:

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

 

 

 

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Friday, May 15:

Favorite Bet: 

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers (+219) – The Minnesota Twins have veteran right-hander Joe Ryan on the mound, who not only struggled with an arm issue two starts ago but has also allowed the most stolen bases of any starter on today’s slate. Twins catchers, combined, have just a 17.2-percent caught stealing rating this season, and the lefty-swinging Turang has a .461 wOBA with a .459 OBP against righties this season. He’s also sitting with eight steals and an 80-percent success rate on the bases, so let’s lock him down.

Longshot Bet:

Sam Antonacci, Chicago White Sox (+426) – It’s a limited sample size in which Antonacci has just a 50-percent success rate on the bases, but there’s plenty about this match-up that I love. First off, strong sprint speed for the youngster, but it’s more about Cubs starter Edward Cabrera allowing seven steals on the season, combined with the fact that both Cubs catchers have weak caught stealing percentages. Miguel Amaya is at just 25-percent on a dozen attempts, and Carson Kelly is at just 14-percent on 21 attempts. Antonacci is a lefty with a .416 wOBA against right-handed pitching, while Cabrera is allowing lefties a .337 wOBA against him. The stars are aligning.