Thursday's MLB card brings a fresh set of matchups, and our MLB home run picks for May 14th are locked and loaded. Midweek slates have a way of sneaking up on you with some of the best value of the week - books are sometimes slower to adjust, and favorable pitching matchups don't always get the attention they deserve. We've done the digging on ballpark factors, pitcher vulnerabilities, and recent power trends to bring you our best MLB home run predictions for 5/14.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Today gives us a handful of matchups we really like for our MLB home run picks, and we've zeroed in on three names that stand out above the rest. As always, pair these with our MLB expert picks for a full picture of today's best markets beyond the long ball. Here are the headliners for our MLB home run predictions on May 14th:

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 5/14: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Before committing to any MLB home run picks on Thursday, the homework never stops. Our MLB weather report is always the first place to check - wind direction and game-time conditions at each park can swing the long ball market significantly. Beyond weather, we're looking at each pitcher's HR/FB rate, hard-hit and barrel data on the batter side, and recent power trends to make sure every MLB home run prediction below has a legitimate edge behind it.

Cal Raleigh (+282)

It’s about that time. It’s about that time to give the big dumper some love after ending his recent horrific slump. He and the Seattle Mariners just lost a heartbreaker to the AL West rival Houston Astros last night, but he gets to face Mike Burrows to bounce back. That’s great news when it comes to making the best MLB home run picks for today.

Burrows is set to come back to Earth after VASTLY overperforming in his last start. Prior to that, he had allowed 1+ homers in four of five starts, and he’s still just not a guy we trust. Even if all that wasn’t the case, Houston still has the worst bullpen in baseball in terms of both ERA and homers allowed this season (34!).

Hopefully it’s in the first inning and sweat-free, but either way, we’re starting our best MLB home run picks for today with Cal Raleigh to hit a HR (+282 at Novig).

Elly De La Cruz (+500)

Look, the Nationals vs. Reds series hasn’t connected with our guys these past two days, but if you’ve been keeping tabs on it, then you know it’s ALL about runs and the long ball. So, you know it’s going to be one of the ones we’ve targeted thus far, like JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart, or CJ Abrams, but we’ve still got a new approach for our top MLB home run picks.

With Cincinnati startingChase Burns and having the (very slightly) better bullpen, we’ll pick on Nats starter Foster Griffin and their atrocious bullpen instead. We’re doing so with none other than Elly De La Cruz. He’s hitting just a tick under .300 vs. lefties this season (Griffin is a southpaw) with half of his 10 homers coming against such pitching.

Again, Washington’s pen can allow this alter on as well, so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Elly De La Cruz to hit a HR (+500 at bet365) - this line is MUCH higher than other platforms!   

Brandon Lowe (+450)

The Rockies vs. Pirates series may not be at Coors Field, but as you’ll see, it’s been a great one for homers. With Colorado starting Chase Dollander and Pittsburgh going with an opener situation, there are targets to make on both sides. Of course, we’ve locked one in for you with our MLB home run picks, and we’re sticking with the home team.

Pittsburgh could end up giving a real starter (Mason Montgomery, a lefty) or an opener (Mlodzinski, a righty) the start, so we’ll go with the known of Chase Dollander. He’s allowed a homer in back-to-back starts, and Colorado has the worse bullpen of the two as well. Regardless, Brandon Lowe has been great more often than not.

Consider Hunter Goodman on the other side of the matchup, but we’ll continue to add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Brandon Lowe to hit a HR (+450 at Caesars).

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Our MLB home run picks never stop at three. If you're hunting for a bigger payday on Thursday's slate, here's the longshot play we're targeting today:

Back to the home of the Sacramento River Cats! This is not the biggest name in the Cardinals vs. Athletics series, but believe it or not, Church is hitting .318 vs. lefties this year (A’s are starting Jacob Lopez). He’s young and not known for his raw power, but hey, it’s our best MLB home run LONGSHOT pick for a reason!  

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Stack our MLB home run predictions together and here's what Thursday's best MLB home run parlay looks like:

Several names across the Thursday slate - three featured MLB home run picks, the longshot play, and more. Take advantage of our MLB home run picks for today, May 14th, however works best for you, and check back as lineups are confirmed closer to first pitch!