MLB Stolen Base Picks Today: Best Stolen Base Predictions For September 23rd, 2026
Talk about finishing the season strong! What a late-season run! If you haven’t checked in with the best stolen base picks today and every day, you’ve missed a hell of a run. Both picks in yesterday’s article hit – Pete Crow-Armstrong at +165 (duh!) and longshot Randy Arozarena at +441 – hit, as did yesterday’s pick in our free newsletter – Konnor Griffin (+190). That brings my end-of-season work to 19 cashed plus-money bets over my last 16 articles. It’s done amazing things to my bankroll, and I’m looking to close out the MLB regular season just as strong. Not much else to say about it – you either tailed and are loving life, or you’re sitting on the outside looking in and wishing you had jumped on board earlier. Why not let that be today? Let’s check out the stolen base prop data and see where I want to invest my money. Please, join me.
Remember, Fantasy Alarm is still your one-stop shop for all sports betting and player props. We have everything for MLB, from the stolen bases to the home runs to strikeouts to all the best bets you need to be a successful sports bettor. We are also diving into the NFL season, and don’t forget – NBA and NHL are on their way back again. Check out our Bet Tracker, which is loaded up for the day, as well as a ton of articles available to you. Let’s dive into the research and deliver the best in MLB stolen base picks today.
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Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today
Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities, and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below, but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (+185)
- Konnor Griffin, Pittsburgh Pirates (+200)
- Jake McCarthy, Colorado Rockies (+243)
- Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (+261)
- Fernando Tatis, San Diego Padres (+265)
- Henry Bolte, Athletics (+273)
- Otto Lopez, Miami Marlins (+281)
- Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians (+281)
- Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (+287)
- Jonah Cox, San Francisco Giants (+300)
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today
When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season. Keep in mind that on such a small slate and with the pitchers from which we have to choose, the data is very limited.
- Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals – 24 SB allowed
- George Kirby, Seattle Mariners – 23 SB allowed
- Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds – 23 SB allowed
- Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres – 22 SB allowed
- Kevin Gausman, Chicago Cubs – 19 SB allowed
- Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox – 17 SB allowed
- Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks – 15 SB allowed
Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases
The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.
- Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals – 3% CS (36 att)
- Austin Hedges, Cleveland Guardians – 6% CS (34 att)
- Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves – 8% CS (36 att)
- Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins – 9% CS (43 att)
- Bo Naylor, C Milwaukee Brewers – 11% CS (18 att)
- Victor Caratini, Minnesota Twins – 12% CS (51 att)
- Brett Severn, Athletics – 13% CS (16 att)
- James McCann, Arizona Diamondbacks – 13% CS (38 att)
- Austin Wynns, Texas Rangers – 13% CS (23 att)
- Endy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates – 13% CS (23 att)
- James McCann, Arizona Diamondbacks – 13% CS (38 att)
- Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays – 13% CS (75 att)
- Connor Wong, Boston Red Sox – 13% CS (45 att)
- Hunter Feduccia, Los Angeles Dodgers- 13% CS (52 att)
Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:
Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. We’ve got an interesting group of notable base-stealers at shorter odds, so here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Wednesday, September 23:
Favorite Bets:
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (+287) – There’s a big strikeout risk here with southpaw Matthew Liberatore on the mound, but Cruz has hit safely in five of his last six games with one stolen base in that span and still owns a .373 OBP (.369 wOBA) against lefties this season. Neither rookie Leo Bernal nor Ivan Herrera has any skills to throw out baserunners, so let’s lean into a bit of risk here and look for the Cruz Missile to swipe a bag for us today.
Bobby Witt Kansas City Royals (+314) – With eight hits and one stolen base over his last four games, why not grab Witt with these kinds of odds? The guy is matching up against a tomato can of a righty in Erick Fedde, so I’m not even concerned about catcher Kyle Teel’s ability to throw out baserunners. A 31-percent caught-stealing rate is slightly above average, so what is that – a C+? We’ll side with Witt today.
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