Friday night baseball is some of the best baseball of the week, and our MLB home run picks for today, May 15th, are built for it. Weekend openers tend to bring expanded rotations, favorable wind conditions at several ballparks, and some of the most motivated lineups of the week - all of which add up to real long ball opportunity. We've gone through the slate top to bottom to bring you the best MLB home run predictions for today.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Friday's expanded slate gives us more matchups to dig into for our MLB home run picks, and we've identified three targets that stand above the rest tonight. Don't forget to also check our MLB expert picks for additional markets beyond the long ball. Here are the names headlining our MLB home run predictions for May 15th:

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 5/15: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Friday night conditions at several parks can shift dramatically between afternoon and first pitch, so our MLB weather report is essential reading before locking in any MLB home run picks tonight. Beyond weather, we're looking at each pitcher's fly-ball tendencies, HR/FB rates, batter exit velocity data, and recent power trends to make sure every one of our MLB home run predictions for today has a genuine edge behind it.

Mickey Moniak (+323)

The Colorado Rockies head back home to Coors Field, so how could there be a better spot for us to begin with some Friday night fireworks? They actually had several homers featured in their road series against the Pittsburgh Pirates this week, and now conditions are even better. Also factoring into our MLB home run picks is Merrill Kelly.

The Arizona Diamondbacks starter has been getting shelled more often than not, leading to a 17.1% home run to fly ball ratio. The righty has the potential to get guys to swing and miss, but right now, his underlying metrics are NOT suggesting that positive regression is on the horizon. That’s great news for a great lefty slugger.

Mickey’s got 12 dingers on the year, so let’s start our best MLB home run picks for today with Mickey Moniak to hit a HR (+323 at Novig).

Rafael Devers (+280)

While the Athletics start up a new series after one against the St. Louis Cardinals, they’re staying in Sacramento. That means you know that we have to bring up the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats stadium, but this is even more about Aaron Civale. With one of the worst average exit velocities, he’s helping us with top MLB home run picks today.

It means that we’re going to focus on the opposition, which today is the San Francisco Giants. It also means that another lefty is in our sights, given the splits from the righty Civale. San Fran has a few southpaws at the top of their lineup, but the most powerful one is the former Boston Red Sox first baseman. So, we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Rafael Devers to hit a HR (+280 at Caesars).

Pete Alonso (+365)

It may not be Coors Field, but National Stadium is still a strong hitter’s ballpark. Even if it wasn’t, you’ve seen us pick on Washington's terrible bullpen. That’s great news for the visiting Baltimore Orioles, who actually just won their midweek series against the New York Yankees. As for our best MLB home run picks for today, the target won’t surprise you.

We also like Gunnar Henderson here as a lefty leadoff man, but truthfully, a few O’s may go deep tonight. Washington starter Zack Littell was recently part of that aforementioned bullpen, which is enough in itself. If it’s not enough for you, he’s got a 22.2% HR/FB ratio! That’s nearly the absolute worst in baseball, so we’re adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Pete Alonso to hit a HR (+365 at BetMGM). 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Friday nights are made for big payouts, and we've got a longshot MLB home run pick with serious upside on tonight's slate:

We didn’t target Rangers vs. Astros above, but it’s still a matchup to monitor. Earlier in the game, you could consider adding to our top MLB home run picks with a Houston hitter, but once bullpens come in, it’ll be all about Texas. That’s why we see more value in the road team. Our best MLB home run longshot pick for today provides a huge potential payout!
 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Stack our three featured MLB home run picks together or consider the approach below for tonight's best parlay:

Over a handful of names to root for across Friday night's slate - three featured MLB home run picks, the longshot play, and the ones above. Enjoy our best MLB home run picks for today and check back for any lineup updates closer to first pitch!