Thursdays during the baseball season may be a slower day, but there is no better way to get ready for a monster weekend ahead than with our best MLB home run picks. After all, we just made it three straight winning days thanks to Julio Rodriguez last night! So, we can certainly make something happen even if there are only nine games to enjoy. In fact, the majority of the slate is featured in the afternoon, so we need to lock in the best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

The slate also features guys that we like for other markets other than MLB home run picks, such as Max Fried and Jacob deGrom, so make sure you also check out our MLB expert picks. We know that those guys can rack up K’s, and if you also just like simple game markets, you’ll often find those there as well. Of course, if all you’re looking for are MLB home run predictions, then enjoy more targets than the ones below with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/13: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We consider just about everything when it comes to providing you with the best MLB home run picks, and the first of the factors is our very own MLB weather report. It’s not just Coors Field that matters - humidity and other weather conditions affect homers as well. Once we cover that, it’s onto the day’s starting pitchers.

After checking out their righty/lefty splits, pitch type mix, expected values, underlying metrics, and everything else under the Sun, it’s onto how bullpens have been performing. Of course, we then have to break down the hitters themselves, as they’re actually putting bat on ball to cash our MLB home run picks. You’ll see several of the metrics we analyze on that front in our breakdowns below!  

Jackson Chourio (+388)

Admittedly, we really do not love this slate for homers at all. Thinking about it further, it may be the worst one we can remember this season. However, the first one that jumped out at us after breaking things down was actually in the final game of the night. It’s where we’ll see the Milwaukee Brewers in LA, and Dodger Stadium is quite friendly to MLB home run picks.

LA starter Roki Sasaki can also be, even if he can also have a ceiling of dominant starts. If you’re feeling a lefty instead, we also like Jake Bauers here, but it’s actually righties with the better slugging in each of Sasaki’s two MLB seasons. That’s great news for Milwaukee’s left fielder, who has closer splits than most.

He also has incredible numbers in terms of expected slugging, average exit velocity, barrel rate AND hard-hit rate, so we ride with Jackson Chourio hitting a HR (+388 at Courtside) with our best MLB home run picks for today!

Elly De La Cruz (+434)

We saw Miguel Vargas come through for us two nights ago, and the Chicago White Sox handled business with ease last night. Well, we’ve got the Cincinnati Reds at least doing something (more than a goose egg). Unlike Sean Burke, we aren’t massive fans of Davis Martin, which means that we ARE fans of MLB home run picks against him.

We’re not saying that he’s a guy who deserves to be DFA'd, but his average hard-hit rate of 44.2% is great for the Cincinnati lineup. Speaking of hard-hit rates, there is perhaps nothing that Elly is known for. His 93rd percentile hard-hit rate of 51.1% has led to a 98th percentile average exit velocity of 93.8%, so what’s not to love?

Let’s see the top-end bat speed go to work and cash in another one of our best MLB home run picks with Elly De La Cruz hitting a HR (+434 at DraftKings).

Luis Garcia, Jr. (+395)

Ok, we’re going to say this before anything - this has Ben Rice written all over it because it’s truly a toss-up between the two first basemen in the Bronx for us. Thankfully, the game being in the Bronx benefits both lefties and their elite home run metrics. They’re both ideal for MLB home run picks from expected slugging, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, AND barrel rate.

The two are going against Logan Gilbert, so while that may scare some away, he’s still allowed 19 homers this season, including 11 to lefties. Again, we won’t act as though it’s a perfect matchup, and the decision-maker for Garcia over Rice is simply his greater success vs. righty sliders (.382 with three homers > .208 with one homer).

You can already guess that you’ll be seeing Ben Rice’s name shortly, but as for our top three MLB home run picks, we’re locking in Luis Garcia, Jr. hitting a HR (+395 at Ceesars).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

As if getting a FREE bonus pick wasn’t an exciting enough addition, let’s continue adding to our top MLB home run picks today with our favorite longshot option.

It’s back to the Brewers bats here, and again Sasaki has the floor we can capitalize on, and this is another righty. A 41.9% hard-hit rate is fantastic for a guy with this price, and let’s not forget that we just saw Hunter Feduccia homer here last night! He’s got even longer odds than our MLB home run longshot pick, so let’s cash in! 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Ready for another addition? Below is our favorite for-fun parlay to attack the slate and continue adding to our best MLB home run picks for today.

If you don’t want to worry about needing each of those to hit, you can always consider one of those names as a standalone pick as well. You can also just create your own for-fun parlay using our top three MLB home run picks. Either way, you have all kinds of ways to enjoy today’s slate!