After a five-game slate, there is no better way to get a weekend started than with some 9/11 MLB home run picks. It’s a special weekend without a doubt, and not just because it’s the first one with NFL action. So, let’s truly make the most of it with some positive excitement and value to boot. We even have a classic afternoon Wrigley Field game, so there is a ton to break down. Leave it to us so that you can simply lock in the top MLB home run predictions for today!

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

There are polarizing pitching matchups like Yusei Kikuchi vs. Cade Cavalli as well as the intrigue of Aaron Nola vs. Chris Sale, so there are far more markets than just MLB home run picks that have value today. That means checking out our MLB expert picks! That said, along with Kikuchi, there are other prime targets to pick on like Jeffrey Springs. Therefore, another bookmark that you’ll want is our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/11: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

It’s safe to say that after yesterday’s slate, we have plenty more to break down when it comes to our MLB home run picks. That means before even the pitchers like the ones noted above, as we first check in with our very own MLB weather report. We want to know about wind, humidity, the chance of games getting postponed and more.

That way, we know which locations we want to break down pitchers for first, which means the basics like righty/lefty splits and underlying metrics like barrel rates. Of course, hitters themselves are actually swinging those barrels, so we check out their hard-hit rates, launch-angle sweet-spot rates and more.

Along with bullpen considerations, we have plenty to cover as we fully dive into each of our top three MLB home run picks for today!

Randy Arozarena (+356)

We made sure to point out Jeffrey Springs above, as he’s been atop the list of pitchers allowing the most homers virtually all season. That’s despite having missed multiple weeks, and as if that didn’t excite us enough, he’s pitching at home tonight! In other words, the Triple-A Sutter Health Park that is optimal for MLB home run picks cashing.

The A’s lefty starter is taking on the Seattle Mariners tonight, so we have a few top targets to consider. We’ve had Julio Rodriguez hit for us multiple times and Cal Raleigh has found his swing down the stretch. Julio homered yesterday and Cal still hasn’t been elite vs. lefties, so we’re going to ride with the other notable guy worth targeting.

The left fielder has a colossal .744 slugging vs. righties the past month to pair with Springs’ .279 ISO allowed to righties. So, let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Randy Arozarena hitting a HR (+356 at DraftKings). 

Dylan Crews (+525)

Another lefty starter that we’ve made sure to pick on is Yusei Kikuchi, as he missed nearly four full months of the season. When he returned, he allowed multiple homers in back-to-back starts before the Pittsburgh Pirates let us down and made him look good. Well, we aren’t going to let that up-and-down lineup keep us off Kikuchi for more MLB home run picks.

That’s even more true since he’s facing the Washington Nationals at home. Although they haven’t been whole since the trade deadline, they are still the third-best lineup vs. lefties in terms of the great wRC+ metric. That is largely thanks to James Wood, but with CJ Abrams not being great lefty vs. lefty recently and Kikuchi’s splits, our target isn’t the chalky name.

The Angels lefty has allowed far more power to righties (.222 ISO compared to .130 ISO to lefties). With all that in mind, we’re locking in Dylan Crews hitting a HR (+525 at bet365) as part of our top MLB home run picks today.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+331)

For this last spot, it was the Rangers vs. Diamondbacks series for us when it was expected that Merrill Kelly would be toeing the rubber. If he ends up doing so still, we love Corey Seager going yard and staying hot at the plate. However, we need to pivot so that you get the best MLB home run picks NOW, which means the afternoon Wrigley action!

We don’t see massive out-blowing winds, but they aren’t blowing out, either. Even without that classic Wrigley factor, Pittsburgh is starting a rookie reliever, Wilber Dotel, for their bullpen game. All the righty does is throw heat that gets blasted (high average fastball velocity + high hard-hit rates). So, PCA and the Cubs are primed to blast off like they’ve been doing.

It’s a chalk pick, but if we’re going to get him in the +300’s, why not? The soon-to-be NL MVP has a whopping .727 slugging vs. righties the past month, so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks today with Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting a HR (+331 at DraftKings). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Of course, a FREE bonus pick isn’t the only way to add to our top MLB home run picks. We’ve also got you covered with our favorite longshot option…

Let’s just stay right with that afternoon clash with the Pirates lineup. Shota Imanaga has a great matchup for K’s, but he just hasn’t been able to take advantage of such spots more often than not. His pitch count rises like crazy and the Chicago bullpen has been extremely poor, so we love Pittsburgh as a whole for locking in an MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Did you think we were done there? It’s Friday and we just had to struggle through a five-game slate; let’s keep the MLB home run picks coming with a for-fun parlay…

Cal’s the pivot from Randy, Wood is the pivot from Crews and, you guessed it - Suzuki is the pivot from PCA. Let’s make the most of some Friday night fireworks with the best MLB home run picks for today!