September is starting after an amazing stretch to close out August - a WEEK of MLB HR picks winning, four straight days of the FREE newsletter bonus pick hitting, AND back-to-back days of longshot winners! That’s awesome, but we always want to keep being better, and while we’ll admit some scary arms are toeing the rubber like Gavin Williams and Jesus Luzardo, there are also guys that we’ve enjoyed picking on as of late, like Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Irvin. They’re far from the only worthy targets, and we’ve analyzed the entire slate to provide you with the absolute best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Given the aforementioned studs on the mound, if you want to target them for markets beyond just MLB home run picks, then check out our MLB expert picks. Along with our live-streamed morning show of best bets, you’re sure to have all your bases covered. That said, let’s get into our top MLB home run predictions today, starting with just the names themselves:

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/1: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

If you’ve continued on, it means that you want more than just the names of our MLB home run picks, and we’ve got you covered there as well. So, let’s talk about the factors considered when deciding on those names. Especially since we have new series starting up that we haven’t seen yet this week, you’ll want to start where we start - with our MLB weather report.

Then we can start diving into the starters on the mound, prioritizing the ones that we know are solid targets over those that we know we generally avoid when making our MLB home run picks. We’ll see how they match up against their current opponent in terms of righty/lefty splits, expected ISO allowed, and more.

Hitters themselves get the same treatment, and overall bullpens also have to be taken into account. You’ll see plenty of other factors that affect our MLB home run picks like barrel rates, hard-hit rates and more below, so let’s get into it!

Matt Olson (+300)

After the Washington Nationals wrapped up a long weekend series with the Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves had their one-off with the San Francisco Giants, the two NL East squads now face one another. Given the Nats' bullpen, MLB home run picks are always on the table, and on top of that, we’ve got Jake Irvin on tap.

Both sides of the plate can get the job done, so if you really hate seeing the very rare back-to-back days targeting the same guy, you can always swap to Drake Baldwin for a different lefty or Ronald Acuna, Jr. for a righty swap. We understand the fatigue, but Olson is just too great of a southpaw at the plate to ignore with this great of a matchup.

It’s only happened once or twice all season, but we’re using the same name on consecutive days with our MLB home run picks by leading them off with Matt Olson hitting a HR (+300 at ProphetX).

Shohei Ohtani (+285)

When it comes to the nightcap of Cardinals vs. Dodgers, the pitching matchup of Michael McGreevy vs. Eric Lauer is strong for both sides. However, when it comes to pure power, we’d prefer to focus on McGreevy’s regression combined with LA’s star-studded lineup. After all, they don’t need the extra help to cash MLB home run picks.

We also see the Cardinals with the inferior bullpen, so it’s all adding up to the Dodgers taking advantage of their HR-friendly ballpark. Against McGreevy, it’s all about lefties, as they have a .223 expected ISO against him. We’d consider Freddie Freeman the more consistent hitter, but for dingers, we like Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy a bit more.

For our best MLB home run picks today, we’ll ride his .265 expected ISO vs. righties and a lock in Shohei Ohtani hitting a HR (+285 at ProphetX).

Jordan Walker (+380)

Ok, NOW we get to circle back to Eric Lauer’s problems. While he’s been better for LA than Toronto, he’s allowed four homers across his four August starts and lasted just two innings in his most recent. Both sides of the plate have had success against the lefty, but we’re sticking with a righty for our MLB home run picks.

That’s because the expected ISO of .220 is right on par with the .219 actual, and we could always roll with the skewed .500 ISO of Joshua Baez against lefties. It’s still .280 expected, so it’s a fair pivot, but we prefer the bigger sample of Jordan Walker. After all, he still has a .250 ISO vs. lefties and a .275 expected ISO.

Oh yeah - he’s also the 2026 HR Derby winner. So, let’s round out our top three MLB home run picks for today with Jordan Walker hitting a HR (+380 at ProphetX). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Hitting any of the MLB home run picks above, and even our bonus pick, will be awesome, but a longshot winner provides an even stronger dopamine hit. So, here’s who we’re taking in that spot today for THREE straight:

This Braves righty isn’t one that we’ve used in quite some time, but against the aforementioned Jake Irvin and Nats bullpen, it’s time to do so. He’s got double-digit homers this season despite not having a ton of power thanks to a 37.1% launch-angle sweet-spot rate. That’s among the highest we’ll ever see for a guy who has odds that make him worthy of an MLB home run longshot pick.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

For an even stronger rush, we can keep boosting the odds beyond that longshot spot. We can do so by piecing together multiple MLB home run picks for today and creating our favorite for-fun parlay:

Two pivots from our top three spots plus a guy in the sneaky HR-friendly KC ballpark against their terrible bullpen and starter Randy Dobnak. Enjoy any one of them as standalone MLB HR picks as well, but that’s our favorite trio to piece together!