As the 2026 MLB playoffs roll on, the stakes get higher, but the number of games becomes fewer. Well, there is no NFL to enjoy tonight, so why not make it more exciting with some MLB home run picks? After all, we started the Divisional Round with a Jackson Chourio winner, and tonight, the NLDS matchups are featured again! These are ones we like for dingers more than the ALDS matchups, so we’re all about the action tonight. Let’s make it more valuable with our best MLB home run predictions for tonight!

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

For the first series of Dodgers vs. Braves, we’re going to see an awesome pitching matchup of Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Chris Sale, so if you don’t want to only trust our top MLB home run picks, check out our MLB expert picks. You’ll then be covered with more markets and approaches to the games. That’s also true given that the Brewers vs. Padres series swaps to pitcher-friendly San Diego. As for just the quick names of our best MLB home run predictions for tonight…

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 10/6: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

As mentioned above, these series are swapping locations, so as always, we always start with our MLB weather report. Even though San Diego isn’t known for MLB home run picks cashing, we’ve hit some there in the Wild Card Round already. That also means that we have some of the same starters and hitters to break down.

Some of the primary factors in that regard are hard-hit rates, barrel rates, average exit velocities, righty/lefty splits, slugging, ISO, and launch angles. That’s a lot to run through, but that’s what we’re here for! Along with taking bullpens into consideration, here is why each of the names above made the cut for our best MLB home run picks tonight…

Matt Olson (+440)

Why this guy makes the cut doesn’t even need to be said, as he’s been a perennial top power hitter for a while now. The Braves big lefty was one of the eight hitters with 40+ homers this season, and although the series leaves Dodger Stadium, that’s no problem - Truist Park is no stranger to MLB home run picks cashing, either.

As great as Yamamoto has been for the Dodgers, he’s not always a swing-and-miss type of pitcher. Well, when Olson makes contact, it’s with extreme power. That’s especially true when he has the luxury of facing a righty, as he has a massive .255 ISO against them, and it should be even higher - it’s a .285 expected ISO!

This is a matchup of good-on-good, but we’re taking the guy at the plate and leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Matt Olson hitting a HR (+440 at DraftKings). 

Drake Baldwin (+733)

That’s right, we’re sticking with the Braves against Yamamoto. We see more opportunities there than with Chris Sale on the bump, even with how stacked the Dodgers lineup is. Furthermore, you can see that this is an extremely valuable play that could even be considered a longshot. Either way, this is part of our top three MLB home run picks for tonight!

The Braves catcher may not have had 40+ homers like his teammate above, but he’s a remarkable hitter who won NL Rookie of the Year last season for a reason. Perhaps the #1 reason is his all-around talent at the plate. He ranks with an 86th percentile or better in terms of xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, AND bat speed.

Yes, that was a laundry list, but it boils down to another southpaw for Atlanta making the cut for our top MLB home run picks today; we’re locking in Drake Baldwin hitting a HR (12%, so +733, at Novig). 

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+497)

Ok, now we can head out west where Braves vs. Dodgers leaves LA, but Brewers vs. Padres heads to San Diego. Again, we know that it’s a pitcher’s park, but we’ve cashed here recently already, and apparently, no one’s told the Padres superstar. Despite struggling in the department of MLB home run picks to start the season, he’s come on VERY strong.

In fact, Tatis has come on so strong down the stretch that he was still able to end the season with 25 homers. Well, now he gets to face Brewers starter Dustin May rather than The Miz and Logan Henderson. That’s a better matchup off the rip, and on top of that, May is actually a righty that has allowed more power to fellow righties rather than lefties.

Tatis has already turned his power struggles around in a big way, so we love adding to our best MLB home run picks for tonight with Fernando Tatis Jr. hitting a HR (+497 at DraftKings). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

There are just two games tonight, yet we have a top three, FREE newsletter bonus pick, and on top of all that, an incredible longshot option!

It’s back to the Dodgers vs. Braves series for us, and while we prefer to target Yamamoto over Chris Sale, this price is just too good to pass up. Keep in mind - this is a guy who has been a top three target multiple times, and he’s had odds in the +200s before! He also has an amazing .238 ISO vs. lefties, so this just doesn’t even feel right; lock in the Dodger as your best MLB home run longshot pick for tonight. 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

You already know what’s coming - even more value, and this is perhaps our biggest for-fun parlay of the entire season! It comes at an awesome time with so much on the line, so here are the MLB home run picks that we’re piecing together:

That’s yet another lefty for Atlanta plus two targets in Brewers vs. Padres for you. Pluck one out as an individual play or just piece together our top three if you wish. Either way, let’s make the most of today’s best MLB home run picks!