It may be the middle of the week, but with our best MLB home run picks, you can make it just as exciting as a Friday night! Sure, we may have some aces on the mound to deter some spots like Tarik Skubal and Cam Schlittler, but we’ve got all 30 teams on the diamond. That includes hitter-friendly environments like Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, so we’ll have no problems continuing to provide you with the best MLB home run predictions!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Alongside Skubal and Schlittler is Jesus Luzardo, not to mention other worthwhile starters to target, so consider some K props by checking out our MLB expert picks. For those only worried about MLB home run picks like the ones we’re about to dive into, simply utilize our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/29: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Those three names are our top MLB home run predictions for today, but why? Well, for starters, you’ll always want to check out our MLB weather report for the most favorable hitting conditions. We already noted Sutter Health Park; the Great American Ball Park is also in play, but we still need to consider the starters.

For example, Grayson Rodriguez in Angel Stadium can make it feel like Coors Field for MLB home run picks at times. As for the hitters themselves, we’ve got to break down their righty/lefty splits, which pitch types they hit best, expected metrics like slugging percentages and more. You’ll see some of those “more” factors as we fully break down our top MLB home run picks below!

Willson Contreras (+229)

We’re going to lead off with both the chalk location and the chalk odds of the day. That means Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, where we actually haven’t seen a ton of runs being scored. However, Jacob Lopez can help Boston bounce back from last night’s loss by helping a few of their guys cash in with MLB home run picks.

When it comes to the A’s lefty starter, we’re going to want to focus on right-handed hitting, as they have a .500 slugging against him compared to lefties with a .338. The only downside of Lopez is that he keeps his exit velocities low, but this is where Contreras comes in - he has a 96th percentile bat speed!

That’s helped lead him to a 94th percentile expected slugging of .513, so we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Willson Contreras hitting a HR (+229 at Novig).

Isaac Paredes (+495)

Ok, after such a chalky pick, we absolutely have to provide you with more value. After seeing Yordan Alvarez absolutely launch one last night and how much the aforementioned Grayson Rodriguez struggles against lefties, it’s no shock that his odds are in the +180’s. In other words, we won’t make such a low price point part of our top MLB home run picks today.

While southpaws may absolutely obliterate Grayson, it’s not as if righties aren’t performing well either - they still have a .471 slugging against him! As for the Houston righty, he has also preferred facing fellow righties on the mound, hitting all 14 of his homers against them! He may not have Yordan power, but he can absolutely get the job done.

Along with his .437 slugging against righties, we’re grabbing great value with Isaac Paredes hitting a HR (+495 at FanDuel) as part of our best MLB home run picks for today. 

Wyatt Langford (+425)

Tampa Bay isn’t generally a spot you see us target, but with the Rays going with a bullpen game, the Rangers lineup looks primed for a few dingers. We saw Joc Pederson double dong the other night, but since we aren’t always guaranteed he’s in the lineup, we aren’t even seeing odds for MLB home run picks for him, but that’s just fine.

When it comes to opener Casey Legumina, it’s actually righties with the better .500 slugging against him. As for the rest of the Rays bullpen, they are an interesting case. While they have a middle-of-the-pack overall bullpen ERA, they’ve allowed 64 homers! For perspective, the two teams right above and below them in terms of ERA have allowed 41 and 47 homers.

We love getting a +400’s price for the left fielder that has a .516 slugging against both righties and lefties, so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Wyatt Langford hitting a HR (+425 at bet365).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

That FREE newsletter bonus pick is one way to add to our top MLB home run picks, but there are still others. For example, our favorite longshot spot (we recently cashed +900)!

We’ve got a slightly different spin on today’s target in the sense that we’re loving the spot primarily due to a bullpen rather than anything else. After all, how long will we see Zack Littell on the mound? He’s just as poor as the Nationals bullpen, allowing the league-most 76 (next-closest is 67 - all the memes for you), so just about anyone for Toronto could go yard, and the second baseman is a great player even without being known for power.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

We’ve even got one more approach for you. Some fans love round robin action for MLB home run picks, but as for a straight-up, for-fun parlay, here’s what we’re rolling with.

Rather than banking on a longshot, these are three guys who are more known for round-trippers. No matter which approach you love most, take full advantage of our best MLB home run picks for today however you’d like!